Dry air, breezy conditions raise fire danger levels The National Weather Service offices in Gray and Caribou have issued a special weather statement due to elevated fire danger concerns across a significant portion of the state. With a cold front approaching from the west, wind speeds from the south are expected to increase during the day. With a dry airmass overhead due to a surface high to the east, this will dry out moisture from tree debris and dormant grass, posing a wildfire threat. The Maine Forest Service updates its daily wildfire danger report around 9 AM. Please use extreme caution with any flammable materials. The breeze is expected to continue into the overnight hours ahead of the boundary that will bring showers in the overnight into Friday. Update on showers & storms into the weekend Friday 2 AM (06z) to Sunday 8 PM (00z Monday) - Guidance continues to bring an assortment of ideas on timing and rainfall amounts, which has much to do with a debate on how strong the offshore ridge will be. A weaker ridge and a faster passage of the boundary equals less rainfall. A stronger ridge slows down the progression of the front, thus increasing the chance for more rainfall. The idea presented here, the Canadian GEM, provides a rough estimate of timing, which is roughly in the middle of the road. The initial band of showers overnight into Friday washes out as it heads eastward. The stronger frontal boundary enters the region on Saturday and brings rain showers with a chance of a snarky storm (cloud cover dependent), which could bring a quick hit of rainfall, along with thunder, gusty winds, and hail. Models indicate considerable disagreement on when precipitation ends. I am siding on the chance that southern and eastern areas have a chance for showers Sunday morning before clearing out roughly midday.  In the short term, the Weather Prediction Center idea of potential rainfall amounts for Friday is a reasonable estimate. Higher elevations may pick up a ¼" with lesser amounts elsewhere. The parched areas of eastern Maine may get a light shower or a sprinkle, but that may be it.  There are ideas out there of the potential for 1-2" of rainfall for the higher elevations, but those are betting on a slow-moving and juicer outcome, and I am not there with that idea. Convective feedback with storm potential over the south may be influencing ideas. I do think ½-1" of rainfall across much of the state is a fair bet. While the timing isn't great for weekend plans, we need it any way we can get it at this point. Crowe's offers emergency services statewide Outlook and temperatures into next week Forecast model ideas for long-range temperatures have not yet caught up with the potential for radiational cooling that could bring frost to the interior on Tuesday morning. This will be monitored, and gardeners should prepare. After the weekend rainfall, dry times are expected to return next week.  The PTW Weather Wall updates 24/7 Your financial support keeps the lighthouse lit |
Mike Haggett
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