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The forecast for the storm impacting the region remains on track. Snow over the interior, rain for the coastal plain, and perhaps a mix in between. Wind speeds are expected to increase during the day with gusts in the 30-40 mph region for the shoreline areas with the onshore flow. Very minor coastal flooding and seawall splash-over are possible in the 10 AM to 2 PM window. Precipitation tapers off from southwest to northeast later in the day and into the evening. With the wind shift to the northwest, cold air streams into the region and sets up a potential black ice concern in spots overnight into Thursday. Expect a cold and windy Thursday with gusts in the 35-45 mph range, which may cause isolated power outages. Snow showers throughout the day continue for the western mountains and the Quebec border region. Expect another breezy day for Friday before the wind settles heading into Saturday. The PTW Weather Wall has the latest information from the National Weather Service. A cold, dry start to the year Seeing this stretch of cold air on the way sent me on a research mission to figure out when the region experienced something similar as it has been a while. Thanks to the resources of the National Weather Service and NOAA’s Physical Sciences Laboratory, with a hat tip to NWS Gray lead forecaster Chris Legro for pointing me in the right direction, I did some digging. The image on the left shows the 500 MB anomaly for late January into early February 2010. The image on the right shows the European ensemble forecast through January 7, 2025. The atmospheric setup is very close. In comparison to other cold spells since the turn of the century, this is the best one with an extended cold. The result of the weather in late January/early February 2010 is similar to what the region can expect for the first half of this January, and it may last longer.  Snowfall amounts during the 2010 period were trace amounts here and there for Portland and Bangor, with a few fluffy inch or two recordings for Caribou. The trough over the east dug deep, too deep for storms to work their way into the area, and that is how this stretch of weather appears to be shaping up.  Wednesday 7 PM (00z Thursday) to Friday January 10th 7 PM (00z Saturday the 11th)--While the pattern appears mainly dry into the middle part of the month, it will be a bit chaotic with all of the upper-level energy around. The important feature to watch on this loop is the blue line, which is the 540 dam that may be referred to as the “rain/snow line.” The trough digs so that moisture from the south has a hard getting in. Upper-level waves will draw moisture from the St. Lawrence River, bringing snow showers to the Quebec border region and flakes to the western mountains. Meanwhile, warm air from the south tries to move northward, and disturbances along the periphery ignite strong storms but stay to the south and east of the region. Northern areas may get some snow shower activity the first of next week as a strong storm backs into Newfoundland and pinwheels a backdoor wave through, but any snowfall in meaningful measure is unlikely to come. This is a great pattern for snow storms over the Ohio River Valley and the MidAtlantic, but for us here, it’s charity flakes, a breeze at times, and a mix of sun and clouds for the most part.  The one thing about the upper-level chaos is that the atmosphere will be in continuous motion. There won’t be a 1040 mb or stronger high that will camp out, which would bring double-digit below-zero starts over the north as it did back in 2010. It will be breezy at times, which may send wind chill values down to the freezer-burn level, especially for the mountains. The lakes, ponds, and rivers should freeze up well during this stretch, bringing safety for the ice fisherman and the skaters. With little snow in the forecast, this should build strong and deep ice, the kind that bangs, cracks, and snaps, which should hold up well when warmer weather returns. Ice out could be late this year, and time will tell if ice jams in the rivers will be problematic for spring flooding. While natural snow will be hard to come by, the ski hills will make snow to beat the band with the advantage of the cold. The big loss is for snowmobilers, and those businesses are dependent on them as the ground will be bare or there will be little base to support the riders.  Check the PTW Weather Wall 24/7 for the latest... PTW continues because of people like YOU! Always have MULTIPLE ways to receive weather alerts. Stay aware, stay on alert, and stay safe. - Mike PRINT MEDIA: Feel free to quote and cite my work here for your stories. Please give me the professional courtesy of knowing that you are referencing my material so I can read your final product and acknowledge it on my media and link it on the PTW IN MEDIA page here on the website. Feel free to send me a message via the Facebook page or Twitter (X) to get my phone number if necessary. Thank you! NOTE: The forecast information depicted on this platform is for general information purposes only for the public and is not designed or intended for commercial use. For those seeking pinpoint weather information for business operations, you should use a private sector source. For information about where to find commercial forecasters to assist your business, please message me and I will be happy to help you. |
Mike Haggett
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