Much needed rain is on the way The state can expect one more dry day with clouds on the increase and a bit of breeze. Wildfire conditions remain high over the south. Considering what has gone on around Southern New England over the past few weeks, Maine has been lucky to escape this dry period with pop-up fires of controllable size. Rain is coming to help take the edge off and perhaps provide a dent in the drought in some areas. With winter approaching soon, it will be essential to get as much liquid in the ground as possible before the ground freezes.  Thursday 7 AM (12z) to Sunday 7 PM (00z Monday)-- The upper low over the Northern Plains that heads into the region on Thursday becomes cut off and stalls over the area over the weekend. As it wobbles, waves of disturbances pass through the region, bringing rain to all areas Thursday into Friday and snow along the Quebec border region and the taller hills on Saturday. Anytime there is an upper low around, they have a mind of their own and will do whatever they please, no matter what model ideas think.  Thursday 7 AM (12z) to Sunday 7 PM (00z Monday)--The timing of the arrival of rain begins over southern areas Thursday morning as the upper low taps into moisture from the south. A surface low to the southwest rapidly intensifies, becomes vertically stacked, and thus weakens on Friday. As the upper low gets shoved to the east later in the day, a new surface low forms to the southeast, bringing more precipitation into the area Friday night into Saturday. The timing and development of the new low is where forecast confidence is low as of the time of this post on Wednesday morning.  I rarely use a single deterministic model idea for precipitation amounts, but due to the discrepancy in all of the ideas and blends I have seen, the European model thinking from the Tuesday overnight run is middle of the road in output. Keeping in mind the threat of dry slotting as the surface low to the west fizzles out, along with high pressure to the northeast, the main idea is for southern and western areas to cash in on the liquid through the first two days of the event.  Northern and eastern areas see their chance for beneficial rain heading into Saturday. With the upper low's cut-off nature, ensemble ideas bring a higher level of forecast uncertainty heading into the weekend. The point of the development of the new surface low and how quickly it organizes and intensifies will dictate how much precipitation falls on Saturday and also where it may fall in the frozen variety. All in all, the consensus indicates a general 1-2” of liquid equivalent is expected for the entire region, with the potential for 1-3”+ of snow for the higher terrain and the Allagash area by the time it is over. Again, we are dealing with a cut-off upper low, which could bring more or less rain and snow, depending on how it evolves. Stay tuned.   Always have MULTIPLE ways to receive weather alerts. Stay aware, stay on alert, and stay safe. - Mike PRINT MEDIA: Feel free to quote and cite my work here for your stories. Please give me the professional courtesy of knowing that you are referencing my material so I can read your final product and acknowledge it on my media and link it on the PTW IN MEDIA page here on the website. Feel free to send me a message via the Facebook page or Twitter (X) to get my phone number if necessary. Thank you! NOTE: The forecast information depicted on this platform is for general information purposes only for the public and is not designed or intended for commercial use. For those seeking pinpoint weather information for business operations, you should use a private sector source. For information about where to find commercial forecasters to assist your business, please message me and I will be happy to help you. |
Mike Haggett
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