After Tuesday's storm exits the region, most areas take a break for couple of days before the next storm arrives to wrap up the week. A cold November continues with below average temperatures, but the record books won't be rewritten for daily values as it appears for now. 

I've mentioned the "warm nose" quite a bit over the last couple of days due to the mixed bag of precipitation the region is dealing with. This graphic above from the Mount Washington Observatory shows that idea in living color. It's cold enough for snow on top of the mountain, but the temperature profiles at lower levels warm above freezing, before cooling off closer to the bottom of the mountain. This vertical profile shows the likelihood freezing rain or sleet for the valley, pending on the velocity of the falling parcel. For those in western areas, this is a cool website to watch in events such as this to get a better idea what is going on in your area. Expect that entire list of vertical profiles to fall below 32° as cold air works in, and turns all mixed precipitation to snow. 

The fruit salad on the radar changes to blue indicating snow as this wave passes southwest to northeast during the day. Precipitation ends over southern areas by mid-afternoon, and the rest of the state by early this evening.

The snow map below remains on track with forecast amounts through Tuesday evening. 

Yet another wave works into the region for Wednesday. This is much weaker than two which were dealt with on Monday and Tuesday, but has just enough energy to bring some snow shower activity. Best chance for snow shower activity will be for western and southern areas. At this point, I am not expecting a whole lot, but it may be enough to cover the roads and create a few slick spots. While the idea presented here is more over New Hampshire and Vermont for the steadier snow showers, this is a recent change as this idea was further east with more impact for western and southern areas. These inversions have a mind of their own as demonstrated over the years. I will keep track of this during the day and update on Facebook Tuesday afternoon.

After a chilly, breezy day on Thursday, warm air tries to work in from the southwest ahead of a cold front attached to low pressure cutting across southern Quebec. I wouldn't focus so much on precipitation type the loop is generating, because that will likely change. A safe bet is for another mixed bag of precipitation Friday for interior areas that will change to snow before ending early Saturday.

Later in the weekend, and ocean storm fires up and moves northeast near the 40°N / 70°W benchmark point. Any time that idea is pitched, it deserves to be watched. 

I'll fine tune the details on all of this as the rest of the week unfolds.

► ► For the latest official forecasts, bulletins and advisories, please check in with the National Weather Service in Gray for western and southern areas, or Caribou for northern and eastern parts of Maine.

​► ► DONATION DRIVE UPDATE - $640 shortfall for the year ahead! You can help keep Pine Tree Weather going with a donation of any amount now through VENMO @PineTreeWeather, a monthly donation on Patreon or messaging me on Facebook or Twitter to send a check in the mail. Thank you for your support!

For more information from me, please check the Pine Tree Weather Facebook page as well as my Twitter feed. 

Always stay weather aware!

​- Mike

While precipitation may start a bit later than originally forecast, the threat for freezing rain and sleet remains the main concern for Monday. Once the first low departs Monday night, a second low tracks in which will deliver snow to the interior areas of the state Tuesday. For those commuting around the region, it's important to remain guarded for changing road conditions.

Interior areas will see the most snow, with the rooftop of the state likely to get the higher amounts. Higher elevations in the western mountains over to the central highlands and the Baxter State Park region end up in the 3-7" range. South of that area, southwest coastal areas may see some flakes, with the best chance of any accumulating snow occuring away from the shoreline, and it appears nominal at that. 

WInter Weather Advisories are posted for the concern for ice rather than snow across the coastal plain on up into the foothills and southern Aroostook. If you read my post here Sunday evening, I discussed cold air damming and how that could throw a wrench into the forecast, and it still is. With single digits above and below zero to start off Monday in the north, along with three days of record cold, rest assured that if precipitation makes the surface in liquid form, it will freeze and could do so on contact. 

I do not expect any widespread power outage problems from ice accretion. I do expect slick roads, sidewalks, paths and parking lots. I do expect enough rain or drizzle to freeze to windshields for a good portion of the region.

Timing shows impacts for the coastal areas Monday morning, pushing northwest and reaching the western mountains in the afternoon, and northern areas by evening. How long the icing goes on depends fully on ​how long it takes for warm air to overtake the cold at the surface, and that may take awhile, if it happens at all. I suspect that not only warm air will intrude at the upper level, cold air may sneak in also, which if that is the case, that is where sleet will be a factor. 

After the first low begins to exit the region Tuesday morning, a secondary low will come through on its heels. There may be a bit of a lull over the interior in between the two lows, but it won't last long, Precipitation ends from southwest to northeast Tuesday afternoon into early evening, with the last of the snow departing northern areas between 6-8 PM. 

Remember to TAKE 5° OFF YOUR VEHICLE THERMOMETER to get a better read on what the surface temperature may be. This is one of those annoying storms where precipitation is just enough to cause minor issues, but so long as it is driven with the conditions, this is not a big deal. Allow for extra time, expect rapidly changing road conditions, and expect cold air to do its thing here and be stubborn.

​► ► For the latest official forecasts, bulletins and advisories, please check in with the National Weather Service in Gray for western and southern areas, or Caribou for northern and eastern parts of Maine.

​► ► DONATION DRIVE UPDATE - $640 shortfall for the year ahead! You can help keep Pine Tree Weather going with a donation of any amount now through VENMO @PineTreeWeather, a monthly donation on Patreon or messaging me on Facebook or Twitter to send a check in the mail. Thank you for your support!

