Lower dew points settling in over most areas The good news is dew point temperatures have dropped into much more comfortable levels for all but the far south. The cold front that passes through the region Monday is on track to stall out over Southern New England. Southern areas dealing with morning showers get a break on rainfall until evening when a weak area of low pressure returns the risk of showers overnight into Wednesday morning. Northern areas can expect the most sun of anywhere in the region, but are subject to some wildfire smoke and the risk of an afternoon shower. There could be some sprinkles or light shower activity across for areas south of The County as mid and low level waves may produce a few drops to a smattering. The sky clears out over the north Tuesday night and temperatures plummet into the upper 40s for the Allagash as radiational cooling kicks in. Most of the region falls back into the 50s, with a few 60s for the shorelines to start Wednesday. A few early morning showers are possible for the south Wednesday morning. As the upper level trough moves in, it shoves the stalled boundary away, allowing for increasing sun where clouds start off, with a seasonably cool and comfortable day with 70s for most of the state. Thursday appears to be dry with clouds on the increase. Southern areas may get a late afternoon or evening shower as moisture from Debby moves northeast.  What does Debby do? Confidence is increasing for a wet Friday and Saturday, with Sunday a mystery at this point. Atmospheric blocking makes for forecast challenges of longer term. How much rain comes is indicative of what kind of condition the remnants of Debby will be in by the time it gets here, whether a wave of rain or in the form of a low pressure, whether a hybrid or extra-tropical. In the past we've seen what is meteorologically known as predecessor rain events, also known as a pre-frontal trough. With the blocking going on, this initiates a squeeze play as the ridges to the west and east battle it out and the moisture gets caught in the middle.  In these types of scenarios, the risk of overperformance one is to stay mindful of. The dew points climb back up to tropical levels and bring areas of heavy rainfall. Rainfall rates and amounts will be a factor as to where flash flooding is likely to occur. Much of the state has seen enough recent rainfall to raise the risk. While the main stem rivers are not a concern at this point, depending on the duration of the event will dictate if they end up being an issue in the longer term. This is one the of many ideas still to be figured out.  The MidAtlantic and Southern New England areas continue to be on track to get the highest amount of rainfall of anywhere in the northeast. If this idea holds, coastal Maine may get in two or three days the normal amount of rain in three to six weeks. Stay tuned. Weather information you won't find anywhere else |
Mike Haggett
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