As September is about ready to close, the pattern of zonal systems, stalled frontal boundaries, and cooler temperatures appears on the horizon. The days are getting shorter, the Arctic is becoming more active, and the heat dome which pumped well over a months worth of steamy days and nights the past few months is slowly beginning to erode.  The sum total of all of these atmospheric ingredients is that an unsettled period is ahead as we march into October.

We're not completely done with muggy weather just yet as a strong ridge over the western part of the country will act as a block and allow moisture to flare up from the south, just to get knocked back down as west to east frontal boundaries cut across the northeast.  Hurricane Rosa in the eastern Pacific, an active pattern around the Bering Straits, along the deep low from Leslie over the North Atlantic will be the significant weather features to watch for clues for how the second week in October plays out.

I don't want to sound alarmist here, but as we flip the calendar, the threat for more potent storms is on the horizon. Make sure you are prepared, and keep tabs on the forecast. 

Showers overspread the region Thursday night into Friday morning as a weak low travels along a stalled frontal boundary to the south.  This is a quick event. The showers over the mountains and north are on track to dissipate by mid to late morning, and will be all but over for southern and eastern areas by mid-afternoon. 

There is not a whole lot of accumulation expected with this. Northern areas may not register much in measurable rainfall. The coastal plain likely sees the most out of this, and that isn't a whole lot. Southern areas provide some intrigue for a bit of over performance potential due to the track of the impulse and energy associated with it. 

Friday evening football activity should be precipitation free, but with falling temperatures as most areas will be in the 40s by the time games wrap up in the evening. 

While the outlook is unsettled, there is not a whole lot of rain that will come out of this as the fronts appear to be somewhat moisture starved. 

The northern and western areas may see a brief shower on Saturday as a disturbance sweeps through. Sunday will be a chilly start. If you are still growing, you'll want to cover up the plants Saturday night. A frontal boundary to the south pushes north into the region Monday which may bring more scattered showers in the morning.  The front stalls and another impulse forms along it and arrives Tuesday and appears to linger into Wednesday. 

As we head into the latter part of next week, a cold front appears to approach the region Thursday and the Columbus Day Weekend may start off unsettled as well. 

For the latest official forecasts, bulletins and advisories, please check in with the National Weather Service in Gray for western and southern areas, or Caribou for northern and eastern parts of Maine.

For more information from me, please follow the Pine Tree Weather Facebook page and my Twitter feed.

Thanks as always for your support! Please consider making a donation to keep Pine Tree Weather going. Check out the donate page on how to contribute. 

Always stay weather aware! 

​- Mike ​

The two things I mentioned in the Monday evening Facebook post are on track to occur. Remnants of Florence to impact the south, a cold front passes through in its wake from the north. The heavier rain in southern areas appears to be over with early Tuesday afternoon, although I can't rule out a quick downpour from a passing shower or thunderstorm associated with the trailing cold front through Tuesday night. 

Wednesday appears mainly dry at this point, outside of a few sprinkles or a light shower over the north and mountains.

Areas in the coastal plain are likely to receive the most rain from this event. Since this is a tropical system, there runs the chance for thunderstorm development, and if that were to occur, heavier rainfall from downpours are likely.

Severe storms cannot be ruled out, but will likely be isolated if they flare up. Gusty wind, frequent lightning, and downpours are all possible in southern areas with the energy associated with Florence. Any storm activity Tuesday afternoon into the evening may include hail in addition to the aforementioned threats.

As the cold front ascends from the north, this most recent round of humidity will be flushed out of the region with a north / northwest wind by late evening Tuesday into the wee hours of Wednesday morning. The breeze will continue into Wednesday, settling down by Thursday morning. 

Dew points will remain at comfortable levels through the weekend. We may see an uptick in humidity the middle part of next week as a warm from from the southwest may pay a visit, but it does not appear to last very long, if it happens. Fall will arrive on time. 

For the latest official forecasts, bulletins and advisories, please check in with the National Weather Service in Gray for western and southern areas, or Caribou for northern and eastern parts of Maine.

For more information from me, please follow the Pine Tree Weather Facebook page and my Twitter feed.

