Breezy conditions fan fire concerns through Saturday QUALIFIER: For those new to following PTW, I frequently use ensemble ideas, as they provide a wider range of possibilities, including forecast uncertainty, versus deterministic/operational models, which offer a single outcome and can vary in output in volatile patterns. DEFINITION: The loop you see here is that of the European Ensemble Mean in six-hour steps from 7 AM Tuesday to 1 AM Sunday, with the percentage chance of wind gusts greater than or equal to 20 knots (23 mph). Based on the model ensemble idea, the darker red indicates a 90-100% chance of verification of that occurrence. DISCUSSION: As the ridge over the east gets hammered by troughing due to strong upper-level low activity over the Arctic, the friction between the two sets up a battle zone over the northeast and Atlantic Canada. The troughing amplifies cooler, drier air into the region, which, as the ensemble idea suggests, brings breezy conditions to the area. This time of year, the drier air brings in dew point temperatures below freezing, thus drying out tree debris, which turns into fuel for wildfires. The Maine Forest Service Wildfire Danger Reports have recently teetered between moderate and high threats. The meteorology behind these levels considers wind speed and relative humidity. I am seeing reports on moderate days where wildfires have been popping up. Granted, they are small and have been fairly easy to contain, but with much of the state running 60-70% below average in rainfall since September 1st, the threat of wildfires is continuous no matter what level the Maine Forest Service issues. Many of the wildfires that have occurred of late have been the result of people going through the annual ritual of burning leaves or carelessly tossing cigarette butts. Wind or no wind, it does not take much for fires to spread rapidly at this point. The rainfall from Monday night into Tuesday may be enough to dampen the top layer, but underneath that, dry fuel sits. The rule of thumb is to use extreme caution. The common sense approach is to hold off on burning the brush. At this point, I know it is a PITA. Cover it or find a way to dispose it somewhere safe with respect to nature if you have to get rid of it. Embers from charcoal grills and smokers pose problems as well. With little rain in the forecast, there won’t be much in the way of snow either, and it could be later in the month or into December before a widespread soaker of value may come. Please get in touch with your local fire department or forest ranger for burn guidance.   Always have MULTIPLE ways to receive weather alerts. Stay aware, stay on alert, and stay safe. - Mike PRINT MEDIA: Feel free to quote and cite my work here for your stories. Please give me the professional courtesy of knowing that you are referencing my material so I can read your final product and acknowledge it on my media and link it on the PTW IN MEDIA page here on the website. Feel free to send me a message via the Facebook page or Twitter (X) to get my phone number if necessary. Thank you! NOTE: The forecast information depicted on this platform is for general information purposes only for the public and is not designed or intended for commercial use. For those seeking pinpoint weather information for business operations, you should use a private sector source. For information about where to find commercial forecasters to assist your business, please message me and I will be happy to help you. |
Mike Haggett
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