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While not as “Grinchy” as the storm from a year ago, the first significant storm of the winter season will be a force to deal with heavy amounts of rain and snowmelt that will cause flooding and strong wind that will likely lead to power outages in the hundreds of thousands in the dark by Thursday morning. The shorelines escape with minor issues. While the seas will build in the 13-19 foot range, the peak heights come in during low tide in the 1 AM hour on Thursday. I suspect splash-over in low-lying areas will come with the Thursday PM tide, so be on the lookout for that for those who live there.  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ICE— Cold air damming is doing its thing over the interior, which comes as no surprise to those who have been paying attention to my updates. Areas of ice accretion continue over the interior. The cold at the surface will lose the battle by the afternoon as the southerly wind begins to crank, but it will be a PITA until that point and cause slick conditions and iced-up vehicles. For those experiencing icing, I would love reports on amounts and images, if you have any.  FLOOD WATCH – Ideas on rainfall continue to range in the 1-3” range, with the jackpot region for the mountains that could locally reach 4”. While the snowpack will absorb a fair portion of the liquid, the melting will be substantial and result in flooding. There will likely be flash flooding in the mountains as the rain ramps up ahead of the cold front Wednesday evening, which could wash out trails and a few roads. With the frozen ground, the rain and the snowmelt will look for places to escape, including brooks, streams, rivers, urban areas, and basements. Flooding of the larger rivers ranges from minor to moderate at this point. Still, given the dynamics here with 2-4” of water frozen in the snowpack, time will tell how that will impact areas downstream and predicted adequately until after the storm has passed. In the short term, expect rivers to rise closer to the coast as snowpack from the foothills to the south is wiped out and drains. Where the flooding disaster, like with the 2023 storm, is avoided in the narrow window of high dew points, which will help reduce the snowmelt bleed and prevent history from repeating itself there. OVERNIGHT TRAVELERS BE AWARE OF FLOODED ROADWAYS... TURN AROUND, DON’T DROWN.  HIGH WIND GUSTS OVERNIGHT – Given the system's timing, the strongest gusts pass through overnight as the cold front approaches and the low-level jet cranks up ahead of it. The threat of damaging wind is both vertical and horizontal. Embedded thunderstorms and heavy to torrential rainfall will drag strong gusts to the surface. The idea is that if you still have power by Thursday morning, chances are good that you will keep it. Given our sensitive power grid, there will be many in the dark in the more populous regions, and unfortunately, some folks could be without power for potentially a week or longer in a single-line situation in rural areas. Folks on wells without generators should fill the bathtubs and have gallons of water ready for use. Also, note that some very cold nights are forecast through the weekend, so be prepared to bleed your pipes to prevent them from freezing. Have batteries for flashlights and cell phones. I hope and pray that we can escape this storm without any fatalities. Make it routine to check the PTW Weather Wall for updates Appreciation for financial help to keep the coffee pot going, help me pay the bills, and train future forecasters Always have MULTIPLE ways to receive weather alerts. Stay aware, stay on alert, and stay safe. - Mike PRINT MEDIA: Feel free to quote and cite my work here for your stories. Please give me the professional courtesy of knowing that you are referencing my material so I can read your final product and acknowledge it on my media and link it on the PTW IN MEDIA page here on the website. Feel free to send me a message via the Facebook page or Twitter (X) to get my phone number if necessary. Thank you! NOTE: The forecast information depicted on this platform is for general information purposes only for the public and is not designed or intended for commercial use. For those seeking pinpoint weather information for business operations, you should use a private sector source. For information about where to find commercial forecasters to assist your business, please message me and I will be happy to help you. |
Mike Haggett
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