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Tuesday July 8, 2025

7/8/2025

 

Unsettled but cooler through the rest of the week

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A slow-moving front will exit southern Maine Tuesday night, allowing skies to clear across the state as high pressure builds in from Canada. The Weather Prediction Center has issued a marginal risk for excessive rainfall through Wednesday morning across southern areas, with localized flooding possible. Cooler, drier air will settle in overnight into Thursday, with lows in the 50s and 60s. A broad upper-level trough is expected to remain in place midweek (more on that below), keeping highs in the 70s and supporting isolated showers or storms, mainly in western Maine on Wednesday and again on Thursday if afternoon clearing occurs. Rainfall should stay light. The trough moves east Thursday night into Friday as high pressure and ridging build in, leading to a warmer, drier weekend with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Another trough may bring unsettled weather and higher humidity by early next week. 

Showers with possible thunder for Wednesday

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Tuesday 8 PM (00z Wednesday) to Wednesday 8 PM (00z Thursday) -  This HRRR model GIF shows most of the active convection lingering in the area tonight into tomorrow, especially in the southern portion of the state, due to the frontal boundary slowing down. A few small, isolated showers or weak thunderstorms are possible tomorrow along the southern interior and western foothills. However, the limited spatial coverage suggests that any activity will be fairly short-lived, and therefore shouldn’t cause any major flooding concerns. As high pressure builds in from the north overnight, drier air will gradually filter in, helping suppress further development and allowing skies to clear from north to south.

Pattern remains unsettled through late week,
then improves into the weekend

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Wednesday 8 PM (00z Thursday) to Monday 8 PM (00z Tuesday) - This 500mb heights and vorticity (upper-level energy) map, valid at 00z, shows a broad upper-level low with embedded shortwaves advancing east across the Great Lakes. This will help support shower and thunderstorm activity across western Maine late Thursday into Friday, particularly where any instability can develop. While instability appears relatively low with CAPE (thunderstorm fuel) values below 1000 J/KG and shear remains weak, isolated pop-up thunderstorms will be possible, especially with daytime heating and any localized clearing. Overall, the primary concern remains heavy rain and localized flooding rather than severe weather, as the slow-moving shortwave lifts through New England.
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Wednesday 8 PM (00z Thursday) to Monday 8 PM (00z Tuesday) - This ECMWF precipitable water (total amount of water vapor present in a given vertical cross-section of the atmosphere) GIF shows a sharp moisture gradient across New England, with values exceeding 2 inches along the southern Maine and New Hampshire coasts in the near-term, followed by a steady decrease starting Wednesday afternoon. This supports a continued risk of showers and scattered storms Thursday into Friday across this region, especially with the trough moving in from the west. After the trough exits, drier air presses in from the north, bringing lower PWATs, thus lower humidity and setting the stage for clearing and more comfortable temperatures across the state. A trailing ridge is expected to move into the region Sunday that brings moisture back into the region and brings the risk of showers overnight into Monday. 

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This 5-day precipitation anomaly map, valid from Wednesday night through Tuesday evening, highlights below-or near-average rainfall across much of the Northeast, including Maine. Most of Maine exhibits precipitation anomalies ranging from -0.30 to +0.10 inches, indicating drier-than-normal conditions for this period. A shift to drier air is expected late this week into early next week, due to a long-lasting ridge, which is limiting rainfall chances. While some spotty light showers or storms are possible, overall moisture will be lacking, contributing to this dry trend.

Temperature outlook through Monday

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Today's update prepared by NC State student intern
​Trey Austin

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    Mike Haggett
    Kennebunk, ME

    Weather-Ready Nation
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    Penn State '21

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