Wildfire risk to continue until a widespread soaker comes The region's current situation with dry October conditions is rare. Traditionally, the month of the harvest moon is the wettest of the whole year for southern areas and is the second wettest on average for the north. The north is on track to finish September/October as the driest on record for that area since observations began in 1941. This is even drier than the same period in 1947 when the worst wildfire to impact the state occurred in southern Maine. What has been missing from the weather pattern? The southwest flow drawing moisture up from the south.  This loop of forecast precipitable water content in the air column through mid-afternoon on Friday shows why it has been dry for so long. Strong ridging and upper-level high pressure have cut off the moisture flow. This cyclonic flow brings decent rains to the Midwest and Plains, but it runs out of juice when it arrives in Maine. The result is weak clipper systems battling dry air all around. I affectionately call these turnip systems because there isn’t much water content involved with them. This is how the rest of the week will play out, and perhaps next week. In order to see the pattern change, we need precipitation here. The ridging needs to move offshore and stall out to allow a southwest flow to take shape. It may be a while yet before we see a flip. Showers on the way for Tuesday night into Wednesday Tuesday 8 PM to Wednesday 8 PM – While showers associated with a warm front will be around, it won’t be a washout. Most of the rainfall comes to the west and the south overnight into early Wednesday. Showers gradually taper off from west to east in the afternoon into the evening and become more isolated over the north and east, heading into the overnight hours into Halloween.  Further north, the hit-or-miss showers are the general rule. Southwestern areas and the mountains have the best chance for some rain of benefit to dampen the tree debris and take the edge off the wildfire threat. Given the dynamics involved here, I see more of a case to go with the “under” to use a betting analogy than the “over.” The western mountains may get lucky and pick up a ½” of rain due to orographic lifting, but less than ¼” is the rule for much of the state by the time this is over. Temperatures and outlook through the weekendRecord highs are likely for Halloween across the state. Showers appear likely for Friday with northern areas having the better chance. The next chance for rain comes in the middle part of next week, with a more of an unsettled pattern taking shape for the second full weekend in November.   Your financial support is greatly appreciated Always have MULTIPLE ways to receive weather alerts. Stay aware, stay on alert, and stay safe. - Mike PRINT MEDIA: Feel free to quote and cite my work here for your stories. Please give me the professional courtesy of knowing that you are referencing my material so I can read your final product and acknowledge it on my media and link it on the PTW IN MEDIA page here on the website. Feel free to send me a message via the Facebook page or Twitter (X) to get my phone number if necessary. Thank you! NOTE: The forecast information depicted on this platform is for general information purposes only for the public and is not designed or intended for commercial use. For those seeking pinpoint weather information for business operations, you should use a private sector source. For information about where to find commercial forecasters to assist your business, please message me and I will be happy to help you. |
Mike Haggett
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