The first decent elevation snow is on the way An area of low pressure passes through the Great Lakes and heads to Maine. The storm will intensify as it travels eastward. This pattern is similar to what the region experienced last fall and winter. Storms are either in development or weakening stages as they pass through the area. Achieving a mature synoptic event (Nor'Easter) that brings a substantial amount of precipitation has been a tall ask over the past 18 months. And it continues.  The wind picks up out the southwest as clouds increase over the state. It will be a bit cool for the south and mild to the north.  Wednesday, 1 PM (18z) to Thursday, 1 PM (18z) - I will be upfront that the RRFS Experimental model idea is a cooler solution and an outlier. Observing guidance over the past couple of days while taking into consideration the dynamics and timing of the intensifying storm, I can't dismiss this idea. Light to moderate snow for the mountains, a mix of sleet and light to moderate rainfall (locally heavy), and dynamic cooling that changes rain to snow on the backside of the system as it heads into the Canadian Maritimes. I've had the idea that the west, north, and east could see flakes as a parting gift, and maybe light accumulations on grass. Folks traveling over the interior overnight into early Thursday morning should be aware of the potential for slick spots.  Thursday Midnight (05z) to 7 PM (00z Friday) - A look at the low-level jet idea from the European model shows the amplification of the northwest wind on the backside of the storm as it heads east. Using recent wind as a reference point, it's not as severe as Tuesday, when over 25,000 lost power, but it still poses a risk of loss, with the coastal plain having a higher chance of outages. A wind advisory is possible. The wind picks up speed heading into daylight Thursday morning and gradually diminishes in the afternoon.  The ski hills will celebrate the early season snowfall. The taller peaks in the Whites and Katahdin may get a foot or more. The idea of 6-12" is possible for the peaks of Sunday River and Sugarloaf. The dynamic cooling potential involved could bring accumulating snow into the foothills. We may see a winter weather advisory posted.  The heart of the state has the best chance of receiving a fair amount of liquid equivalent from this. The storm is relatively compact in its early development stage, which may keep totals low for the north. Southern areas may experience dry air, which can reduce rainfall amounts. We'll take what we can get. Enjoy a wood fired sauna and the beach to yourself! The next one Friday 1 PM (18z) to Saturday 1 PM (18z) - A weak clipper is expected to enter the region Friday evening and bring the chance for light amounts of rain and snow to the region overnight into Saturday morning. The only minor concern with this is the shorelines with astronomically high tide. Whether minor flooding occurs depends on the wind direction on Saturday afternoon. Our next system enters the region on Sunday afternoon and continues into Monday, which appears to be an inside runner at this point. It is expected to start as snow for the interior, then transition to rain, according to the early preview, which is subject to adjustment. Stay tuned. The PTW Weather Wall updates 24/7 Your financial support keeps the lighthouse lit |
Mike Haggett
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