Tuesday, October 28, 2025

10/28/2025

The atmosphere is acting like a gymnastics meet

Thoughts & prayers are with the folks in Jamaica with Melissa. What is coming our way later in the week is a drop in the bucket compared to the historic catastrophe that is turning into. The power of orographic lift will be on display there, as the mountains could see upwards of three feet of rain on the eastern side of the island nation, along with storm surge twelve feet or higher. For those without cable or a streaming service, Fox Weather streams for free on YouTube and is covering the storm.

Tuesday 8 AM (12z) to Saturday 8 PM (00z Sunday) - Looking at steering level heights in relation to climatological average shows the anomalously strong ridge over the north that assists in splitting the upper low passing east of Maine and kicks it west, while a trough digs into the west and gives birth to another upper low which heads to the southeast. The two pieces do a floor dance in a pseudo-Fujiwhara form before combining into a strong trough that digs and then punts Melissa toward the Avalon Peninsula of Newfoundland. The weakening ridge allows northward movement. The negative tilt of the trough is expected to siphon moisture and energy from Melissa heading into the weekend, and to develop a massive storm in the North Atlantic, well away from Maine.

Melissa's indirect interaction with the trough
may enhance rainfall

Tuesday 6 AM (12z) to Saturday 8 PM (00z Sunday) - A look at the integrated water vapor forecast and surface pressure from the European model in the Monday overnight run shows the many gears at play here. Melissa is expected to stay in its own lane, but with the storm expanding in size as it reaches higher latitudes, it will throw moisture into the trough. With the surface low forming near St. Louis, MO, and deepening further to the southeast, the two systems appear to remain close enough that the anti-cyclonic flow of Melissa could set up the potential for entrainment.

The critical thing to keep in mind for rainfall is that Melissa will be tracking 800-1000 miles to the east of the region. How much indirect interaction takes place is a matter of timing. Keep in mind the floor dance. That is an intriguing piece in this.

Tuesday 8 AM (12z) to Saturday 8 PM (00z Sunday) - We've been in the pattern of fast-developing areas of low pressure to the north and west of the region that fizzle out almost as quickly as storms come together, and that is the scenario here. The low developing that drags Melissa up the coast is just that. The precipitable water vapor loop shows the dry slot that develops as it tracks to the northeast. The long-wave boundary along the trough picks up moisture from the Gulf and Melissa as the parent low, which is working into the region, weakens. The result is a quick hit of moderate to heavy rainfall for the area.

A decent rainfall is expected statewide

Most guidance is based on a general 1-3" rainfall for the region. In a recent storm where the Rangeley area picked up 4" thanks to orographic lifting, that idea of overperformance in the mountains is there if the current ideas hold serve.

The dry slot could act as a spoiler.

The general idea is moderate to heavy rainfall with thunder possible Thursday night into Friday morning. The north, east, and west may see showers around Trick-Or-Treat time Friday evening, and I can't completely rule out an isolated shower in southern areas.

Expect the wind to pick up Friday afternoon with breezy conditions through Saturday, with gusts of 30+ mph as the storm intensifies on its way out to sea.

I don't expect any concerns for the shorelines. Some wave action is likely, but with tides running off astronomical levels, any impacts are likely to be minor.

Stay tuned.

Temperatures and outlook into early next week

A cold pool aloft enters the region this weekend, bringing snow showers to the mountains on Saturday. High pressure settles in on Sunday, which reduces the breeze. The pattern turns unsettled as an upper-level trough enters the region heading into midweek.

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