Welcome to summer
For those who like their Maine summers with comfortable temperatures during the day, cool nights, and low humidity, you will enjoy the weather for the next week and beyond. The extreme heat and humidity appears to stay well south. We'll get some humidity rises here and there as frontal boundaries work through, but the "weather you can wear" does not appear to be an issue through the rest of June.
The big picture
Surface map idea of the European model through early Tuesday presents a few showers working through the state Wednesday night into Thursday morning. As that clears out, the rest of the work week appears dry and pleasant. Clouds will be on the increase Friday afternoon and overspread the state Friday night into Saturday morning. A warm front approaches the state Saturday which will kick off some shower activity. A cold front approaches the region on Sunday into Monday, bringing another round of showers, and perhaps a thunderstorm for western and southern areas Sunday afternoon. The front slowly pushes through the area on Monday, with clearing skies into Tuesday.
Pattern remains zonal
We just can't seem to shake the block that has been over Greenland that has influenced our weather pattern for much of spring. Repeated weak troughs continue to rotate through the area offering little moisture and keeping temperatures on the cool side. We may see a brief shift in the pattern as a ridge builds in for the middle part of next week. The absence of a Bermuda High will keep the heat and humidity to the south, even with the ridge taking over temporarily.
Beneficial rain appears possible
The Weather Prediction Center idea for rainfall over the next week appears encouraging for western and southern areas that are dealing with drought conditions. While this is a general idea of what to expect, results will likely vary. The Wednesday morning European operation run was a bit more bullish on heavier amounts of rain for the coastal plain. I've seen this movie before, so it's difficult for me to get too excited about it. If much of drought area can pick up a half inch or so Saturday through Monday, anything beyond that will be a bonus.
Regional outlook through Monday
Folks in the Allagash and protected valleys of the western mountains may see a touch of frost Thursday night into Friday. While showers are in the forecast through the weekend, I do not expect it to be a total washout. Folks in the western and southern areas may see an isolated thunderstorm Sunday afternoon as humidity ticks up a bit and any sun may fuel a few pop up storms. Severe weather is unlikely at this point. The afternoons on both Saturday and Sunday are likely to have more shower activity than the mornings. Pending on how the front progresses will dictate how Monday plays out.
For official forecasts, bulletins and advisories, please stay in touch with the National Weather Service in Gray for western and southern areas, or Caribou for eastern and northern areas. Feel free to give the Pine Tree Weather Facebook page a "like" for additional information there, and follow me on Twitter for more snippets of weather related items of interest.
Thanks as always for your support!
A dry weekend that will feel like summer
Friday starts off on the cool side, especially for the far northeastern areas of the state, but temperatures will rise steadily all weekend. It is shaping up to be a classic Maine summer weekend, with comfortable temperatures, dry conditions, and respectable humidity levels.
If you're headed to the seaside beaches...
We're in the heart of the new moon phase, and astronomical tides are expected to bring some minor coastal flooding during the overnight high tide cycles. Daytime cycles are also running high, which may cramp on some real estate on the beaches in the afternoon over the next three days. Just be aware that the tide will be on the way in as the morning into early afternoon progresses, then will recede in the mid-afternoon and evening hours. Plan your spot accordingly.
Latest Drought Monitor tells us the obvious
No real changes to this week's Drought Monitor report. The MidCoast and southwestern areas of the state are in "abnormally dry" conditions based on water table monitors in the region. As I have said in previous updates, conservation of ground water supplies should continue for the foreseeable future.
Dry weekend increases fire danger
This broken record keeps skipping on the turntable due to the dry conditions, but treat this as yet another public service reminder to check in with the Maine Forest Service, local fire departments and park rangers for burn permits and regulations through the weekend. Calls to fire departments and to the Forest Service for unattended camp fire burns and mulch fires from careless cigarette disposal are continuing on a steady basis. If you see some burning that is going on that may get out of hand, report it to the authorities to deal with it as soon as possible. Hikers and campers should make sure fires are completely extinguished when they are no longer necessary. Let's all do our part to protect the beauty of the state.
