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Today's update is presented by Crowe’s Restoration of Arundel. For emergency fire & water damage (pipe bursts, flooding), mold, or biohazard issues in western and southern Maine, call them at 207-467-3152. PTW is also follower funded by readers like you. Please consider a donation for the kind of weather coverage you won't find elsewhere. It is only because of followers and business partners that this website continues. Thank you for making my early mornings and long days worth it!  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE NORTH; WIND ADVISORY FOR MIDCOAST & DOWNEAST; ICE JAM FLOOD THREAT AND AREAS OF DENSE FOG THURSDAY; BLACK ICE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING; WINDY & COLD FRIDAY The forecast that I posted on Tuesday remains on track. The warm front that passed through southern areas last night has become quasi-stationary over the north as of Wednesday morning and will linger there through the day. As a result, NWS Caribou has a Winter Weather Advisory posted until 10 PM for the crown of The County where light snow, light ice, and a bit of sleet is possible, along with the risk of black ice south of the wobbling front that may melt snow and refreeze on the roads due to the cold ground temperature.  The surface map from the Ocean Prediction Center shows the setup for a classic inside runner. Our old pal, the Bermuda High, which brings us heat and steam in summer, has parked itself to pump moisture in from the south. If this were summer, the discussion would be about severe thunderstorms.  FLOODING: At this point, the unknown is the threat of ice jam flooding for the brooks, streams, and rivers south and east of the mountains due to melting snow from rainfall and fog. As I mentioned in Tuesday’s update, the location of flooding areas could be odd with this storm with the frozen ground. As of early Wednesday morning, the Northeast River Forecast Center indicates river rises but no areas of flood concern. I will continue to watch that, given the dynamics. WIND: While it will get windy, the frozen ground is one factor that helps knock down the speed. This creates an inversion that blocks off the strong wind aloft from reaching the surface. The low-level jet delivers heavier rain, which poses a better chance for gusts to reach the surface, and the timing of the Wind Advisory runs in conjunction with that. Given the strength of the gusts, there runs the risk of isolated power outages. As we head into Friday, a secondary low develops offshore and rapidly intensifies. The backside northwest wind could blow hard in the mountains, with a stiff breeze in areas not protected by the hills. FOG: As dew points rise above freezing, fog could become locally dense. In the aftermath of Thursday's heavy rainfall, the region sits in the warm sector with diminishing wind, which could create areas of widespread dense fog before the cold front passes through Thursday night. BLACK ICE CONCERNS: This may be a concern given the deep cold at the surface over the mountains and north while the event is ongoing. The rain will wash the road salt away. This liquid will freeze up and could turn roads, driveways, sidewalks, and parking lots into skating rinks Thursday night into Friday morning statewide. Check out the Weather Wall with all your current |
Mike Haggett
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