The outlook from above A cold front is expected to bring some relief from the heat on Thursday, but high humidity will still be present ahead of the front. Showers and thunderstorms are possible, and depending on the specific timing, some storms could be strong to severe. While rain coverage will be scattered, any storms that do develop may produce heavy downpours. The humidity is expected to decrease on Friday, accompanied by breezy conditions, resulting in a cooler and drier day. High pressure will return on Saturday, followed by another front approaching from the north on Sunday. Severe storms possible on Thursday Interior southwest, the mountains and northern parts of the state is under a marginal risk for severe weather, according to Storm Prediction Center. While this represents a lower-end risk overall, some model guidance suggests the potential for a more organized and damaging wind event. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out, particularly in areas where surface winds back slightly ahead of any boundaries or outflow. One local factor to watch out for is cloud cover from early-day convection from the west. Anvil debris from upstream storms tends to drift overhead from west to east, which can suppress instability and limit storm development later on. However, if skies manage to clear out in the afternoon and heating resumes, the atmosphere could destabilize enough to support stronger, possibly severe storms.  The Weather Prediction Center maintains its idea of excessive rainfall potential over northern and western areas of the state. Isolated areas of flash flooding may occur, particularly those with poor drainage or recent heavy rain, could experience rapid runoff from slow-moving or repeated thunderstorms. The atmosphere will carry enough moisture to support downpours, especially where storms can train or redevelop over the same locations. Further south, heavy rainfall remains possible, but the flash flood risk appears to be lower at this time.  Thursday 8 AM to Friday 2 AM - Showers and the potential for thunderstorms will enter western areas in the morning hours and track northeast throughout the day on Thursday. Winds will shift from the southwest to the northwest in the afternoon hours, moving the potential for showers and storms to the coast. Showers will become more scattered as nighttime approaches and end over northern areas overnight. Humidity drops on Friday with a northwest breeze Thursday 11 PM to Friday 9 AM - Dew points are expected to decrease significantly starting around midnight on Friday. This will lead to noticeably more comfortable conditions, with dew points only reaching the mid-to-high 50s in the south and the high 40s to low 50s in the northern portion of the state. Compared to Thursday, dew points are expected to decrease by 15 to 20 degrees throughout the region. The drier air will also reduce the risk of fog, making for a pleasant start to the weekend.  Wind will shift from southwest to northeast on Friday, bringing drier air along with increasing wind speeds. Gusts of 20 to 30 mph are possible, leading to choppy conditions on lakes, especially along shorelines and in the northern lakes region, where the northwest flow will have more room to build waves. Boaters and those planning water activities should be prepared for breezy conditions and increased wave action throughout the day. A comfortable SaturdayHigh pressure remains over the region on Saturday, keeping things mostly dry before a cold front arrives from the west Saturday night. High temperatures will range from the mid- to high 70s in the south and from the low to mid-70s in the northern portion of the state. With dew points remaining below 60, the air will feel comfortable and relatively dry, making for a pleasant summer day. Skies will be mostly sunny before the cold front approaches, bringing increased cloud cover at night. Chance of showers and storms for Sunday Saturday 8 PM (00z Sunday) to Monday 8 AM (12z) - Beginning on Saturday night, there is a chance for showers and potentially an isolated storm as a cold front moves through the state. During the day on Sunday, the front is expected to move across the region, likely bringing a round of showers and thunderstorms as it passes through. However, uncertainty remains regarding the exact timing and placement of both the front and its associated low-pressure system. Despite this, conditions are expected to gradually improve across the area on Monday as high pressure returns and appears to remain in the region through midweek. Temperature outlook through Tuesday Today's update prepared by Penn State graduate |
Mike Haggett
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