Humidity rises later into the weekend
The browns and blues indicating a dry air column will be replaced with tropical moist yellows and reds by the time Monday arrives. This will be a reminder that summer weather does indeed exist and that the season is due to arrive later next week. This round will be short lived as a cold front sweeps the sultry air out of the state Monday into Tuesday. It will be that approaching front where there is cause for concern.
Severe storm potential for Monday
With the increase in air moisture comes with it the first round of "feels like" temperatures hitting well into the 90s and could tip the century mark in southern areas Monday afternoon.
Regardless of where you may be in the Pine Tree State on Monday, it is very likely to be a sticky affair with dew points temperatures in the 60s to low 70s. This will make air quality poor, cause heat fatigue and oppressive temperatures.
Then, the front approaches in the afternoon...
For now, it's a timing game for severe weather potential Monday afternoon. With the high heat and humidity, plenty of moisture, and gas for thunderstorms (Convective Available Potential Energy, shown above as CAPE) in place, all that is somewhat unknown is when the front descends through the region. At this point, it appears to be Monday afternoon. Western, eastern and southern areas appear at risk for severe storms as it appears for now. As the weekend progresses, guidance will get a better handle on the timing of the cold front. It would be wise to stay tuned to the forecast over the next few days.
Regional Outlook through Tuesday
Again, it will be great weekend statewide. While the idea of severe weather on Monday is concerning, one upside of that is the potential for some much needed rainfall. Looking ahead, it appears to be a dry week ahead with very little rainfall expected until perhaps Friday / Saturday.
For the latest official forecasts, bulletins and advisories, please check in with the National Weather Service in Caribou for northern and eastern Maine, and Gray for western and southern areas.
Thank you as always for your support!
Bulk of precipitation stays north
This idea has been pretty consistent for the last three days. Northern areas are likely to receive most of the rainfall, while parched areas of the south deal with pot luck showers that may bring some measurable rain in some areas, while others get shut out. The further south in the state, the risk of a shower becomes more isolated, where to the north, it is a foregone conclusion.
After showers clear early Friday, a nice weekend ahead
The zonal pattern the area has more or less been in since March continues. While the benefit is a nice Maine summer (low humidity, near average temperatures), it certainly does not help the southern and western areas with rainfall deficits. The next chance for shower activity comes again Sunday night into Monday. Humidity levels are expected to rise Sunday evening ahead of the frontal boundary, but will exit to the east almost as quickly as it builds in come Monday afternoon.
Regional Outlook Through Monday
After the front clears Thursday, cold air behind it sets up the possibility for frost in protected areas Friday morning. Guidance is hinting at widespread 80° degree temperatures on Sunday. I am not quite buying that just yet for the northern two thirds of the state, with cloud cover being imperative to reach that level. Monday appears damp for now, but this pattern is somewhat similar to the system coming through on Thursday. The clipper type systems tend to bring more precipitation to the north, while fizzling to the south as the front runs out of moisture.
Stillness of the sunrise from Cape Porpoise
Looking at longer term guidance, summer appears to arrive for the region on time (June 21st) as a warm up appears on the way. Precipitation chances are the big question mark at this point. I am not seeing much in the way of humidity from the southwest that hangs around the region for very long. Without that precipitation hose, it's going to be tough to bring any widespread, beneficial rainfall to the areas that need it the most.
Reports of mulch and brush fires are increasing, again. Campers, hikers and bonfire enthusiasts need to pay close attention to the Maine Forest Service and/or local fire departments for permit information indefinitely. Use extreme care with any open burning.
For official forecasts, advisories and bulletins, please check in with the National Weather Service offices in Gray for western and southern areas, and Caribou for northern and eastern areas.
Thanks as always for you support!
Northern areas to get beneficial rainfall
The Crown of Maine will get a decent rainfall Wednesday and Thursday as a frontal boundary becomes quasi-stationary over the state. Western and eastern areas are expected to see some shower activity which will bring some rain of benefit. As for southern areas, it will amount to "pot luck" showers and thunderstorms to determine whether or not the crops, flowers and lawns will need a watering.
