The path is opening for Debby to advance north A look at the steering level of the atmosphere with water vapor, along with the National Hurricane Center track as of 2 AM ET Wednesday morning. The players are moving into position allow Debby to move out of the southeast and head for Greenland to retire by early next week.  Wednesday 12z (8 AM) to Monday 00z (Sunday 8 PM) - To put my anointed chart into motion, it indicates the ridging over the southwest weaking as a result of an upper low barreling in from Manitoba. This unlocks the trap door of the storm. The strong ridge over the Atlantic gets irritated by a strong upper low over Greenland. The combination of the Manitoba low entering the Great Lakes region and the Atlantic ridge flexing itself allow a frontal boundary to scoop Debby's remnants and move it north, entering southwestern Maine by Thursday evening. Before Debby arrives, pleasant conditions Showers and clouds around early Wednesday morning over the coastal plain move out. Surface high pressure associated with the trough moving in brings seasonably cool temperatures with comfortable humidity levels and a light breeze. Northern areas see some smoky haze once again associated with the wildfires in Canada. The clear sky means an early fall-like feel Wednesday night as temperatures could fall into the low to mid-40s in the protected valleys in the north and mountains as the wind settles, with low to mid-50s for the coast. There could be some areas of fog that pop up around lakes and rivers due to warm water temperatures heading into Thursday morning.  What to keep in mind with Debby's passing Compared to Tuesday's rainfall idea to early morning Wednesday shows a reduction of nearly 50% in rainfall as the track has shifted west. Looking at ensemble ideas, there is the case where rainfall totals could be reduced more, which indicates a track further to the west may be in the offing. With the storm being absorbed into a frontal boundary with a new low forming, this is turning into more of a decent rain event more than anything. With the tropical nature of it and a warm front moving up the coast which will raise humidity levels, it does not eliminate the potential for areas of heavier rainfall with the more westward track.  The ground over much of the state is rather damp given the recent rainfall. Any heavy showers and/or thunderstorms that develop are likely to dump as dew point temperatures rise into the upper 60s to low 70s. Hourly rainfall rates from the heavier rainfall will determine how impactful the flash flood potential may be. The region that I am most concerned with flash flood potential is the higher elevations of the western mountains as that is area likely to receive the most rainfall. Fine tuning on the forecast is to come. Stay tuned! While PTW is a free service, the cost of time and data is not.  Always have MULTIPLE ways to receive weather alerts. Stay aware, stay on alert, and stay safe. - Mike PRINT MEDIA: Feel free to quote and cite my work here for your stories. Please give me the professional courtesy of knowing that you are referencing my material so I can read your final product and acknowledge it on my media and link it on the PTW IN MEDIA page here on the website. Feel free to send me a message via the Facebook page or Twitter (X) to get my phone number if necessary. Thank you! NOTE: The forecast information depicted on this platform is for general information purposes only for the public and is not designed or intended for commercial use. For those seeking pinpoint weather information for business operations, you should use a private sector source. For information about where to find commercial forecasters to assist your business, please message me and I will be happy to help you. |
Mike Haggett
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