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Before I begin, I would like to thank my website followers for sticking with me over the past couple of months. Due to technical issues with the website and training of interns, the site was left idle for a while. Since I am the only one who can post items on the site, this has also caused challenges. The internship program continues through early August. After that, the plan is for this site to resume regular updates. I will be away through Sunday, with updates resuming here on Monday. My interns will be updating on Facebook. Severe storm potential Sunday After a pleasant "Maine summer" Saturday with near-seasonal temperatures and comfortable humidity, high pressure associated with that moves offshore as a cold front approaches from the northwest. Dew points climb back up into the mid-to-upper 60s on Sunday. Given the sharp nature of the front, steep temperature lapse rates are expected, along with ample convective available potential energy (CAPE), which could fuel a few supercells that could produce severe storms.  Given the forecast trajectory of the frontal boundary out of the west, if it validates, it sets up the coastal plain as the central area of concern Sunday afternoon. The sea breeze that provides stable air along the shorelines may be shut off, and if so, that brings the potential for strong to severe storms to impact the coast. With the steep lapse rates experienced recently with the storms earlier in the week, straight-line wind damage is the likely threat, along with the potential for large hail.  With the southwest flow ahead of the front pushing dew points into the muggy to sticky level, the juicy atmosphere sets up the risk of heavy downpours with localized flash flood potential. Given the activity of the busy summer with events and tourists, this may be problematic for the I-95, I-295, and Route 1 corridors, as well as the more populated areas. Precipitable water values (moisture in the air column) could reach 1¾-2" ahead of the cold front Sunday afternoon. With a convective trigger (the sun) that generates potential storms with tropical downpours, which can make it hazardous in certain areas.  Sunday 1 AM to Monday 2 AM: Showers are possible over the north in the wee hours of Sunday as the warm front moves in. The idea is for two more waves to pass through the region Sunday afternoon. Whether or not the severe storm concerns impact the shorelines will have much to do with cloud debris from the outflow wave that moves through late morning to early afternoon. If cloud cover persists, it may mitigate the risk of severe storms as the primary wave passes through in the afternoon. There may be enough instability aloft to generate intense storms even in the case of lingering low-level clouds near the surface. It will be a wait-and-see game as to what happens. Per usual, where the sun comes out after the midday wave is where the thunder guns may come out in the afternoon. It will be important to stay aware and be prepared for strong-to-severe storms to occur and take appropriate action. The PTW Weather Wall Updates 24/7 Your financial contributions support the future of PTW |
Mike Haggett
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