Isolated thunderstorms possible
The Storm Prediction Center outlook for Wednesday indicates the potential for strong to severe weather over much of New York, with the threat diminishing further to the east. The best chance for areas of Maine to experience isolated storms will be Wednesday night into the wee hours of Thursday as the warm front moves to the northeast. The best chance for storms is likely over the southern two thirds of the state, with northern areas staying on the cooler, less humid side of the front.
Showers and storms to arrive in afternoon
Outside of a brief shower possible for the far north Wednesday morning, showers and storms hold off until the afternoon for northern, western and southern areas, and evening for eastern areas. As I mentioned in the update yesterday, cold air is fooling guidance as usual, which has slowed the approach of the trailing cold front from Quebec. This has thrown off timing for precipitation development, and this model idea may also be a bit off, just so you are aware. The odds will increase as the day turns into night. I will post an update in the morning on the timing of this on the Pine Tree Weather Facebook page, with more updates on Twitter as the day unfolds.
Outlook for the weekend and into next week
After the front clears out of the area early Friday, less humid and comfortable temperatures (indicated by the red) to start the weekend is on tap. High pressure shifts offshore Saturday night. A southwest flow develops ahead of another front that approaches the region from Quebec on Sunday. Northern and western areas may see a showers in the afternoon on Sunday. The very warm, humid air arrives for Monday (indicated by the brown) as the front works to pass through as the day unfolds, bringing a risk for showers and thunderstorms statewide. Dry air and seasonable temperatures return for the middle part of the week.
Regional Outlook through Sunday
Showers and breezy conditions are likely for Wednesday and Thursday, and possible for Sunday. Folks in the far north may need to cover up plants Thursday evening in the protected valleys as frost may be possible. A sea breeze along the shorelines keeps the beaches on the cool side for Wednesday and over the weekend.
Status On Updates
Between life and a rather mundane weather pattern, I have been a bit delinquent with updating frequency. Now that we are settled into our new home, we are dealing with numerous family matters, as well as enjoying the community and the surroundings. Another thing I have been lagging on is sharing my photography when I do update. I will work on correcting both. Our weather pattern hasn't changed much, and it doesn't appear to any time soon.
The dry spring continues
Even with the March snow events, most of the state is in a deficit as far as rain totals go for the spring. As I mentioned in my update last week, this stealth drought the region is in has been going on for four years at least at this point.
This is from the archives from last year when I was discussing the drought, and the deficit for much of western, southern, and eastern areas was well documented back to 2014 at that point. The High Plains Regional Climate Center (HRPCC) data only goes back 36 months, and I am working to find data older than that.
Model ideas look good for northern Maine to get a decent charge of rain, which will fall Wednesday and Thursday this week. This Weather Prediction Center idea posted Monday morning is fairly consistent with model guidance. This also shows the frontal boundary coming in, and the tricky set up along it. There is a stark difference between the haves and the have-nots. Any deviation north or south tips the scales as far as who gets beneficial rain and who escapes with light showers. Yeah, it's "thatclose".
While the northern part of the state heads out of below normal rainfall, much of the southern part of the state continues with a dry pattern overall through much of the rest of the month. Since we are now in tropical storm season in the Northern Hemisphere, it will take some action in both the Pacific and Atlantic to throw a wrench into the upper air patterns to bring moisture to the region.
Just my humble opinion... keep conserving groundwater resources until further notice. For folks using some sort of irrigation, bet on your pumps getting a long work out. Expect fire danger to be an ongoing concern. Campers, hikers, bonfire enthusiasts, and those doing brush clean ups need to stay in touch with the Maine Forest Service and local fire departments, as well as park rangers for burn regulations. Just because it may be alright in your region today, doesn't mean it will be that way tomorrow.
The set up for rain midweek
Tuesday sees high pressure move offshore and a southwest flow develops ahead of a frontal boundary approaching from the west. Clouds appear to gradually increase during the day, with showers breaking out late Tuesday / early Wednesday. The front more or less stalls over the state and precipitation rides along it through the wee hours of Friday.
