A gnarly inside runner on the way Those traveling Wednesday overnight into Thursday morning should consider slick travel conditions and plan accordingly. The Winter Storm Watch has been converted to a Winter Storm Warning for the Great North Woods and NW Aroostook. Winter Weather Advisories have been posted for the western mountains and foothills, along with eastern Aroostook zones. It would be wise to top off the gas tank to help with traction and fill the windshield wash reservoir if you have not done so recently. For areas south of the foothills, this is shaping up to be another sloppy mess.  Wednesday 4 PM (21z) to Friday 1 AM (06z) – A surface low tracking across Ontario tracks to the east and enters the region Wednesday night. A sharp trough injects a shot of energy into it and spins up a stronger storm as the system heads to the Gulf of St. Lawrence Thursday afternoon into early Friday. Disturbances along for the ride pop weak areas of low pressure which assist in dragging warm air and moisture off the ocean. In typical inside runner fashion, the wind out of the south/southeast introduces a coastal front that works inland. The question at this point is how far inland it will go, and plays a key role in how much snow accumulates before the change to rain.  Wednesday 4 PM (21z) to Friday 1 AM (06z)--A look at 1-hour liquid equivalent modeled precipitation amounts shows light precipitation breaking out over the west and south Wednesday evening. With the arrival of the low-level jet stream from the south, precipitation velocity increases to moderate to heavy heading into Thursday morning. Over the interior, where the cold holds, this brings the risk of snowfall rates in the 1-2”/hour range at times that would cause low visibility and slick driving conditions. As the low-level jet passes to the east, that will shut down heavier precipitation, leaving light snow/rain showers in its wake. Southern and central areas dry out by midday Thursday, eastern areas by early afternoon, and the north by late afternoon. Expect the snow shower machine to continue in the mountains through the day and into Thursday night.  With the inside runner doing inside runner things, forecast confidence for snowfall is better for the mountains and north, where the cold holds than the south and east. The timing of the changeover from snow to rain with the arrival of the coastal front will be the key to how much piles up, and where bust potential looms large. Temperatures are expected to warm up to freezing or slightly above during the day on Thursday to help loosen up and melt snow that was left behind. Be forewarned that any slop left behind freezes up as cold air pours in Thursday night into Friday as the storm intensifies on its way out.  Another healthy dose of rain is on the way for the coast, with DownEast areas in good position to pick up around an inch. Most areas of the state will pick up around ¾”, whether frozen or liquid. We’ll take it. Strong backside wind to bring chill |
Mike Haggett
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