 As the remnants of Beryl head into the Great Lakes, clouds and humidity will be on the increase over the region. A tropical warm front moves into the region Wednesday afternoon and is expected to bring isolated strong to severe storms heading towards the evening. The ocean shorelines will be the cooler location once again with a south/southwest onshore breeze developing. Expect fog to roll in later in the day and into the overnight, which could be locally dense, and could bring patchy drizzle. Conditional severe threat once again Areas to the west have the better chance of seeing sun, and that is where the greater risk for nasty storms reside. For southwest Maine, it's a wait-and-see scenario, with cloud cover to determine storm potential.  With tropical systems, there comes a lot of spin in the atmosphere, which raises the threat for damaging wind and the risk of tornadoes. On most days, no matter what season we are in, warm fronts and modeling can never be trusted. With a tropical warm front moving in, the element of surprise with either over or underperformance is elevated, and cloud cover has a lot to do with it. If the sun comes out... look out. Timing, flooding, and rain amounts Wednesday 2 PM to Thursday 6 AM - The general idea is that the main window for strong to severe storm potential occurs in the afternoon. The back building and training of storms or tropical rainfall is a distinct possibility. The heavy rain moves in over interior areas into the overnight and begins to taper off to scattered showers into Thursday.  Much of the region is at risk for scattered areas of flash flooding, which could cause hydroplaning on the highways, urban street flooding, and the rapid rise of brooks, streams, and small rivers. Roads and trails could experience washouts. Small rivers like the Swift and Carrabassett should be monitored. I don't expect any issues with the main stem rivers as the dry times of late have receded levels to the point where they can manage what is coming.  With respect to the WPC outlook, it may be a bit conservative given the tropical nature of the rainfall. I can see where 2-4" is a good possibility for the western mountains over the central highlands to Katahdin. Areas to the north and south are in the 1-2" range, Southern areas that may appear to escape with minimal rainfall are subject to a dumper or trainer which could drive local amounts much higher. Extended outlook into the weekendIsolated to scattered showers with chance for storms are expected through Friday. A ridge moves in from the west which may bring a chance for showers for the west and south on Saturday. Sunday appears to be the pick of the weekend. It may be late next week before the region sees dew points dip below the 60° level for any period of time.  Always have MULTIPLE ways to receive weather alerts. Stay aware, stay on alert, and stay safe. - Mike PRINT MEDIA: Feel free to quote and cite my work here for your stories. Please give me the professional courtesy of knowing that you are referencing my material so I can read your final product and acknowledge it on my media and link it on the PTW IN MEDIA page here on the website. Feel free to send me a message via the Facebook page or Twitter (X) to get my phone number if necessary. Thank you! NOTE: The forecast information depicted on this platform is for general information purposes only for the public and is not designed or intended for commercial use. For those seeking pinpoint weather information for business operations, you should use a private sector source. For information about where to find commercial forecasters to assist your business, please message me and I will be happy to help you. |
Mike Haggett
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