Thanks as always for your support! Please consider making a donation to keep Pine Tree Weather going. Check out the donate page on how to contribute. 

Always stay weather aware! 

​- Mike 

Shorter periods of daylight. Trees showing some signs of color. Potential for hurricane remnants.  A good chance for frost for the north country later in the week. It is indeed mid-September in Maine. 

For our friends in the Carolina's, our thoughts and prayers are with you. As Harvey proved last year in the western Gulf of Mexico and what Florence is proving this year, tropical systems with no frontal boundary to whisk them away leads to historic levels of fresh water flooding. Cut off areas of low pressure with tropical characteristics never end well, no matter where they are.

Refer to the headline of the post. The key word in all of this is "potential". Over the weekend, guidance has varied a bit in its idea on what Maine could get out of this. Notice two systems on this Euro model loop I have provided here. A frontal boundary over the north, remnants of Florence quickly moves northeastward from the south. All guidance is on board with the idea that the two systems won't phase until the two meet in vicinity of Nova Scotia. That is a bit too close for comfort for me, so I throw up a caution flag on this until tomorrow. 

The latest European ensemble mean idea keeps most of the heavier rain to the south, but it's real close. What I am saying here is there could be bust potential either way with this. The track could go further south or north, pending on the timing of all of this. For now, I will agree with the ideas the models are selling on this, but color me a tad skeptical. 

Folks along the coastal plain (Fryeburg / Waterville / Bangor / Calais south) should prepare for a rain event, one that could be heavy at times, bring some gusty winds, potential for training downpours with flash flood potential, and thunderstorms. I will be right out front that this could be a bust, but it is too close in time and track to fool around here.

Showers begin Monday night over southern areas and Tuesday morning over the north with the approaching system up there. The western and eastern areas could see a few showers in the late afternoon / Tuesday evening time frame overnight into Wednesday. I will update this on the Pine Tree Weather Facebook page Monday evening. 

In the wake of Florence departure of the continent, Canadian high pressure moves into the region temporarily and this time of the year means frost / freeze potential comes along with it. 
Don't let the forecast temperatures on this chart fool you here. This has a good chance to be colder than this. Folks who are still growing or put the mums out for fall should prepare to cover them over in the areas away from the coast noted above. Protected areas in the coastal plain should stay in touch with forecast overnight low temperatures Wednesday night into Thursday morning. If this validates, this may kick off fall foliage color over the mountains and north in the next week. Keep that in mind if you want to plan your trips and photography excursions. 

Southern and eastern areas may have to deal with some areas of fog once again Monday morning, which could be locally dense. Folks along the coast should put their headlights on as you head out to work. Western and eastern areas may pick up an isolated shower or thunderstorm as a stalled frontal boundary over the central region may touch off some precipitation. 

Tuesday, rain showers are likely for the north, with heavier rain possible south. Western and eastern areas should stay tuned for updates. 

Showers begin to gradually clear out of the region from southwest to northeast on Wednesday. 

Thursday will be a cool one for the state, with frost / freeze potential to stay updated on over interior areas.

A warm front approaches Friday which brings the chance for showers and possibly some rumbles during the day, and if all goes well, a trailing cold front tracks through Friday night and a dry weekend appears to follow.

​Stay tuned.

 Updates this week are likely to be of the short and to the point variety as I return to the office from a business trip. You can check the Facebook page or my Twitter for what information that I can provide. As always, stay in touch with the National Weather Service for the latest official forecasts, bulletins and advisories from them. Check in with the Caribou office for northern and eastern parts of Maine, or the Gray office for western and southern areas of the state. 

Always stay weather aware!

​- Mike

With the heat and humidity going down to more early fall like temperatures over the next few days, it's time to break out the light jacket, chamois and/or sweatshirts for the folks in the north country for the weekend. After one more day of 70s statewide on Friday, daily highs appear to be in the 50s Saturday and Sunday for the mountains and much of the crown of the state. Daily highs for southern areas will be on the cool side in the 60s.  The next chance for rain comes Monday into Tuesday as the remnants of Gordon tag onto a warm front that will work in from the southwest, and it will be that front that will bring temperatures back up tp to the 70s for much of the state by Wednesday.

