A nasty couple of days ahead
It's not quite the kitchen sink being thrown at us like last weekend, but pretty close. It's just going to be quite unpleasant Friday and Saturday, and the birds may question why they are hanging around here. It's not going to be a good period for any outdoor activity. It will be a good period to make some good food, read up on some books, watch movies and chill.
Some of the storm activity could be potent enough for various bulletins to be issued by the National Weather Service. Keep your weather radio handy, and check the batteries to make sure it still works.
Soggy at times for the region
Northern areas may start off with some snow overnight into Friday morning, but warm air will take over and melt any frozen precipitation as the day unfolds. Steady, heavy rain moves northeast during the day, tapering to scattered showers for a few hours before low pressure along the front brings more heavy rain Friday night into Saturday. Another area of low pressure Saturday morning into the afternoon and will carry the frontal boundary out of the area by Saturday night. As it is doing so, it will drag cold air down from Quebec, which may bring a couple inches of snow for the folks around Rangeley - Eustis - Jackman area on up to the Allagash Saturday afternoon into the late evening. Mountain snow showers and flurries are likely for Sunday while the rest of the area dries out.
No real changes in expected rainfall
The folks at the Weather Prediction Center along with the local National Weather Service offices are pretty consistent on rainfall ideas, and with the model ideas out there, I agree with them. A general 1-3" of rain is likely statewide, with locally higher amounts possible in downpours and embedded thunderstorms through Saturday night. This also includes the water content of any snow that falls on the front side in far northern areas, as well as on the backside for the western mountains and north.
Rain is still very much needed for most of the state
After the abnormally dry spring of April, May, and June, much of the region was running in a rather significant deficit. Once July came, the rain started coming at times to begin to chisel away at the shortfall. While October was a damp one with showers and couple of storms here and there, most reporting stations indicated a slight surplus for the month. That said, four out of the seven locations are still running at a year-to-date deficit, in some cases by more than four inches.
From the first of May through the conclusion of October, much of the state is below normal on rainfall. Folks in western and central parts of the state who have messaged me with groundwater concerns had legitimate reasons.
An even wider time frame spreading out over the past three years shows even a greater shortfall on rain amounts. Much of western and coastal areas of Maine have been in a silent drought for a number of years now. In my last couple of years living in Poland I was affected by it with my artesian well running low, in some cases, a trickle. Given the weather patterns of the last several years, most of the rain has fallen to the south.
In comparison to this capture between November 2014-2017, the trend for rainfall continues to progress northward. This event this weekend will help, and there is more on the way for the middle part of next week.
Outlook through Tuesday
I will not be updating this page on Friday. I will be out of state for most of the day. I may do a Facebook post at some point time permitting. Stay tuned to the National Weather Service for the latest from them.
More updates to come over the weekend
For the latest official forecasts, bulletins and advisories, please check in with the National Weather Service in Gray for western and southern areas, or Caribou for northern and eastern parts of Maine.
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Always stay weather aware, and thank you for your support!
Seven year forecaster.