This temperature graphic shows the starkness in temperature between north and south, and also helps to explain the precipitation outlook posted above. There is a fine line in all of this. The north is likely to see the coolest of temperatures and the most rainfall from this event. How far south the beneficial rain falls is dependent upon where the front decides it wants to go. Like in winter, cold air will dictate what happens here, and also throws out the idea of a forecast bust. A bust in this case means more or less rainfall and with that, cooler or warmer temperatures. For those in western, eastern and southern areas cheering for rainfall, you'll want that bust.
Once bit of hope for southern, western and eastern areas will be that there is a chance of thunderstorms to develop along the front. This may bring some heavier rain in areas, but the threat for now appears isolated due to cloud cover. The rule of thumb for summer remains the same: if the sun gets out for any period of time, expect thunderstorms to develop. When thunder roars, head indoors.
Outlook Through Saturday
Folks in the north and west should continue to be aware of potential frost Monday night into Tuesday, and perhaps later in the week. Coastal areas can expect a sea breeze on Tuesday. Saturday appears to be a beach day for the shorelines, but the chilly ocean continues to keep the seaside areas on the cooler side.
The extended outlook calls for another nice day for Sunday, with the next potential rain maker coming in early next week.
As always, stay updated with the National Weather Service in Caribou for eastern and northern areas, and Gray for western and southern Maine for official forecasts and bulletins as necessary.
Feel free to give a like on the Pine Tree Weather Facebook page and follow me on Twitter for tropical information and local weather bulletins.
Thank you as always for your support!
Most of the region received -some- rainfall
Since my last update the region received some needed rainfall with DownEast areas receiving the most and the northeast Crown receiving very little. These are rough estimates from station observations and spotter reports. I measured 0.63" of rainfall total at my home in Kennebunk, so locally higher amounts in areas would have been possible.
More rainfall on the way
This estimate from the Weather Prediction Center through Monday shows projected rain accumulation on the way. Most of this will fall by Friday. In the big picture, it's not going to amount to a whole lot, and could be locally higher or lower pending on shower formation.
Dry times to continue well into the month
The outlook for rainfall amounts has not improved as we move into June. In fact, it may be a drier idea than what was posted in my previous updates. Many of the rivers, brooks and streams over the western and southern parts of the state are trickling, if that, even with the recent weekend rainfall. Folks who depend on groundwater supplies should be conserving usage if not already doing so.
Conserve water, stay in touch with the Maine Forest Service, local park rangers, and/or your local fire department for burn permits and campfire usage.
Roughly 50% of the state of Maine and a large portion of New England has been in a stealth drought for a number of years now. For those who have followed my observations for a while may remember this graphic from the past years. It hasn't changed much. If anything, this stealth drought has gone on for four years at least, and perhaps longer than that. The areas hasn't seen a super soaking tropical event for a number of years now. It may take one or two to put a dent in this deep deficit much of the region is in.
Weather pattern unlikely to change much soon
While a strong ridge will develop over the central parts of the continent as the week progresses, the trough continues to act as a block over the northeast. As the ridge to the west strengthens, the trough amplifies, keeping the heat and humidity away. Where parts of Newfoundland, Labrador and eastern Quebec saw as much as a foot of snow last week, those same areas could see another round or two of accumulating snow later this weekend and again next week. It may be the third week in June when summer arrives, not only astrologically, but actually.
Regional outlook through the weekend
The outlook here is rather straightforward. As the weak troughs work through the region, they bring scattered light rain showers through the remainder of the week. Another trough pushes across northern and western areas on Saturday, which may bring a brief spot shower in areas. Sunday appears for now to be the pick of the weekend, with showers possible to return early next week. Temperatures average out to be close to seasonal normal values, perhaps a touch warmer, over the next five days.
As always, stay in touch with the National Weather Service offices in Gray for western and southern Maine and Caribou for eastern and northern Maine for the latest advisories and bulletins.
Thank you as always for your support!
Saturday starts off with areas of fog
For those early risers who want to get a jump on the weekend activities, expect areas of fog that could be locally dense in spots in the morning. As the post-dawn hours progress, the sky will clear out, which will make for a mostly sunny afternoon with less humidity and near seasonable temperatures.
But it will be a breezy one...
As the clouds decrease, the wind gusts will increase out of the west northwest as high pressure moves into the region. It appears to be breezy for much of the region through the day on Saturday, settling down during the day on Sunday.
