 WEDNESDAY… A tricky day to forecast shower & storm chances with the smoke from the Canadian wildfires. The upper low, which has kept the region comfortable temperature-wise, backs in from the Maritimes and could produce showers with the risk of a storm across the state. How much activity comes out of it is “up in smoke,” as that dictates how much lift occurs for precipitation to form. In areas that deal with more smoke, lesser of a chance. Less smoke, a better chance. If storms happen to develop, there is a gusty wind, hail, loud thunder, and lightning potential. Depending on how the afternoon evolves, I can’t rule out the risk of a severe storm. Air quality levels predicted by the Maine DEP are moderate statewide, and there is the potential for the smell of smoke, especially in areas where showers form as the downdraft brings it to the surface. WEDNESDAY NIGHT… Northern and eastern areas have the best chance for showers into the overnight. Any isolated showers over the west and south appear to diminish around midnight. Low temperatures fall back into the 50s inland to around 60° at the coast. THURSDAY… The ideas floating around at this point indicate a better chance for showers and storms. As the upper-level low/backdoor cold front digs further south, that may keep most of the smoke to the west, which would increase precipitation potential. Southern and western areas may see a better chance for activity. Highs for the day are on the cool side, with 70s for most locations. FRIDAY… The mountains and north may see a shower and/or a storm, while the rest of the region appears to stay dry. High temperatures are slightly warmer, with 70s to low 80s.  THE WEEKEND … A surface low is expected to develop around the Great Lakes on Saturday and slide east, bringing a risk of showers over western and potentially southern areas in the afternoon. The surface low passes through the region on Sunday, bringing the risk of showers again. There may be a predecessor rain event development with Ernesto that may increase rain chances. On that point…  ERNESTO… Circling back to my post on Monday indicating the potential for a westward shift in track for the storm, and here we are. For my Nova Scotia followers, now is the time to prepare for this one. Whether or not the storm makes landfall around Halifax or skirts east toward Cape Breton, effects will be felt there with wind, heavy rainfall, and high surf. For Maine, the shorelines are the key area of concern for now. Starting Saturday, a long wave swell will arrive from the storm, lap the coast, and strong rip currents will develop along the beaches. What happens with the upper-low / trough moving east and its proximity will dictate if the region gets in on the rainfall, some wind, and how high the surf may rise along the shorelines. Tides will be astronomically high with the full moon this weekend. Timing and track of the storm will be factors in determining impacts beyond the surf. For the latest on Ernesto, please follow the National Hurricane Center. Stay tuned!  Always have MULTIPLE ways to receive weather alerts. Stay aware, stay on alert, and stay safe. - Mike PRINT MEDIA: Feel free to quote and cite my work here for your stories. Please give me the professional courtesy of knowing that you are referencing my material so I can read your final product and acknowledge it on my media and link it on the PTW IN MEDIA page here on the website. Feel free to send me a message via the Facebook page or Twitter (X) to get my phone number if necessary. Thank you! NOTE: The forecast information depicted on this platform is for general information purposes only for the public and is not designed or intended for commercial use. For those seeking pinpoint weather information for business operations, you should use a private sector source. For information about where to find commercial forecasters to assist your business, please message me and I will be happy to help you. |
Mike Haggett
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