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I want to express my gratitude to those who have made financial contributions via PayPal or Venmo, tweaked their monthly donation through Patreon, and sent checks in the mail. It’s always encouraging to see how my efforts here are appreciated. I never imagined what this would turn into when I started in January 2012, when my curiosity over a blown forecast began this journey of wanting to understand why, and its evolution has turned into a mission. You make my 2 AM or earlier wake-up calls, followed by long days at the actual job, along with sacrificing sleep and family time, worth it. For those who have yet to contribute, I would appreciate your support, and thank you. The setup through the rest of the week As our current rainmaker departs to the east Tuesday morning, a dry slot, some sun, and breezy conditions follow behind it. After a dry, quiet start to Wednesday, low pressure over the Rockies absorbs moisture over the southeast and brings snow for the interior and rain for the coast Wednesday night into early Thursday. A sharp, deep trough works into the region heading into the weekend, bringing an extra quilt, more firewood to the stove, and three dog nights into the start of Christmas week. A quick hitter on the way Wednesday night Wednesday 4 PM (21z) to Thursday Noon (17z) – Clouds increase on Wednesday as the cold front approaches. Precipitation appears to hold off until after dark. Looking at 1-hour snowfall rates as a guide here shows it develops and moves eastward into the overnight, reaching eastern areas by around 1-2 AM Thursday. Snowfall intensity could rip along the coastal front, but given that it will be wet in that region, what becomes briefly heavy may not amount to much accumulation. By 5 AM Thursday, snow tapers off over the southwest, ends right around sunrise over eastern areas, and by late morning over the north. Snow showers are expected to continue through the afternoon in the western mountains and Quebec border regions until late afternoon.  The shorelines escape with mainly rain, with the potential for a few large wet snowflakes mixed in at times. Where the coastal front develops and how far inland it goes will dictate who may need to brush some slop off their vehicle and/or the steps and entryways before heading out for the day. The sun will come out and help with cleanup over the coastal plain. The mountains and north may not get that kind of help as clouds are expected to linger through the rest of the day. The drier the snow over the interior, the more accumulation there is. The ski hills could pick up 4-5” of fluff, and the shorelines could pick up ¼-½” of rainfall. Outlook into the weekend Thursday 7 AM (12z) to Sunday 7 PM (00z Monday) – The aforementioned sharp, deep trough begins to take shape Thursday into Friday. Low pressure situated along the boundary over Minnesota hitches up for the ride. As the trough negatively tilts, it fires up an ocean storm well to the southeast heading into Friday night. The trough drags down the coldest airmass of the season thus far that will hang around through the start of next week. Upper-level ridging and a surface high bring warmer, more seasonable temperatures heading into Christmas.  Forecast trends are pushing the phasing of the polar and Pacific jet further to the southeast, which means DownEast areas have the best chance for light snow as the storm intensifies on its way to Newfoundland. The rest of the region appears to get shut out at this point. With a dry trend in its wake, the chance for a White Christmas for the southern shorelines seems unlikely, with the storm too far away to bring snowfall. What snowfall comes with the Wednesday night system will be it until after the holiday has passed. 10-day Temperature Outlook Make it routine to check the PTW Weather Wall for updates Appreciation for financial help to keep the coffee pot going, help me pay the bills, and train future forecasters Always have MULTIPLE ways to receive weather alerts. Stay aware, stay on alert, and stay safe. - Mike PRINT MEDIA: Feel free to quote and cite my work here for your stories. Please give me the professional courtesy of knowing that you are referencing my material so I can read your final product and acknowledge it on my media and link it on the PTW IN MEDIA page here on the website. Feel free to send me a message via the Facebook page or Twitter (X) to get my phone number if necessary. Thank you! NOTE: The forecast information depicted on this platform is for general information purposes only for the public and is not designed or intended for commercial use. For those seeking pinpoint weather information for business operations, you should use a private sector source. For information about where to find commercial forecasters to assist your business, please message me and I will be happy to help you. |
Mike Haggett
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