With the departing frontal boundary quickly moving to the east, the sky will clear out during the day Tuesday bringing a pleasant day overall. It may be a bit breezy in the higher elevations as high pressure moves in, otherwise wind appears light for the state. High pressure settles over the region Tuesday night and thus give us a chilly start to Wednesday. High pressure then moves east ahead of the storm on the way to impact Thursday. The weekend appears mainly dry for now. 

Cover the mums up Tuesday night as temperatures appear to flirt with freezing in most locations by the time the sunrises Wednesday morning. This appears to be our coolest night until this weekend when high pressure returns Saturday into Sunday.

Wednesday remains mainly dry for the state. Southern areas may get a light shower or sprinkle late Wednesday afternoon, but the main event will not arrive until overnight into Thursday morning. The morning commute could be rough one with heavy rain and gusty wind, causing reduced visibility and ponding on roadways. 

Gale watches have been posted for the coast. Seas of 7-12 feet are expected Thursday morning. If there is a high tide to be concerned with, it would be 2 PM Thursday afternoon, with splash-over the main concern in the usual areas. 

This is best estimate I can see at this point for potential rainfall. Once the storm phases together and pressure drops rapidly, rain will fall very heavy at times Thursday morning before tapering to scattered showers Thursday afternoon. While there is little concern for river flooding, a few brooks and streams may rise quickly in areas of heavy downpours. With the wind stripping leaves, clogging of storm drains may cause localized street flooding, along with slick roads from accumulating leaves are the main concerns. 

My main concern for the strongest wind gusts comes in areas of heavy rain where downdraft wind may occur. This may cause some spotty power outages in areas and cause flying debris. As the storm pulls away, the wind will slowly diminish Thursday night into Friday. 

Stay tuned for more updates!
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► ► For the latest official forecasts, bulletins and advisories, please check in with the National Weather Service in Gray for western and southern areas, or Caribou for northern and eastern parts of Maine.

► ► DONATION DRIVE UPDATE - $920 shortfall for the year ahead! You can help keep Pine Tree Weather going with a donation of any amount now through VENMO @PineTreeWeather, a monthly donation on Patreon or messaging me on Facebook or Twitter to send a check in the mail. Thank you for your support!

For more information from me, please check the Pine Tree Weather Facebook page as well as my Twitter feed. 

Always stay weather aware!

​- Mike

A weak cold front passes through the region Monday night. High pressure brings sun to the region Tuesday. Low pressure forms off the Mid-Atlantic coast and moves northeast Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing heavy rain and wind through early Friday. High pressure returns for the weekend.

After a mainly cloudy day with areas of fog to start Monday, a frontal boundary passes through the region Monday night and brings some light shower activity along with it. Showers end almost as quickly as they begin, and clear the area before daylight Tuesday morning.

I can't rule out a chance for a sprinkle for southern areas, but any chance for measurable rainfall is over the northern two-thirds of the state, and will be light at best.

A textbook NorEaster appears to be in the offing for the region Wednesday night through Thursday. The classic negative tilt of upper level energy meets up with a southern stream of moisture. The two parts come together off the MidAtlantic coast, and a strong ocean storm rapidly develops. 

There is still some wiggle room on potential track of the storm, but guidance has been consistent on the idea of a coastal hugger since late last week. It's all a timing game with where and when the negatively tilted upper trough reaches the MidAtlantic coast and how rapidly the coastal low develops. 

Guidance has also been consistent with the idea of 1-2" of rain potential. Given the dynamics of a rapid developing storm with a moisture hose tapped in from the tropical south, this idea is reasonable. The only thing which could occur is that the storm intensifies so quickly that dry slotting could occur, and as a result bring lesser amounts of rainfall. 

This has the potential for being a leaf stripping storm. Given the fact there is still a fair amount of trees with leaf coverage along the coast, concerns for at least some spotty power outages are possible. 

With the full moon phasing out and low levels of astronomical impacts, that takes a bit of an edge off shoreline flooding. Regardless, it is an area of concern given the potential for rapid storm development and falling barometric pressure.  The finer details on timing and impacts will be ironed out in coming updates.

