A bit of a mixed bag for the weekend
For those in the south and east, the weekend looks fair overall. Folks in the mountains and north may have to dodge some showers Sunday and Monday, but it certainly won't be a washout. Enjoy the break from the humidity... it will return for the second half of the weekend and into next week.
Warm trend continues into September
We'll be hearing about records broken for the meteorological summer season (June through August) in the coming days. It has been a very humid summer. For those longing for sweater weather, it will be awhile yet, outside of a few cooler mornings. September will continue on the warm side, and if the long term model ideas are right, it could be above average as we head into October.
Drought concerns linger on
The moderate drought continues for much of the coast and it won't be going away anytime soon. With the pattern back into a west to east zonal flow, any rain gathered from showers or thunderstorms will be a bonus. Folks relying on groundwater resources should keep a close eye on it. While this idea shows that it will be dry into late next week, it could go on for much of the month.
The tropics are heating up
I mentioned this on the Facebook page earlier in the week about areas to watch and that idea hasn't changed a whole lot. A strong wave off the African coast near the Cape Verde islands is favorable to turn into Florence over the weekend. We'll have to keep tabs on Florence, but at this point it appears to be a fish storm with little impacts to the North American coastline. A disturbance near Hispaniola appears to head into the Gulf of Mexico early next week which is the main area to watch for the southeast. Another disturbance works off the African coast and that will have to be monitored as well. I am still thinking the main concern is the Gulf of Mexico and the southeast coast from Florida up to North Carolina for the next week or longer.
Folks with interests in the southeast and the Gulf of Mexico should stay in touch with the National Hurricane Center for the latest on what is cooking there. Don't let the quiet season deceive you, activity is going to amp up. Make sure you are prepared in case the big one does come with tips from Hurricane Strong.
Outlook through Tuesday
Friday and Saturday will have some cool starts, especially in the north where some upper 30s are possible around the Allagash and Estcourt region.
A warm front sweeps through Saturday night / early Sunday which may touch off a few widely scattered showers. The front appears to stall along the international border which may cause some scattered showers and thunderstorms for both Sunday and Labor Day.
The humidity builds through the second half of the weekend, and temperatures rise along with it.
It appears to be a beach day on Monday for the southwest coast as some areas may reach 90° over interior York County. A cold front approaches for Tuesday which may bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to start the short work week.
I'll keep watch on what is going on, and may drop in a Facebook update over the weekend, or on the site here if necessary. You can always watch or follow me on Twitter for any snippets of information I pass along there.
As always, stay in touch with the National Weather Service in Gray for western and southern areas or Caribou for eastern and northern regions for the latest bulletins, advisories and forecasts from those fine folks.
Pine Tree Weather is still in pledge drive to keep the site going. For more information, check out the Donate page. Thanks to those who have made pledges and sent checks already. I am truly blessed by your support!
Have a safe and enjoyable weekend!
Hope you enjoyed the break
After the pleasant weekend with comfortable temperatures and dew points, the pattern is shifting back to July-type weather with hazy, hot and humid conditions that will grip the region through Wednesday. An approaching cold front Wednesday into Thursday will bring temperatures and dew points back down to levels experienced over the past weekend. A popular question around the coffee pot and water cooler would be "Is there any more of this heat coming?", which my reply is "We'll be above average for a while, yet".
One key element missing from this water vapor image is the lack of a tropical hose. While it will be plenty humid, the lack of moisture from the south will keep the rain threat down considerably.
The other feature missing is there is very little upper level energy of any value riding along the periphery of the heat dome. While showers and storms will be in the forecast through Wednesday, the lack of tropical moisture and atmospheric triggers is likely to keep the severe threat minimal.
The furnace returns
Tuesday's heat will primarily be along coastal areas except over the islands and shoreline areas that get a breeze off the water in a southwest direction.
By Wednesday the heat will be an issue much further inland, with many areas in the mid to upper 90s, with a few triple digits sprinkled in.
I suspect the Air Quality Index will be poor in the heavily populated southwestern areas, which is typical with high heat indices such as this.
Some severe weather potential
With northern areas on the periphery of the heat dome, weak disturbances will travel along the boundary and could flare up some pop up showers with some isolated strong to severe storms on Tuesday.
