A dry day to round out 2024 A special weather statement has been issued for patches of black ice for the morning commute. The threat diminishes as temperatures rise above freezing across the state, presenting our last mild day in the foreseeable future, with upper-30s for the interior and mid-to-upper-40s for the shorelines. Clouds are expected to increase later in the day and overnight as our next system works into the region for New Year's Day. Ball drop forecast: Expect areas of fog for the south and east, with the slight chance of a shower or drizzle over the south. Temperatures range from the upper 20s for Allagash region to around 40° for the southwest shorelines, with a bit of a breeze from the east. Interior snow, coastal rain to start January Wednesday 1 AM (06z) to Thursday 1 PM (18z) – There is still some disagreement in model ideas for the track of the system, which could impact which areas get snow, pockets of a wintry mix of junk, or plain rain. The general idea is that it would be snowier for the western mountains and Quebec border areas. Confidence drops off over the foothills, central areas, and on over into the DownEast interior. A jog in track 20-30 miles west or east could be the difference in what is frozen, liquid, or junky in between. Precipitation is expected to end over the south by late afternoon and over the east by late evening. The snow shower machine is expected to continue over the north and west into Thursday.  This is a wet snow situation over the interior. That, along with track discrepancies, gives this a low-confidence forecast. The higher hilltops should do well, but there could be some slop which may knock totals down a bit. Any junk that mixes in is another factor that may limit snowfall amounts. Once cooler, drier air works in on the backside, the powder will come and blow around as snow showers continue through Thursday. Wind / shoreline concerns The storm is expected to intensify as it heads to the north/northeast, increasing the wind speeds during the day. Wind gusts in the 25-35 mph range are possible. The storm runs into a roadblock upstream on Thursday, which will slow it down and increase the northwest wind as it reaches maturity. Isolated power outages are possible. The breeze remains rather stiff through Friday, with a bit of a break on Saturday. Wind speeds will increase Sunday into Monday. There is a bit of a concern for minor coastal flooding and splash-over for the high tide in the 11 AM hour. Seas are expected to build to around 5-9 feet and, with the southerly wind component, may bring in a foot of storm surge. Tides are building toward new moon astronomical levels, but early enough in the cycle where impacts appear minor. Expect the surf to build into Thursday, before subsiding on Friday. The cold moves in for an extended visit This sped up loop of apparent temperatures from Thursday morning through the end of the first full week of January should drive the point home that the area will be in the freezer for a while.  Looking at Sanford in the eyes of the GFS ensemble shows the chance of a long period of below normal cold. It will be colder to the north. This will help ice up the ponds and lakes which will make the ice fisherman happy. While it won't be as ridiculously cold as it will be to the west, it will be cold enough. Any precipitation that comes is likely to be of the frozen concoction. Are we going to get a big dumper? The ideas are inconclusive at this point, but with the trough as deep over the south as guidance suggests, it may simply be an extended cold snap with little to offer for snow until the trough block relaxes. Check The PTW Weather Wall the morning |
Mike Haggett
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