Not optimal, but not a washout
As I was having coffee at 2:45 AM while looking over data from my weather station, one stat stood out to me as I entered it into a spreadsheet: 23 consecutive days of a high temperature of 80° or more. While this isn’t the longest streak I have recorded (30 days in July/August 2022), it’s been a warm stretch for those in the south. The long stretch of warm weather will snap today as temperatures top out slightly below average for the first time since late June.
Tuesday 6 AM to Wednesday Midnight - I should preface this by saying that lately, I have not been happy with the short-term model ideas in how they articulate precipitation. This is why I have not shown many loops this summer. I look at satellite and radar, then at model ideas, take another long belt of coffee, and then think about how I will write about it. I am sharing the HREF, which is an ensemble view of the short-term models that have been tweaked to cut out the convective feedback. It does a decent job, but it also has its quirks. Seeing the downstream activity makes me believe that this idea is the best of the various available options regarding coverage and timing.
Scattered showers through the morning taper off to isolated activity in the afternoon. The sun may stir the pot with a pop-up thunderstorm later in the day in areas where it gets out. With the dew points back up into the 60s, expect a warm night, with a chance of a shower or rumble through early Wednesday. 
Tuesday will be the wettest day of the week, with the best chance for showers and storms. Southern areas in abnormally dry conditions may not benefit much from this unless a potluck shower later in the day occurs. Interior regions may get a dumper that could bring 1-2”+ of rainfall, which may cause runoff and ponding on roadways.
For Wednesday, the best chance for showers is for the coastal plain, with the mountains and north staying dry. Fog could be a PITA along the shorelines. Showers and storms are possible Thursday as a cold front passes through. Showers are possible for the mountains and north for Friday. Outlook into next week
Tuesday 8 AM (12z) to next Wednesday 8 AM (12z) - This precipitable water loop (moisture in the air column) presents a fair idea of what the state can expect over the next week. After the cold front moves through Thursday, drier air starts the weekend. Ridging from the west begins to move in Sunday into Monday, bringing the high heat and humidity along with it.
Prepare for a steamy end of July into the first weekend of August. Another heat wave in the works? For some areas, it's a fair bet.
Stay tuned. PTW is at a turning point...
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Mike Haggett
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