 PRECIPITABLE WATER FORECAST LOOP presented here. This is NOT RAINFALL amounts. This is the model's suggested amount of moisture in the air column. There are several moving parts here, making forecasting rainfall amounts a challenge. Upper-low diving in from the west as the upper ridge moves east. The forcing of the upper low causes the moisture surge to move northeast. A trailing upper low breaks from an approaching front across central Canada. The race is on for that feature to arrive and cut off the moisture from the southwest. Then, Helene's influence in this and an upper ridge near Bermuda. The weather is complicated! The bottom line here is that if the trailing upper low slows down, more moisture is expected to reach Maine and thus produce more rainfall. Guidance is hinting at that idea, but it is also picking up on convective feedback from the storms over the south and Helene, which brings the potential for less rainfall than what they are being predicted by them at this point, which is roughly 1” across much of the state. My thinking from Monday has altered slightly regarding projected rainfall amounts. The mountains have a good chance of picking up 1” +. To the south, east, and north, ½-¾” appears reasonable, with locally higher amounts of 1”. While the atmosphere will be juicy, it won't be "tropical" juicy since dew points seem to be primarily in the 50s for much of the state, with southern areas flirting with 60°. This makes a difference in outcome. If this were July and dew points were well in the 60s, the talk of flash flooding would come into the discussion, and that isn’t the case here. The region is so dry at this point that it will absorb most of this quickly. Showers overspread the area Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Rain showers (risk of thunder south?) through Thursday, ending for most areas by Friday morning, with the mountains seeing a chance for a shower through Friday afternoon. The weekend looks dry, with a warmup on the way. The next chance for rain after this comes roughly mid-next week. Major flooding and wind will occur in the south with Helene. A bad situation is developing there, and it will get ugly for some areas and everything associated with it. Just brutal.  Winter is coming, and I could use your support for 2025 Always have MULTIPLE ways to receive weather alerts. Stay aware, stay on alert, and stay safe. - Mike PRINT MEDIA: Feel free to quote and cite my work here for your stories. Please give me the professional courtesy of knowing that you are referencing my material so I can read your final product and acknowledge it on my media and link it on the PTW IN MEDIA page here on the website. Feel free to send me a message via the Facebook page or Twitter (X) to get my phone number if necessary. Thank you! NOTE: The forecast information depicted on this platform is for general information purposes only for the public and is not designed or intended for commercial use. For those seeking pinpoint weather information for business operations, you should use a private sector source. For information about where to find commercial forecasters to assist your business, please message me and I will be happy to help you. |
Mike Haggett
|
