The freeze is on A breezy and much cooler day is on tap for the region as high pressure enters the area. A northwest breeze can be stiff at times, with gusts in the teens and 20s, and exceeding 30 mph in the higher elevations. High temperatures for the day range from the 40s in the north to the 50s in the south. The wind settles down in the evening, and with a clear sky, the combination sets up radiational cooling, bringing a widespread frost threat. FREEZE WARNINGS are posted where the growing season technically continues. If verified, it will be the last one of the season, as these alerts will be discontinued by NWS. Expect frost potential again Saturday morning. Two things that I am monitoring, which I will update on (day job permitting) during the day, are the latest information from the Drought Monitor, along with the potential for rain for southern areas & coastal surf associated with the Nor'Easter that is expected to develop to the south over the weekend. Is there a window for that storm to push north? That is what I am looking to find out. Stay tuned! Extreme drought region doubles in the past week NOTE: This assessment does not include rainfall amounts from Wednesday. As anticipated, the drought has worsened given the dry conditions experienced from Tuesday, September 30th, to Tuesday, October 7th. The rain received on Wednesday helps to reduce the wildfire risk, but not much else. Time will tell if the NorEaster developing to the south this weekend will work its way far enough north to help keep the drought in check by the time the observation window closes next Tuesday morning.  It will take a series of heavy rain events to get out of the hole we are in, which has been developing over the past 17 months.  There is some hope on the horizon as the NOAA NWS Climate Prediction Center indicates the potential for heavy rain late next week. Time will tell if that idea will hold up. Are you experiencing a dry or low water well? Please fill out this survey and report it to the Maine Emergency Management Agency. Your report is extremely valuable! Questions on the next one... I am keeping an eye on this one. Models are flopping around a bit; part of that is that one of the pieces of upper-level energy associated with it is in the radiosonde (weather balloon) blackout zone in Alaska/Northern Yukon, where data is sparse, along with data missing from other locations due to NOAA layoffs back in the spring. It may take some time, possibly even Saturday, before we see confidence increase in the outcome, one way or the other. The southern and coastal areas of Maine are on the fringe. A cool, dry area of high pressure is moving into the region, which will persist through most of the weekend, and is one piece of this puzzle. Guidance is mixed on the upper-level ridge that is nosing in from the southeast. Some ideas are stronger, which would keep the developing storm more to the south; others are weaker, allowing it to creep more into the north. An approaching clipper to the northwest and the timing of it dictates how long the rain hangs around, IF (and that is a BIG IF) it makes it into the region. At this point, southern areas have a chance of rain, with York County having the best opportunity, given the current setup, with lesser amounts to the north. Whether that is scattered showers or steadier rain, time will tell. An east/northeast wind could be an issue along the shorelines, which may bring a bit of surge and surf that could cause some minor flooding issues with the astronomical tides. However, it is too early to get into specifics. Northern areas will likely sit this one out with little fanfare, thanks to the surface high that is expected to be positioned to the east over the Canadian Maritimes. I will continue to monitor and will update on Friday and into the weekend. Offseason lodging rates are in effect at Spinney's! The PTW Weather Wall updates 24/7 Your financial support keeps the lighthouse lit |
Mike Haggett
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