Unsettled and warm through the weekend Two upper-level highs and a trough are the general idea of how the next week is going to play out. It’s typical for this time of year to have strong ridging over the west and the Bermuda High over the Atlantic. The “death ridge” heads northwest and expands, which will bring high heat and dry conditions. The Bermuda High moves a bit to the west, continuing the moisture flow from the south that keeps the dew points up. Disturbances cut across the northern tier of the states and bring chances for showers and strong to severe storms daily into the foreseeable future. When the sun comes out, heat ramps up, and the threat of thunderstorms comes with it. The National Hurricane Center is keeping close watch on tropical development later this week. While it's far too early to predict what happens with that, it's clear indication that August has arrived and as conditions turn more favorable for storm development, it will need to be monitored closely. Strong to severe storms possible for Tuesday With the upper low moving north into Quebec along with southerly flow raising dew points up to sultry levels, when the sun comes out, the thunder guns are likely to come out with it. The low has enough cold air associated with it to bring the risk for hail as the freezing levels of the atmosphere are lower, and the spin of the low brings the damaging wind concerns.  Tuesday 6 AM to Wednesday 3 AM - Morning showers pass through the region as the low heads north. A pseudo-warm front tucks in behind it to stir the atmospheric pot in the afternoon. The main area of concern for storms is over the western foothills into central areas as the HRRR model idea suggests. After sunset, the severe threat diminishes, but rumbles are possible into the overnight before this round tapers off over eastern areas in the wee hours of Wednesday morning.  Localized heavy rainfall is a concern where storms break out. Where the sun breaks out, it gets steamy quick. MidCoast and DownEast shorelines may be dealing clouds and areas fog & drizzle all day, and my idea of temps hitting 70° may be a bit of a pipe dream, but if the sun breaks briefly, the temps will get there with ease. Southwestern areas may hit 90° and with the heat index, upper 90s may be the ambient temperature achieved there.  Wash, rinse, repeat pattern continues This warm front has intrigued me as I have been sifting through model ideas over the past few days. This is set up similar to an inside runner in winter with the St. Lawrence River track. The heavy rain signal is definitely there. Cloud cover will dictate what sort of atmospheric drama comes along with it, but I won't rule out the threat for damaging wind and an isolated tornado threat IF the sun gets out. I don't trust warm fronts. I don't trust what models do with warm fronts. I definitely do not trust warm fronts with this kind of humidity around. The element of surprise to the unsuspecting is certainly there. For what it is worth, the "cold front" trailing behind it offers no relief from the stickiness as it falls apart as Thursday's disturbance moves in.  In case you haven't figured it out yet, we're in a daily dumper watch until further notice. Until the humidity breaks (which may not be until the second weekend in August for any meaningful period of time) this will be an ongoing issue. Heavy rainfall over Grafton County, New Hampshire during the overnight hours of Monday into Tuesday triggered a flash flood warning, and given the pattern, there are likely to be more of those issued. Please pay close attention to the forecast for the storm and flash flooding potential.  Always have MULTIPLE ways to receive weather alerts. Stay aware, stay on alert, and stay safe. - Mike PRINT MEDIA: Feel free to quote and cite my work here for your stories. Please give me the professional courtesy of knowing that you are referencing my material so I can read your final product and acknowledge it on my media and link it on the PTW IN MEDIA page here on the website. Feel free to send me a message via the Facebook page or Twitter (X) to get my phone number if necessary. Thank you! NOTE: The forecast information depicted on this platform is for general information purposes only for the public and is not designed or intended for commercial use. For those seeking pinpoint weather information for business operations, you should use a private sector source. For information about where to find commercial forecasters to assist your business, please message me and I will be happy to help you. |
Mike Haggett
|