Folks heading out on lakes and ocean for a boat trip can expect some chop on the water which may make it a bit rough. Folks in smaller vessels should use caution. Sunday appears to be the better watercraft day.
Showers return for the start of the week
Clouds begin to increase Sunday evening ahead of a weak warm front approaching from the west. Showers can be expected to break out from west to east on Monday. A trailing cold front keeps showers in the forecast for Tuesday. Low pressure forming off the Mid-Atlantic brings the threat for showers, drizzle and perhaps fog for the shorelines on Wednesday. After a dry day on Thursday, another frontal boundary approaches the region on Friday.
5-Day Outlook through Wednesday
Temperatures certainly appear on the cool side from Sunday onward. Folks in the mountains and north in protected areas may see some frost Sunday and Monday morning, but that is likely to be isolated at best. While it will be showery off and on through midweek, there is not a whole lot of accumulating rainfall expected.
For the latest official forecast information and bulletins, please check out NWS Gray for western and southern areas, and NWS Caribou for eastern and northern areas.
I will be taking the weekend off. My next update will come on Monday.
Have a great weekend, everyone!
The mountains and north could get isolated storms
Given the lack of atmospheric forcing with the frontal boundary, the chance for severe storms has been reduced to isolated for western and northern areas. As I stated in my update yesterday, what is likely to occur are slow moving pulse storms which could bring flash flooding from heavy rain. Southern and western areas may get a shower around midday ahead of the frontal approach in the afternoon. It will be a "weather you can wear" type of day as dew points climb into the 60s to perhaps the low 70s for southwest interior areas. It will be uncomfortable, but short lived.
Coastal areas may see some fog Saturday morning, but as the northwest breeze picks up, that should blow out by mid-morning, with a nice day on tap statewide.
More showers on the way Monday into Tuesday
This loop gives a general idea of what to expect precipitation wise through early next week. After the cold front slides through on Friday, it will be a dry, but cool weekend. Clouds will be on the increase from west to east Monday and showers are in the offing Monday into early Tuesday. We could have another rain event for the middle part of next week.
Given the lack of moisture from the southwest, these rain events next week are likely to be scattered in nature. When systems approach us from the northwest, there generally isn't a whole lot of rainfall that comes out of these. As like the clipper snow makers in winter, there is often little moisture to work with and the impacts are minimal for most.
And yes, your eyes aren't deceiving you... yes, that is snow (blue shaded) in the forecast for Newfoundland over the weekend. The cold air continues to lurk to our northeast. Mother Nature could care less that the calendar is about to flip to June.
Outlook through Tuesday
If you like the heat and humidity, Friday will be your day. The cooler trend that occurs after that will be with us for the next several days. June appears to be on the cool and generally dry side for much of the northeast through the first half of the month. Summer may show up on it's official astronomical start date come the third week of the month.
As always, please stay in touch with NWS Caribou for northern and eastern areas, and NWS Gray for western and southern regions for the latest bulletins and forecast information.
Feel free to follow the Pine Tree Weather Facebook page and my Twitter account for more information from me.
Thanks as always for your support!
Muggy weather returns
Thursday sees the humidity gradually increase during the day and into the evening. High pressure keeping the region cool and dry appears to be a bit stubborn in departure, which may keep the sultry air away from most of the region until after night fall. Friday will certainly be a sticky affair, but it will only be for a day as drier air returns on Saturday.
Storm threat for Friday
This loop here is from the NAM-WRF model starting at 5 AM Friday until 7 PM. This is rough idea of what to expect for timing and type. As time grows closer, a few things can be ruled out. Tornadoes and damaging wind do not appear to be factor. These storms appear of a pulse variety, which with little upper air wind means what storms form will likely move slow and cause flash flood potential rain in isolated areas.
As discussed in yesterday's update, there will be plenty of moisture, along with convective energy and cooler temperatures aloft that will touch off showers and thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon into the wee hours of Saturday morning. There could be a few isolated showers around daylight along the coast, but those appear short lived and the region will clear out during the day. I am not going to rule out severe potential just yet. Anytime there is tropical air with cold air bearing down on the region, there is the threat for strong storms.
