Tuesday, October 7, 2025

10/7/2025

One more day of heat with an elevated fire threat

The National Weather Service offices in Caribou and Gray have issued a Special Weather Statement regarding wildfire concerns due to the late-season warmth, a southwesterly breeze, low relative humidity, and ongoing drought conditions.

The Maine Forest Service posts an update of the daily fire class by around 9 AM.

Record high temperatures were achieved by the stations where long-term data has been kept on Monday. Caribou and Houlton will likely set records on Tuesday, with Millinocket and Augusta possible to reach new daily highs.

Clouds increase in the afternoon and evening ahead of an approaching frontal boundary coming in from the west.

A quick-moving boundary brings rain overnight
into Wednesday

Tuesday 4 PM to Wednesday 8 PM - Shower chances increase Tuesday evening for the mountains and north, shifting to the southeast by Wednesday morning. This 1-hour rainfall idea from the HRRR suggests that rainfall could be moderate at times in a potluck fashion. It is likely to be a damp morning commute with locally low visibility due to rain and possibly some fog mixed in. Showers taper off from west to east in the afternoon, with precipitation exiting the Way DownEast before midnight Thursday.

Expect breezy conditions from the southwest ahead of the front, which will shift to the northwest behind it, continuing into the overnight hours and into Thursday.

There are no changes in my thinking for rainfall amounts from what I posted here Monday morning. The Allagash region has a fair chance to pick up 1"+ of rainfall, along with the mountains. Certain guidance indicates that parts of York County and the DownEast shorelines may pick up that much as well. Any rain at this point helps mitigate the wildfire threat, but it could dry out quickly with breezy, dry, and cooler air expected on Thursday.

Growing season is likely toast Friday morning for most

High pressure moves into the region on Thursday, and the wind drops on Thursday night. Clear skies reveal the bright moon, and radiational cooling kicks into gear. Forecast low temperatures are trending cooler, along with dew points predicted in the 20s away from the shorelines.

Patchy frost is possible Saturday morning.

Whether it is fire or water damage, Crowe's is there for you!

Outlook and temperatures through Monday

The frontal boundary that passes through the region on Wednesday is expected to stall offshore. A wet Nor'easter is likely to form along it, which will impact the Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic region over the weekend. The system is trapped within an upper-level ridge and cut off by high pressure to the north. The storm may not extend further north than 35° latitude, which is well southwest of the benchmark "B" point. A quick survey of over 150 ensemble ideas indicates that fewer than a handful give southern areas a chance for rain from this system.

Looking further out, the pattern appears unsettled next week as a series of clippers passes through. At this point, there is no sign of the super soaker the region desperately needs.

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- Mike

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