As the ridge begins to collapse Wednesday, more areas get in on the potential for storms as a cold front approaches from the northwest. There is the chance that all areas may see some sort of activity, but at this point the severe idea appears isolated over Maine.
We may have to deal with another round showers and storms on Thursday before drier air arrives in time to start the weekend.
A return to lower dew points late week
After a yet another day of dew point temperatures around 70°, the cold front passes through the region Wednesday night and a northwest breeze will blow the humidity out to sea and bring back comfortable weather in all locations Thursday night into Friday morning.
Labor Day Weekend sneak peek
Temperatures and humidity appear generally comfortable over the holiday weekend. A warm front approaches the region Sunday with may bring some scattered showers and warmer temperatures for southern areas are possible as we head into Monday. Timing and details will come later this week.
Dry times return in the longer range
As I mentioned in my Facebook update late last week, we're returning to a similar pattern as we were in late spring. It's more of a west to east zonal flow, and the result is very little moisture to work with. We may see some chances for showers and storms and a front or two that may bring a bit of water to the rain gauges, but the overall outlook for now appears below normal precipitation wise. Of course, that would change if anything tropical in nature flares up and rides up the coast, where there is always that possibility as we enter into peak hurricane season.
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Please stay in touch with the National Weather Service for updated forecasts, bulletins and advisories in your area. Check in with NWS Gray for western and southern areas, and NWS Caribou for northern and eastern zones.
Storms to be isolated statewide
POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Lightning, gusty winds, downpours, and small hail. Reduced visibility in heavy rain. Any flash flooding / urban street flooding likely to be localized.
The severe threat overall appears to be isolated at best with this system. Best chance will be for southern areas from Fryeburg over to Casco to Portland and points south and west. That chance comes in the afternoon after the warm front moves into eastern Maine and the sky begins to clear over southern areas. With the track of the system, I do think there is good chance for an isolated strong to severe storm to impact southern areas towards evening.
The day won't be a complete washout
Futurecast radar loop idea from the NAM-WRF model from 6 PM Tuesday through midnight Thursday shows scattered showers and storms crossing the state during the day, becoming widely scattered from west to east as we head towards evening. Outside of a few isolated rain showers overnight, the precipitation ends for most by late evening.
Humidity makes a brief visit
This NAM-WRF model forecast shows the humidity surge back into the area during the day on Wednesday as the warm front approaches. Dew point temperatures could reach into the 70s once again during the day as the warm front passes through. This will be a short stay as dry air behind the cold front passes clears out the humidity Wednesday night into early Thursday. The muggy conditions are on track to exit the coast around daylight Thursday morning.
Outlook for the weekend... splendid
After the showers and storms pass through Wednesday, high pressure moves over the region and takes control for the rest of the week. The high will move offshore late Saturday / early Sunday and a southwest flow will develop and carry a warm front into the region late in the day, which may touch off a shower or thunderstorm over mainly western and northern areas towards late afternoon and into the evening.
Temperatures appear to range from the 70s on Thursday, with 70s/80s Friday, Saturday, and Sunday.
The humidity from Thursday through Saturday appears comfortable, and then will begin to increase Sunday as the southwest flow pumps moisture back into the area. This round of sticky air could hang around for at least the first couple of days next week. More updates on this to come.
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Not only do I appreciate your contributions, but your words of thanks, appreciation and encouragement mean the world to me.
Currently, I am at about 30% funding of $3,300 for the year to operate this entity. I am in need of $2,310 to reach my goal, and that is just to pay my bills. Those bills begin to come due in October.
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One shot for rain this week
An area of low pressure over the midwest is on track to move northeast Tuesday. As a warm front attached to the low approaches, clouds will be on the increase and the humidity will begin to rise. A few remote light showers are possible late Tuesday, but the bulk of the rainfall is likely on Wednesday. Once this clears out Wednesday night into Thursday, a dry and comfortable period returns for the remainder of the week. Next chance for shower activity may come later in the weekend.
A damp Wednesday, but not a washout
Forecast radar loop idea from the NAM model from noon Tuesday through Wednesday evening shows the timeline for rainfall. The more numerous showers and storms cross the state in the morning to early afternoon, with a few stray showers and storms possible after the cold front passes through.