After all of this heat and humidity, we now return to reality for September in Maine, and that is frost.

Saturday night, patchy frost is the main concern over the mountains and north. I suspect northwest Aroostook around the Allagash and Estcourt could see temperatures drop far enough for more widespread area of frost in that area.

Sunday is a concern for a larger area of frost impacts over the north and mountains. The foothills to the coastal shorelines could see some patchy areas of frost. 

Monday morning will see the chance for patchy frost over the mountains and north once again. After we get through this stretch, the blankets may not be needed again until later in the month. 

Hurricane Florence had a tough day working through some strong wind shear. The National Hurricane Center downgraded the storm to a low end Category 1 storm with 80 mph winds.

The storm does not look nearly as strong as it did yesterday. The wind shear has weakened it considerably, and may continue to over the next two days. If it can survive the next couple of days, it will reach a favorable area for intensification. The storm is slowly heading into warmer waters, and calmer winds. 

There are still many questions on where the storm is going to end up, but time is slowly beginning to run out for preparation concerns. My questions at this point are:

1. What condition the storm is in after working through the wind shear? If it survives...
2. Position of the high near Maine and New Brunswick that is delivering the cool down this weekend. 
3. Remnants of Gordon move up into the Great Lakes and the influence that has with...
4. A strengthening blocking ridge over the Atlantic. 

Earlier this week, there was an idea presented that there was a narrow window where the trough could pick up Florence and take it out to sea. Operational models are saying no to that idea at this point.  The blocking ridge is likely to be the key piece that could guide Florence to the east coast... IF it strengthens as models suggest. 

All of this is hypothetical. Unfortunately, hypothetical is all any forecaster with integrity has to go on at this point. It may be Sunday or Monday when the storm approaches near Bermuda before a handle on the track can be achieved. By that point, the window to make preparations could be very small. 

If I were a betting man at this point, I suspect there is a 65% chance for this storm to make landfall somewhere between South Carolina and Southern New England... IF it survives into Saturday and restrengthen.

Oh, and we'll be hearing about Hermine and Isaac soon, more than likely. Any storm preparations will not be done in vain. October is coming, and we know all too well how that ended up last year. 

Are you prepared? Do you have a plan?  Check in with Hurricane Strong for more information. 

One thing that Maine may receive from this storm is ocean swells and potential for dangerous rip currents... stay tuned on that. 

Since I will be travelling to Las Vegas next week on a business trip, WAGM-TV Presque Isle morning meteorologist Anthony Macari has been gracious enough to take over for me and keep you fine folks updated on the Pine Tree Weather Facebook Page while I am away. 

Anthony is very familiar with New England weather, having grown up in Rhode Island. He received his degree in broadcast meteorology from Lyndon State in Vermont in 2016. He has been with WAGM working alongside long time veteran meteorologist Ted Shapiro since graduation. 

Anthony will be covering for me Tuesday through Friday, and will post updates when time permits for him. Please give him a warm welcome and your support while I am away! 

You can follow Anthony on his Twitter  and/or his Facebook page for more in-depth information on the weather for the north country! 

​For the latest official forecasts, bulletins and advisories, please check in with the National Weather Service in Gray for western and southern areas, or Caribou for northern and eastern parts of Maine.

Thanks as always for your support! Please consider making a donation to keep Pine Tree Weather going. Check out the donate page on how to contribute. 

Always stay weather aware! 

​- Mike 

Outside of some showers and storms possible on Thursday, the pattern is dry overall over the next few days. After another uptick of heat and humidity, below normal temperatures arrive for the weekend. Do we even remember what below normal is after the summer we've had? Have a hot beverage and a chamois shirt handy... 

While the recent round of tropical air has departed from the region, it hasn't gone very far. The ridge responsible for it will return starting Tuesday night into Wednesday, and then depart Thursday as a cold front sweeps through from the northwest. With the pattern changing, this may be the last day of the oppressive humdity (70°+ dew point) the region will see until next year. That said, the chances muggy weather (65° dew point) may not be over for a while yet. For those that can't read the fine print, those are 30° dew points (or less) at the tail end of the loop, and that is on the way for the weekend. 

