 Over the weekend, I peeked at model ideas and analyzed the players' dynamics regarding how late the week would unfold. A bit of hype began last Friday. I have been guarded in my response to guidance because we saw this movie recently last week, and it ended up getting a rotten tomato thrown at it since that flick did not end as advertised with precipitation amounts. Since my natural instinct looking at the ideas models are selling is to sniff out bust potential, I remain skeptical as to how this will play out. Any rain is good at this point unless you are a skier taking advantage of the early season offering on the hills, to which you may find what I share here disappointing. A look out to the west at 3:30 AM Tuesday shows two pieces affecting the precipitation amounts from Thursday to Sunday. Unsurprisingly, operational ideas are scattered as they throw darts at the wall, trying to figure out what these two will do. With those components offshore and away from radiosonde (weather balloon) data fetching, along with strong convective activity in the central Gulf of Mexico region creating feedback issues in model ideas, thus juicing up the potential outcome, there are more questions than answers at this point.  Tuesday 7 AM (12Z) to Friday 7 AM (12Z) – Looking at the steering level vorticity (energy) loop shows the pieces in the water vapor image at the top spun into motion. The new upper low is gaining steam Tuesday morning and splits off due to the ridge flexing northward and dives to the southeast. The ridge offshore the Atlantic is taking a beatdown thanks to another upper low to the northeast, opening the door for this weathermaker to dive in. Where it picks up moisture from the southwest, and its timing will be critical to precipitation amounts and snowfall potential for the mountains. Extending the view beyond the loop, the upper low becomes cut off and stalls out, spinning around overhead of the region through the weekend until the building ridge out west shoves it out the area Sunday into Monday.  Wednesday 7 AM (12Z) to Saturday 7 PM (00Z Sunday) – A look at the precipitable water (moisture in the air column) idea from the European ensemble from the Monday overnight run raises concerns about a potential bust in rainfall amounts. The browns show a lot of dry air around. The blues aren’t overly juicy. As steep as the approaching upper low dives to the south, there runs the risk of the moisture feed being cut off soon after the development of the surface low. In that scenario, precipitation amounts would be lower.  A look at the European ensemble mean percentage chance of liquid equivalent totals ≥1” through Sunday shows a fair chance of that amount across much of the region. Most precipitation falls Thursday into early Friday, with scattered to isolated showers over the weekend. The safe bet is that most areas will likely receive ¾”+ of liquid equivalent, with the mountains pushing 1½” over those four days. We’ll take what we can get to take the edge off the wildfire risk, but I don’t expect this to be a drought-buster event. This is a garden-variety rainstorm, minus the damaging wind threats, although it will be breezy at times as the upper-low wobbles around, but little in the way of a power outage threat.  Snowfall amounts will be imperative in timing the changeover from rain to the frozen concoction, as well as how much wet slop is generated before the flip to powder and for how long. A couple of inches is possible for the ski hills to help repair the damage to the limited base the snowmakers are generating there. The taller hills in the Whites and Katahdin appear to get upwards of half a foot or more. While this may be unsettling for the ski community, the good news is cooler temperatures are on the way next week, and confidence is high that a few trails will be open over Thanksgiving weekend. Temperatures and outlook through MondayWith most of the precipitation falling Thursday into early Friday, the weekend won't be a washout. A peek ahead towards Thanksgiving week shows the potential for an unsettled period with rain and elevation snow chances.    Always have MULTIPLE ways to receive weather alerts. Stay aware, stay on alert, and stay safe. - Mike PRINT MEDIA: Feel free to quote and cite my work here for your stories. Please give me the professional courtesy of knowing that you are referencing my material so I can read your final product and acknowledge it on my media and link it on the PTW IN MEDIA page here on the website. Feel free to send me a message via the Facebook page or Twitter (X) to get my phone number if necessary. Thank you! 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Mike Haggett
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