Storms may contain frequent lightning, gusty winds, hail, and heavy rain. The severe threat appears low, but cannot be completely ruled out.
I will update on this Tuesday, either here or on Facebook.
Tropics still quiet... for now
Not a whole lot going on the Atlantic basin. It's been a very quiet season thus far outside of some sub-tropical systems that have formed well away from the North American continent. Several factors to this being a large quantity of Saharan dust, wind shear and dry air. The wind shear factor and dust is showing signs of diminishing, which is typical for this time year. The amount of dry air over the Atlantic may take some time to erode.
High pressure has been more or less camped out over the central part of the ocean for several weeks now. The arctic is showing signs of early fall with falling temperatures and storm pattern. The combination of all of this makes this forecaster think for the short term that if anything tropical in nature is going to mature, it will be fairly close to the southeast coastline, either the Gulf of Mexico or in the vicinity of the Bahamas. Given the close proximity to the shoreline, development could happen very quickly under the right scenario.
Are you prepared for a potential storm? Now is the time to think about it to avoid the panic and the rush. Make sure you are Hurricane Strong and be prepared if a storm is on track to affect the region.
Today (Monday, August 20th) is the 27th anniversary of Hurricane Bob making landfall in Rhode Island as a Category 2 hurricane. 'Tis the season.
Pledge drive ongoing
After the first week of pledge drive, supporters have been gracious enough to get my yearly funding off to a running start. As of Monday morning, Pine Tree Weather is just over 25% funded for the year. The beginning in October is when my yearly bills start rolling in for the website, forecast data, software, and graphics. For those who have already made a pledge, my heartfelt thanks to you for believing in what I am doing here. All I am looking for is $1 a month from followers. You can pledge on my Patreon page or you can message me on Facebook or on Twitter if you would prefer to mail a check. If you have any questions, please message me so I can answer them.
As always, please stay in touch with the National Weather Service in Caribou for eastern and northern areas, and Gray for western and southern parts of Maine for the latest forecasts, bulletins and advisories.
Thank you as always for your support of the community supported and funded weather source!
Enjoy the refreshment
We'll wave good-bye to this round of the sticky conditions Thursday as drier and much more comfortable air arrives from the northwest. Since early July, the region has endured many humid days, and could rank near or at the top for dew point records. A few monthly and seasonal temperature records are likely to be challenged also. While it has been sticky, the high heat has stayed away of late, and that trend appears to continue.
Enjoy the break. It will be short lived as humidity will increase again on Friday and stay with us for Saturday. After that it will depart again for Sunday. We'll see another round of sticky by mid next week.
Some areas may see a spot shower as the air clears out the humidity Thursday, but other than that, it should be a dry day overall.
The water vapor satellite view from early Thursday morning shows the players on the table for the next few days. Once the frontal boundary passes through, high pressure will make a brief visit before departing early Friday. A warm front is on track to bring showers and perhaps thunderstorms Friday afternoon into the evening for southern and western areas. Showers and a rumble or two are possible for Saturday. This round of precipitation departs Saturday night as a cold front from the northwest sweeps it out.
Sunday appears dry for much of the state, but is in question for southern areas, due to the track of an upper air disturbance from the northern plains catching up with the cold front passing through the area Saturday.
Friday into Saturday likely to be damp
This part of the forecast is high confidence at this point as far as the chances for rain are concerned. It may not be a total washout, but some spots could get some localized heavy rain showers given the uptick in humidity. The threat for severe weather appears low, with southern areas seeing the best chance, pending on cloud cover. There is a greater threat for strong to severe storms to the south and west of the state on Friday as the warm front approaches.
Sunday brings questions for southern areas
It's important to indicate here that this model depiction is an outlier for now, meaning there is no other support from other guidance of this possibility. That said, it's not totally out of the box with its idea. Two things that could make this reality is the position of the surface high east of Newfoundland, and the position of the frontal boundary just offshore of southern New England. For those reasons, I cannot rule out this possibility. There is potential for low pressure to form along the frontal boundary and tighten up as the day progresses Sunday, which could bring some showers over southwestern areas.
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Eight year forecaster.