Stay tuned for updates.
The bowling balls continue to roll
After the warm up late week and cool down over the weekend, it appears that even cooler air is likely to start off in June. While it is early to tell, the gardeners and farmers will want to pay attention to frost threats in the middle part of next week. After that, a ridge appears to build in to warm the region for the second full weekend of June.
Drought concerns rising
Without question it has been a very dry spring for western and southern areas, and abnormally dry for eastern areas of the state. Northern Maine is down on rainfall for the month, but for the season is only off fractionally or in the case of Caribou, showing a surplus. All areas of the state are running below average for May, and it will end that way as the month closes out on Thursday.
Numbers not shown in the graphic but worth noting, our neighbors in New Hampshire are feeling the effects from the dry conditions, also. Manchester has only recorded 0.77" of rain for May and is down 2.97" from it's monthly average of 3.74". Concord has received slightly more at 1.01" for the month, off 2.39" of its average of 3.40". Seasonally (since March 1st) Manchester is down 4.29" and Concord is off 2.17" from normal. This information, along with the deficits for Portland and Augusta indicate the lack of rain is affecting much of southern New Hampshire, and is a regional problem for central New England.
The outlook for the first couple weeks of June aren't showing much relief from the drought conditions, either. For those who depend on well water, you should be conserving supply if you have not already. For the hikers, campers, those who want to burn off brush or have a bonfire, you need to stay in touch with the Maine Forest Service and local fire departments for permits and information. Wildfire concerns will persist until meaningful rain comes, and that could be awhile.
Outlook through Monday
Outside of a couple of minor adjustments to temperatures, the forecast hasn't changed much heading into the weekend. With the increased humidity, fog could be a concern for coastal areas Friday morning. I will keep the threat for severe storms in the forecast and may alter that in my update tomorrow pending on overnight data and review of conditions to the west.
As always, stay in touch with NWS Caribou for northern and eastern Maine and NWS Gray for western and southern Maine for official forecasts, bulletins, and information.
You can follow Pine Tree Weather on Facebook and Twitter for more information from me.
As always, thank you for your shares, comments, and support!
Roller coaster weather pattern continues
After another dry day Wednesday, a southwest flow ahead of a cold front drives the humidity levels high Thursday night into Friday. Showers and thunderstorms develop Friday as the front moves through the region. A back door cold front sinks south late Friday, providing a dry but cooler trend for the weekend.
Severe potential from Alberto remnants late week
Folks statewide should stay in close contact with the forecast in regards to Friday for severe weather potential. A frontal boundary containing rich remnant moisture from Alberto moves westward during the day. Storms could bring frequent lightning, flash flooding, gusty winds and hail. Time will tell if tornadic features may also be a concern. PLEASE stay updated on the forecast.
Dry times continue...
Outside of the northeast corner of The County, most of the state is well below normal for rainfall. Some areas did pick up some Saturday evening from the recent front that passed through, but many areas didn't see much, if anything. Southern areas remain on pace for the second driest May on record, a mark likely achieved as the month ends on Thursday.
I wish I had better news to report on the prospects for rain. The rainfall idea from the Weather Prediction Center Tuesday morning shows some liquid on the way late week from the Alberto remnants, but this is only a rough idea. Knowing the front will be tropical in nature may provide some heavy rain in areas, but some areas may escape with low end amounts. The next chance for a widespread rain event appears next week, but that is a low confidence idea for now.
Regional Outlook through the weekend
In the past, I have issued two separate forecast panels to cover regional outlooks. At times I found it to be difficult to be more accurate for the region due to varying conditions. This graphic I am testing for now to see if it is going to work. I would like feedback from you on whether you like the new presentation. My own self critique indicates that it is a bit busy, but it does do the job to allow me to become more specific for the region.
The only mention on this outlook worth mentioning is I expect a coastal sea breeze on Saturday that will likely keep the shorelines of the south and east in the 60s. Other than that, the forecast for now looks good for each area.
Stay in touch with NWS Gray for western and southern Maine, NWS Caribou for eastern and northern Maine, the Pine Tree Weather Facebook page and my Twitter account for more information.
Thanks as always for your support!