 SYNOPSIS: A warm front approaches the region from the southwest, bringing mixed precipitation overnight into Wednesday morning. A cold front brings another round of light precipitation Wednesday night into Thanksgiving morning. Breezy, chilly conditions statewide with upslope snow showers that may bring several inches of snow to the high terrain are expected through Saturday. A warm front brings interior snow and coastal rain later Sunday and into early Monday. A cold front passes through later on Monday. A potential storm is possible Tuesday/Wednesday next week, which may bring snow to the coast. A LOOK AT THE STEERING LEVEL, along with radar and water vapor on the graphic, may make it appear more ominous than what will come out of it. The moisture to the south battles dry air as it moves northward. Surface high pressure to the south moves eastward along with the upper ridge, while the trough digs to the west, allowing some precipitation to sneak into the area, but it won't be much. SLICK SPOTS ARE POSSIBLE from patchy freezing rain for the mountains and north overnight into Wednesday morning as low-level cold air damming tries to put up a fight, but it will lose since it has no cold surface high to the northeast to support it. I do not expect any widespread issues, as the precipitation amounts appear light. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS favor the coastal plain with the southerly flow with the warm front, where upwards of ½" is possible (locally higher/lower) with less than ¼" over the interior. The cold front that passes through later on Wednesday favors the mountains and north, where upwards of ½" of liquid equivalent is possible, and ¼" or less for the coastal plain. Add that math up, a good portion of the region picks up ½-¾" by the time precipitation ends over the far north around mid-morning Thanksgiving Day. THE MAIN FEATURE is the area of low pressure that is bringing snow to North Dakota and Minnesota. That will syphon energy from the disturbance over northern Illinois and combine it with Wednesday night into Thanksgiving morning near the Abitibi region of western Quebec. Blocking to the east allows the surface high to slowly progress into the area, bringing breezy, chilly conditions and upslope snow showers of the mountains through Saturday. SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY: A warm front is expected to bring light snow to the Quebec border region on Sunday, with rain showers to the south and east in the afternoon. Guidance is mixed on how long the snow will hang on over the interior before flipping to rain later on Sunday into the evening. A cold front passes through on Monday morning, and the wind will pick up once again. A deep trough over the west may spin up a Miller-A-esque Nor'Easter system that may bring snow and/or junk Tuesday into Wednesday. Stay tuned! Family owned and operated emergency service The PTW Weather Wall updates 24/7 Your financial support keeps the lighthouse lit |
Mike Haggett
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