Quick thoughts Looking over guidance in the wee hours of Tuesday, the general idea that I have discussed continues to ring true. The mountains and north have a fair chance to get snow. Closer to the coast presents the risk of a junky mix and wet slop to all rain. This graphic I've created and anointed with a hat tip to NOAA for the source and data gives a fair assessment of where the state of snow accumulation potential for now, with the fine tuning to come.  Looking at this from the ensemble view shows some level of confidence with a Gulf of Maine track. Most ideas come in north of the benchmark "B" point of 40°N/70°W which brings in the coastal front, which is the rain/junk/wet snow line. The lead graphic takes that idea into consideration based on the ensemble data feeds into that. The GEPS Ensembles (Canadian) is roughly middle of the road in ideas. Based specifically on that alone, a 6-12" snow event for the interior appears plausible at this point. The Gulf of Maine track is very helpful for snowfall enhancement for the mountains and north. There remains the threat for pasty wet slop here, perhaps enough to bring some power outages. The concern area for that is for the foothills and coastal interior areas. Wind concerns are subjective to storm intensity and timing, and is one of several factors still to be ironed out.  Thanksgiving 1 AM to Black Friday 7 PM - All of the models ideas indicate a fast moving storm. Using this ensemble mean loop for an idea on timing indicates a stormy day for much of the state for Thanksgiving Day, with steady to heavy precipitation ending from southwest to northeast Thursday night into Friday. The mountains are likely to pick up additional accumulation from snow showers during the day on Friday and winding down by Friday night. It should be noted for skiers that depending on storm intensity, wind holds may be a concern for some of the lifts on Friday. Stay tuned!   Always have MULTIPLE ways to receive weather alerts. Stay aware, stay on alert, and stay safe. - Mike PRINT MEDIA: Feel free to quote and cite my work here for your stories. Please give me the professional courtesy of knowing that you are referencing my material so I can read your final product and acknowledge it on my media and link it on the PTW IN MEDIA page here on the website. Feel free to send me a message via the Facebook page or Twitter (X) to get my phone number if necessary. Thank you! NOTE: The forecast information depicted on this platform is for general information purposes only for the public and is not designed or intended for commercial use. For those seeking pinpoint weather information for business operations, you should use a private sector source. For information about where to find commercial forecasters to assist your business, please message me and I will be happy to help you. |
Mike Haggett
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