Back to damper times We’ve seen worse setups, but the threats for pop up slow-moving dumpers that may train and backfill, which cause the flash flooding concern. The steep temperature lapse rates with the freezing level around 10-12K feet bring the hailers. The damaging wind threat appears isolated but may occur in areas of downpours. The question of whether or not the region gets a severe thunderstorm watch is entirely at the discretion of the Storm Prediction Center, which will be determined as the day unfolds. Regardless, the threat for an isolated severe storm or two is there.  Wednesday 10 AM to Thursday 6 AM - The HRRR 06z (2 AM) idea shows the rapid development of storms on Wednesday afternoon. The main concern is for training and backfilling, where the risk of localized flash flooding occurs. Urban street flooding is possible. Note here that the model suggests repeat storm development in the same areas, adding to the localized flash flooding threat. On most days, the storm threat ends by sunset, but in this case, there is enough instability aloft that non-severe rumbles featuring heavy rain continue overnight.  Thursday 6 AM to Friday 2 AM - Pending on how the cut off upper-low to the east behaves will dictate what happens on Thursday. The HRRR suggests it may wobble back to the west a bit, which in theory keeps the rain and storm threat to the south and east. Time will tell if that happens. Folks in eastern areas should stay mindful that showers and storms may shift into their area pending on what happens with the traffic jam over the Atlantic.  IMPORTANT to note that where heavy rain falls on Wednesday, there is a renewed threat for the same areas on Thursday, more notably for the west and south. Consequently, the flash flooding threat continues. Folks camping out in the hills near brooks and streams should be mindful of their surroundings for runoff and rapid rise of water levels. The model idea here does a good job of painting the picture of the training and backfilling of showers and storms, given the streaky nature of rainfall amounts. Some areas could pick up 1 to 3” of rainfall by early Friday, while others may escape with a fraction of that. It’s a potluck situation. Please understand that this is simply one model idea and that changes in the dynamics in play will lead to the end result. Unsettled pattern through early next week Friday 2 AM to Tuesday 8 PM - The upper low spins into the region from the northwest and hangs around like an annoying housefly through Monday, at least. While I don’t see washouts, I do see clouds with the sun poking through that will fire up convective showers with rumbles possible. Folks with outdoor plans should stay mindful of pop-up showers that may surprise, especially in the afternoons. Thank you for making my early mornings worth it! Always have MULTIPLE ways to receive weather alerts. Stay updated, stay on alert, and stay safe. - Mike PRINT MEDIA: Feel free to quote and cite my work here for your stories. Please give me the professional courtesy of knowing that you are referencing my material so I can read your final product and acknowledge it on my media and link it on the PTW IN MEDIA page here on the website. Feel free to send me a message via the Facebook page or Twitter (X) to get my phone number if necessary. Thank you! NOTE: The forecast information depicted on this platform is for general information purposes only for the public and is not designed or intended for commercial use. For those seeking pinpoint weather information for business operations, you should use a private sector source. For information about where to find commercial forecasters to assist your business, please message me and I will be happy to help you. |
Mike Haggett
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