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Today's update is presented by Crowe’s Restoration of Arundel. For emergency fire & water damage (pipe bursts, flooding), mold, or biohazard issues in western and southern Maine, call them at 207-467-3152. PTW is also follower funded by readers like you. Please consider a donation for the kind of weather coverage you won't find elsewhere. It is only because of followers and business partners that this website continues. Thank you for making my early mornings and long days worth it!  While this storm appears relatively tame compared to other southeast inside runners the region has experienced, it will likely bring localized problems. This one will be easy to shovel, but it will be a bit of a mess with the combination of warm temperatures, showers that could be locally heavy at times, dense fog, and runoff. The warm front moves in Tuesday Tuesday 10 AM (15z) to Wednesday 1 AM (06z) - An area of high pressure to the southeast of the region begins to spin warmer air and moisture into the region, increasing clouds and bringing the risk of snow and/or rain showers to the area. As the NAM3km idea suggests, some freezing rain may mix in for the higher elevations as cold air damming may have a say. Overall, snow accumulations appear minor, with an inch or two at most for the rooftop of the state and a trivial amount of liquid equivalent to the south and east of there through Tuesday evening. The southwest wind will pick up Tuesday morning and may gust to around 20 mph in spots (30 mph for the mountains) before diminishing overnight. Warm and damp through Thursday Wednesday 6 AM (11z) to Friday Noon (17z) - Regarding snowmelt, dew points are the key indicator of duration and potential. For those who treasure the white gold for the ski hills and snowmobile country, dew point ideas in the upper 30s help mitigate the loss of the snowpack to a certain degree. There will certainly be compaction. Fog will play a role in eating up some of it, but this won't be a total wipeout by any means. For the coastal plain, that is a different story. With dew points punching well into the 40s, the snowpack will likely be reduced to snowbanks as much of the white stuff melts and drains off. Dew points below freezing on Friday and ends the melting in all areas by mid to late morning.  This graphic, produced by the National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center (NOHRC), indicates where the threat of flooding exists for areas south and east of the mountains. Roughly 2-4" of liquid is within the existing snowpack. With the rising dew points combined with the liquid falling from the sky, the water released from the thaw will go somewhere. The ground is frozen with a frost that runs deep. Brooks, streams, and rivers are iced up. The runoff will be looking to escape somewhere. Some areas that rarely see water pool up may occur with this storm. Ice jams for the tributaries are likely for the coastal plain and the smaller rivers around the mountains, with the Swift and Carrabassett Rivers coming to mind. The upper branches of the Penobscot, the Mattawamkeag, and the Middle River in Machias are places to watch. Time will tell with the downstream locations of the Androscoggin, Kennebec, Presumpscot, and Saco rivers what the impact may be there.  Using the European ensemble mean idea as a discussion tool highlights the two regions that could receive the most liquid from this event. The southeast-facing mountain slopes will deal with an orographic lift, which will bring additional rain there. Eastern areas deal with onshore flow and the low-level jet to enhance amounts there. Doing simple math, the 2-4" of water within the snowpack over the coastal plain and 1"+ of rainfall could make this a 3-5" storm. Hence, there is concern about flooding over the coastal plain.  Wednesday 1 AM (06z) to Friday 1 PM (18z) - The heavier rainfall's timing coincides with the low-level jet's arrival Thursday morning. As the parent low tracks into northern Quebec, it weakens and transfers energy into a secondary low, forming to the east. The dry slot works in the region to reduce shower activity, but dense fog and drizzle areas will be an issue as the state sits in the warm sector. While the day won't be a washout, the melting and runoff continue until the trailing cold front passes through Thursday night into Friday morning. Snow showers for the mountains and north come as a parting gift and are expected to continue through Friday afternoon.  Wednesday 7 AM (12z) to Friday 7 PM (00z Saturday) - The wind picks up out of the south during the day on Wednesday, with gusts pushing 25-35 mph along the coastline and the mountains. As the low-level jet passes, wind gusts may reach 35-45 mph in the same locales Thursday morning. As the cold front passes through Friday morning, a west/northwest flow develops and could bring the strongest wind of the event as the ocean low forms and drags cold air back into the region. Gusts on the higher hilltops may push 50-55 mph, with 35-45 mph possible in locations not protected by the mountains. Outlook through early next weekThe wind diminishes Friday night, but a breezy, chilly weekend is likely. Upper-level waves will pass through the region, keeping snow showers in the forecast for the mountains and north and clouds around through Sunday.  Check out the Weather Wall with all your current |
Mike Haggett
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