Stay tuned.

► ► For the latest official forecasts, bulletins and advisories, please check in with the National Weather Service in Gray for western and southern areas, or Caribou for northern and eastern parts of Maine.

► ► DONATION DRIVE UPDATE - $920 shortfall for the year ahead! You can help keep Pine Tree Weather going with a donation of any amount now through VENMO @PineTreeWeather, a monthly donation on Patreon or messaging me on Facebook or Twitter to send a check in the mail. Thank you for your support!

For more information from me, please check the Pine Tree Weather Facebook page as well as my Twitter feed. 

Always stay weather aware!

​- Mike

​The storm that has lurked offshore of southern New England since Wednesday will slowly begin to move eastward Friday and clear the region Saturday afternoon. A weak cold front slides through the state Saturday night. Sunday is the pick of the weekend with sun and warmer temperatures.

The coastal plain runs the risk for showers Friday. Showers expand over the rest of the state Friday night. By Saturday morning, western and southern areas dry out. It will be Saturday evening by the time the bulk of shower activity leaves eastern and northern areas. The western mountains may pick up a shower or two overnight Saturday into early Sunday from the weak cold front.

A gusty wind along the coast continue in the 15-25 mph range, with 30+ mph possible along the shorelines. As the storm moves east,  the wind slowly diminishes, settling down by Saturday evening. 

High surf and rip current advisories remain in effect until 6 PM Friday for the southwest coast, 6 AM Saturday for DownEast areas.  A coastal flood statement has been issued for the shorelines south of Portland for splash-over and minor beach erosion through 1 PM Friday.

The ocean waves slowly recede Friday night and Saturday, then settles by Sunday morning. 

Temperatures for Friday will run mainly in the mid to upper 50s statewide with a few places reaching 60. Overnight lows into Saturday morning will mainly be in the 40s, with 30s possible in the mountains up into the Allagash. Saturday will be a chilly one, with 40s and 50s the high point statewide. Sunday starts off in the 40s, with 50s the high for the mountains, north and DownEast and 60s for southwestern areas. ​

After a couple of mainly dry days to start the week, the northern jet stream sinks and the southern jet stream rises and as the two come together, a strong storm is likely to develop. The question at this point is where the phasing of the two streams occurs. At the very least, there is a reason to believe that the area will get some rain and at least a breeze out of this Wednesday into Thursday. With the energy associated with the two streams coming close to the proximity of Maine, this is definitely a storm to stay updated on as it could develop into a potent one. 

Stay tuned for updates!

I am going to pause for a bit after this six day stretch and get caught up on some rest and spend time with the family. I may drop a quick update in on Facebook or here, if warranted.

I encourage you to explore the website with all of the new pages and features that I have added over the past week. 

► ► For the latest official forecasts, bulletins and advisories, please check in with the National Weather Service in Gray for western and southern areas, or Caribou for northern and eastern parts of Maine.

► ► DONATION DRIVE UPDATE - $920 shortfall for the year ahead! You can help keep Pine Tree Weather going with a donation of any amount now through VENMO @PineTreeWeather, a monthly donation on Patreon or messaging me on Facebook or Twitter to send a check in the mail. Thank you for your support!

For more information from me, please check the Pine Tree Weather Facebook page as well as my Twitter feed. 

Always stay weather aware!

​- Mike

The ocean storm to the southeast of New England will retrograde westward and intensify on Thursday.  Waves from the storm will begin to impact the Maine coast today. Waves in the 5 - 8 foot range are likely to cause dangerous rip currents, minor beach erosion and splash-over around high tide near the 10 AM and PM hours Thursday.  

While it is always impressive to view wave action, it's important to respect the ocean and watch from a safe distance. 

As the storm intensifies, the northeast wind will pick up along the shorelines. The higher gusts in the 20-30+ mph range will be along the York County coast through the day and into the evening. The wind gusts reduce slightly on Friday as the storm meanders to the east.

The bulk of the rain stays over southern New England. York County may get a shower or two if the dry air doesn't eat it up before making landfall. This pattern repeats on Friday.