Now that tropical storm season is showing signs of activity, the craziness of social media has increased along with it. I joked about lawn darts on my Twitter feed this morning when it comes to operational forecasts (think the red dart in the circle) and ensemble member forecasts (think the blue darts surrounding the red one). 

Consider this a "How To Survive Tropical Season Hysteria Guide" so you don't get caught up in the hype and pass along misinformation to the rest of your friends and followers.

Let's take a look at the European operational model run from 12z (8 AM) Sunday... 

There are several red flags here. First, this forecast is 240 hours out. Second, this only shows one model solution with no comparison to any other model or previous model runs as a basis to figure it out if legitimate or not. Like the epic snow fall model ideas over a 240 hour (European) or 384 hour (GFS) period, they all belong in the trash can. Someone or some people just love to stir the pot and create unnecessary alarm and panic because they have nothing better to do.

​This image above will be shown, shared and go viral a million or more times, but... 

This one here from the same model that ran 12 hours later that chances are real good that it would not be shared by the same people who shared the image of the storm on the doorstep of the southeast. Two totally different ideas in a difference of 12 hours. This happens a lot in potential high impact events. I see it all the time, and I hear about it from worried individuals.

So now that I've defined the red dart, I now move onto the blue darts. 

Within each operational model is a group of ensembles. Each are wired in physics to show different ideas based upon how they are programmed. The ensembles are obviously scattered all over the place as this European spaghettios idea indicates. Had all 51 ensemble members been clustered along the southeast coast, then there would be some discussion. That idea only happens within 6 to 24 hours out, and not 240 hours out. As you can see, the ensembles are clearly scattered which immediately puts the operational idea in a file for future reference, which in most cases gets deleted after the storm has passed two weeks later. 

Now I will turn the spaghettios into spaghetti...

Thinking back to the operational model run that showed doomsday along the southeast coast, the individual members have a vast array of ideas. The point here is there is more to the story than just one single operational red dart model solution... there are 51 ensemble blue dart solutions that go along with it. 

It's always best to stick to 5-day outlooks posted by the National Hurricane Center or other weather sources that have any sort of respect and integrity to the public. The rest is just purely hype and click bait.

Computer generated forecast models have made significant progress in weather forecasting. I've noticed it in the past seven years I have been doing this. Each model has it's strength and weaknesses, hence why it takes human forecasters to create a forecast. Even then, that isn't a guarantee as Mother Nature always gets the final word, and the last laugh. Atmospheric scientists have not broke the code on weather forecasting, which is why it will always be ideas and potential. 

Forecasting is a truly humbling venture, and the best one could ever hope for is a tie with Mother Nature. There is no winning. 

Thursday is the only day to be concerned for any amount of rain or storms through the period. Northern areas and some pockets of protected valleys in the western mountains may see their first frost if not Saturday morning, by Sunday morning. Meteorological fall is showing signs of arrival here in Maine. 

To wrap all the information contained in this post in a neat package, two things are apparent in this European ensemble prediction for rain over the next couple of weeks. For one, rainfall appears to be below normal, which is the obvious one. The second is the ensemble mean keeps all the tropical systems well away from the region.

This pattern is eerily similar to that in the spring, with west to east zonal storm pattern which are moisture starved with little moisture to offer. Given the power keg the tropics are right now, I wouldn't necessarily carve this idea into stone. All it takes is one storm that is tropical in nature to change this on short notice. 

For those dealing with the ongoing drought, I understand this is not the news you want to see. I keep looking for clues of a more of a wet pattern. It may be another couple of weeks before that happens. For now, conserve your groundwater supplies, and hang in there. 

Thanks as always for your support! Please consider making a donation to keep Pine Tree Weather going. Check out the donate page on how to contribute. 

For the latest official forecasts, bulletins and advisories, please check in with the National Weather Service in Gray for western and southern areas, or Caribou for northern and eastern parts of Maine.

Always stay weather aware! 

- Mike