All of the pieces are coming together for a decent rain Looking at the low-level water vapor image from 3:20 AM Thursday shows the upper low moving to the southeast toward the Carolinas. Some convection has popped ahead of a developing surface low near the DelMarVa. In my eye, it’s not all that impressive, with the upper low past maturity and the dry slot working around its core. The moisture hose from the south isn’t overly appealing to me. Plenty of dry air over our region may eat away at some of the potential rainfall and delay its arrival. What the system has working for it is the warm water over the Atlantic, which will feed moisture into two surface lows that will bring a decent, much-needed rainfall to the region.  Thursday 7 AM (12z) to Monday 7 AM (12z) – Pending on the region, this is either a three-day (north/east) or a four-day (west/south) event that will have periods of light to moderate precipitation, areas of locally dense fog and drizzle, and dry slots working in at times. Thursday into Friday ideas support more of the way of precipitation for the south with a decent amount for the west. A new ocean low forms to the southeast and boomerangs to the northwest on Saturday which will bring a decent charge of rain along with snow to the higher elevations and the Quebec border regions during the day into Saturday night. Light snow and/or rain showers are expected on Sunday along with a stiff northwest breeze as a parting gift as the surface low weakens and upper-level ridging shoves it out heading into Monday.  Rainfall amounts from Thursday through Sunday run in the 1-2” range across most of the state. Dry air will be the enemy and the main concern for bust potential over the north, where ¾”-1” of liquid equivalent may be all that comes from it. Guidance is relatively consistent with rainfall streaks over the south, which pushes amounts higher in the 1½-2” range, but that will depend on how the first of the two ocean lows develop. Higher elevations get the higher totals thanks to orographic lifting with the northeast wind throwing moisture at the hills.  For the hills, the timing of the flip to snow is dependent on the timing of development of the secondary low offshore Friday night into Saturday, along with the intensity of it. This will draw in the cold air from the north bring temperatures aloft below freezing. I am a bit concerned about model ideas for snow totals given the fact that the new low develops well east of the benchmark 40°N/70°W point south of Nova Scotia then wheels into the Northumberland Straits by Saturday night as a potential sub-980mb storm. On that trajectory, it favors more snow toward the Crown with lesser amounts for the western slopes. Dry air comes along with the northerly breeze. I am still thinking 6”+ for the Whites and Katahdin with 3-6” possible for the peaks of the taller ski hills, starting off as slop and ending as fluff. Some charity flakes are likely on Sunday before the system departs later in the day and the moisture hose shuts off.  The wind is not overly concerning through Saturday. It will be gusty at times from the northeast, but nothing too crazy. Once the secondary low reaches the vicinity of Prince Edward Island and reaches the point of maturity, the wind shifts to the northwest, and that is when it gets concerning for Sunday. A wise person would prepare for power outage potential, as wind gusts could reach 30-45 mph during the day and subside Sunday night into Monday. Expect wind chills to feel winterlike in the teens and 20s over the interior, and plan accordingly. Temperature outlook through Wednesday   Always have MULTIPLE ways to receive weather alerts. Stay aware, stay on alert, and stay safe. - Mike PRINT MEDIA: Feel free to quote and cite my work here for your stories. Please give me the professional courtesy of knowing that you are referencing my material so I can read your final product and acknowledge it on my media and link it on the PTW IN MEDIA page here on the website. Feel free to send me a message via the Facebook page or Twitter (X) to get my phone number if necessary. Thank you! NOTE: The forecast information depicted on this platform is for general information purposes only for the public and is not designed or intended for commercial use. For those seeking pinpoint weather information for business operations, you should use a private sector source. For information about where to find commercial forecasters to assist your business, please message me and I will be happy to help you. |
Mike Haggett
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