Eastern areas likely the warmest in the state with high temperatures around 60°, with the rest of the state in the mid to upper 50s.

Folks in the north will want to cover the mums and any other plants of importance as frost is likely by morning. 

Eastern areas are likely the warmest again on Friday with temperatures topping out around 60°.

With an approaching frontal boundary to the west bringing clouds to the region Friday night, overnight lows appear to be in the 40s, although protected valleys may see some 30s. 

Some shower activity is expected Saturday as the front passes through and taps into moisture from the ocean storm. The front and the storm will depart the region Saturday afternoon. 

Sunday is the pick of the weekend with sunshine and 50s and 60s for high temperatures.
​
► ► For the latest official forecasts, bulletins and advisories, please check in with the National Weather Service in Gray for western and southern areas, or Caribou for northern and eastern parts of Maine.

► ► DONATION DRIVE UPDATE - $1020 shortfall for the year ahead! You can help keep Pine Tree Weather going with a donation of any amount now through VENMO @PineTreeWeather, a monthly donation on Patreon or messaging me on Facebook or Twitter to send a check in the mail. Thank you for your support!

For more information from me, please check the Pine Tree Weather Facebook page as well as my Twitter feed. 

Always stay weather aware!

​- Mike

If you are on a PC, look up at the top of the page. If you are on a mobile device, click the menu at the top left corner. You will see a bunch of new pages that I have added to bring you more information than what is covered here in my discussions for your benefit. I still have work to do, but I am making progress and will continue to tweak and add in the coming days.  I hope you will find the new features helpful, and would appreciate any comments on the new additions. 

High pressure over  eastern Canada provides blocking which will keep the worst of the storm to our south. The storm stays to the south - southeast of benchmark 40° N / 70° W  enough to keep the shorelines of Maine on the fringe, and bring some needed rain to southern areas of the state. 

For my followers in southern New England, this is likely to bring trouble to your region with flooding, strong wind that will lead to power outages, travel impacts, and battering waves for the coastline. A  meticulously detailed discussion posted by NWS Norton/Boston is worth your time to read.  

The heavier seas of 20-25' will hammer the southern New England coast Thursday before slowly subsiding as the storm weakens and meanders to the east. Seas are expected to reach the 12-15' range along the Maine shoreline, which may be enough to cause splash-over in the usual locations. To keep tabs on what is happening with the ocean, check out the new Marine page for updates as well as direct links to NOAA's forecasts. 

Since coastal Maine is on the fringe of the storm, a tight gradient is setting up. A few miles may make the difference on amounts. Most of the rainfall ends for southern and western areas Saturday, with showers ending early Sunday for eastern areas as it appears for now. 

As the storm nudges northward, it will run up against dry high pressure and keep the bulk of the rain to the south. Some light shower activity is possible for the southwest shorelines and southern areas through the day, with little accumulation. 

A northeast breeze will pick up along the shorelines and could be gusty at times along the immediate shorelines. As the storm meanders to the south, wind speeds increase then decrease Wednesday as it changes position. 

Temperatures will be right around season normals much of the state. With the storm bringing clouds and a threat for light rain, southern areas appear to run a bit below normal.

Where there is a clear sky and no wind, there is a chance for frost, which makes far northern areas likely for that to occur Thursday morning. 

As the ocean storm nudges north again on Thursday, southern areas are only expected to top out in the 50s to near 60. Showers are expected once again for coastal and southern areas through the day. 

Once again, patchy frost may impact far interior areas Friday morning.

​► ► For the latest official forecasts, bulletins and advisories, please check in with the National Weather Service in Gray for western and southern areas, or Caribou for northern and eastern parts of Maine.

► ► DONATION DRIVE UPDATE - $1020 shortfall for the year ahead! You can help keep Pine Tree Weather going with a donation of any amount now through VENMO @PineTreeWeather, a monthly donation on Patreon or messaging me on Facebook or Twitter to send a check in the mail. Thank you for your support!

For more information from me, please check the Pine Tree Weather Facebook page as well as my Twitter feed. 

Always stay weather aware!

​- Mike