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Today's update is presented by Crowe’s Restoration of Arundel. For emergency fire & water damage (pipe bursts), mold, or biohazard issues in western and southern Maine, call them at 207-467-3152. Bulletins posted for Thursday As I got out of bed at 1:30 AM to prepare this update and for the long day ahead, I took a few minutes in silence in the home office. The words that came to me were “patience” and “perseverance.” Looking over guidance, that is indeed the case. We’re in mid-February. There is plenty of winter still to come. I know my followers. Some are excited about the snow, and others are tired of the cold and ready for warmer times. For the snow lovers, patience has been rewarded. For those looking for 72° and sunny, perseverance is in order. It’s going to be a bit of a bumpy ride starting Thursday through early next week, and then, potentially, we get a break for a few days. The calm before the next one A few clouds to the north, a few more to the south, and the sun in between. For those hitting the slopes today, it’s a perfect day to make runs. It will be a great day to get out. While it will be seasonably cool, there will be little wind. A messy Thursday The morning commute is likely to be slick across much of the region, as snow is either accumulating or just starting to fall. Travel could get trickier as the morning evolves into the afternoon as the atmosphere potentially becomes constipated and can’t figure out if it wants to snow, sleet, or drop freezing rain, and perhaps all at the same time. Conditions improve later in the day over the south, west, and east. The north will be dealing with difficult travel into Friday.  Wednesday 21:00 (9 PM) to Friday 00:00 (Midnight) – I don’t usually use future radar in my discussions because the margin of error in what is reaching the ground is high early on and in the later hours as the storm departs. There is also a margin of error with precipitation type, and I will forewarn you that guidance continues to be all over the place with differing ideas on how much junk falls, what type (ice pellets or freezing rain), and the timing of it. Confidence is high for snow in the north and rain along the shorelines. In the middle of that whoopie pie remains to be seen, and at this point, it may be as simple as what you see is what you get. This is another fast moving storm, with precipitation tapering off from southwest to northeast through the afternoon into the overnight.  I posted earlier this week about the warm front moving in for Thursday that could potentially fall apart, and that idea has not left me. Guidance continues to lighten the amount of liquid equivalent as it is picking up on a dry slot working in as the parent low heads for the Gulf of St. Lawrence. Bust potential flags are flying south and east of the mountains, and the reasons are twofold: the timing of the changeover to junk and the potential of the dry slot. For the north, it boils down to mesoscale banding. Models are flagging the potential for snowfall rates upwards of 2”/hour. Where the snow nukes, it piles up. Where it doesn’t, it won’t. Outlook into the weekend and the next one The storm that passes through the region Thursday intensifies as it heads east and will bring windy conditions Thursday night into Friday. Fresh snow over the north will blow around and could cause drifting and whiteout conditions as the northwest wind gusts 35-45 mph. Gusts are possible in the 25-35 mph range south and east of the mountains, not protected by the taller hills. Snow showers are possible for the mountains on Friday as the air column clears out. The wind settles down for Saturday as high-pressure slides through the region. The storm track for Sunday is similar to Thursday’s, but the general idea on the trough is sharper, allowing for rapid development of the forming coastal low. Ensemble ideas remain considerably colder than the operational models. This should be a good snow event for the mountains and north. Snow is likely to start over the south and east, with the potential for another round of junky mix and shoreline rainfall to end. Expect windy conditions as the storm departs through Tuesday. Stay tuned...  The Wall is always there with the latest 24/7... PTW continues only with your support! Always have MULTIPLE ways to receive weather alerts. Stay aware, stay on alert, and stay safe. - Mike PRINT MEDIA: Feel free to quote and cite my work here for your stories. Please give me the professional courtesy of knowing that you are referencing my material so I can read your final product and acknowledge it on my media and link it on the PTW IN MEDIA page here on the website. Feel free to send me a message via the Facebook page or Twitter (X) to get my phone number if necessary. Thank you! NOTE: The forecast information depicted on this platform is for general information purposes only for the public and is not designed or intended for commercial use. For those seeking pinpoint weather information for business operations, you should use a private sector source. For information about where to find commercial forecasters to assist your business, please message me and I will be happy to help you. |
Mike Haggett
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