For more information from me, please check the Pine Tree Weather Facebook page as well as my Twitter feed. 

Always stay weather aware!

​- Mike

The update is going to be a short and quick one due to family activity, but there are a few things to keep in mind with this system working into the region early Monday through the day.  First is the cold. I do not care what the garbage weather phone apps say. I do not buy what some models are selling. The reason being is wind direction. A north-northeast wind does an excellent job holding in cold air, which is known as cold air damming.

A couple years back we had a similar set up where temperatures were around 0° in northern areas, Models were moving warm air in along the coast like butter melting on toast in that situation, and the forecast was abruptly changed in hurry. I am going to get out ahead of this one right off, and call the models bluff. I do not buy that cold surface air will go away without a fight. As noted by one of my astute Twitter followers Sunday morning, Mount Washington was warmer than any area below the summit. That will be the case for Monday. Warm air will override the cold aloft. This is where sleet and freezing rain become the more dominant precipitation type. Sleet is more likely over interior areas, and freezing rain will be a concern away from the shorelines as warm air intrudes even lower in the atmosphere. Most areas statewide have a chance for at least glaze ice out of this. The southwest coast could see icy conditions to start off Monday as low level convergence comes into play.

I have a web page set up specifically on this site to cover for me when I get into situations such as today which gives you snow and ice outlooks piped in from the local National Weather Service offices and Weather Prediction Center. You can click on that link highlighted to get you there.

This is presented to give you a rough idea on timing. We'll have the initial wave on Monday, followed by a trailing secondary low which will slide through on Tuesday. DO NOT LET THE COLORS FOOL YOU. What precipitation depiction the suggested radar may present may be totally different once it makes landfall. What you need to plan for is SLICK driving conditions, sidewalks, and parking lots. Remember to TAKE 5° OFF YOUR VEHICLE THERMOMETER. With the recent cold, the surface is likely to be at least that much colder than the thermometer reads. 

​Don't get fooled by cold air damming. Travel safe whether by legs or by wheels. 

► ► For the latest official forecasts, bulletins and advisories, please check in with the National Weather Service in Gray for western and southern areas, or Caribou for northern and eastern parts of Maine.

Another early winter event, another mixed bag of precipitation on the way to start the work week. It would be wise to not only keep the firewood stocked for easy retrieval, but also salt and sand.  Ice from freezing rain could stretch deep into northern and western areas before turning to snow. Cold air damming will tell the tale how long freezing rain continues for the western foothills over to southern Aroostook down to interior areas of the coastal plain. For the coastal region, the thermometer will need to be monitored closely. Some light ice is possible away from the shorelines before the changeover to rain. Add it all up, it will be a messy couple of days where driving could be tricky for a good portion of interior areas. 

Low pressure off the southeast coast of the country moves northeast. The storm collides with cold air left behind from the arctic high bringing us the weekend cold as it heads into the Canadian Maritimes. It will drag down cold air behind it, turning any freezing rain or sleet to snow as the storm heads into Newfoundland Tuesday. 

The western mountains on up into Aroostook have the best chance for a handful of inches of snow from this system, with lesser amounts to the south and east. This all is dependent on the timing of the changeover. The more freezing rain and sleet, the less snow. For the ski hills, the mixed bag could also affect totals in the idea presented here. 

I will fine tune the timing and precipitation types and amounts in my next update planned for Sunday afternoon. 

► ► For the latest official forecasts, bulletins and advisories, please check in with the National Weather Service in Gray for western and southern areas, or Caribou for northern and eastern parts of Maine.

​► ► DONATION DRIVE UPDATE - $720 shortfall for the year ahead! You can help keep Pine Tree Weather going with a donation of any amount now through VENMO @PineTreeWeather, a monthly donation on Patreon or messaging me on Facebook or Twitter to send a check in the mail. Thank you for your support!

For more information from me, please check the Pine Tree Weather Facebook page as well as my Twitter feed. 

Always stay weather aware!

​- Mike

While some areas may have very little to no snow on the ground, there is a good chance there is ice from overnight freezing drizzle. Expect hazardous conditions walking and driving until surfaces are properly treated! Allow for plenty of extra time to get to where you are going, and TAKE IT SLOW!

The frontal boundary and low pressure associated with it moves eastward Tuesday. Snow and ice ends from west to east during the day, with the steadier snow ending over DownEast areas Tuesday evening. As the low intensifies in the Canadian Maritimes, it will kick up snow showers over the north Tuesday night.  An arctic front works into the region on Wednesday, and appears to bring upslope snow showers to the ski hills that could continue into Thursday.

West-northwest wind picks up behind the departing front which could bring gusts in the 30+ mph range Tuesday night into Wednesday. It will bring bitter cold wind chill to the entire region, with values below zero over a good portion of the region Wednesday morning. As the wind begins to settle, it won't feel as cold, but single digits and teens will generally be the rule through Thursday morning. 

It's time for the hats, mittens, and parkas! 

High pressure works in behind the departing front for Wednesday, then moves offshore Thursday. A weak disturbance drags up moisture from the Atlantic late Thursday and brings the chance for some light snow to northern and eastern areas overnight into Friday morning. As that departs, a reinforcing arctic front works into the region to start the weekend, which may bring more upslope snow showers to the mountains Friday night into early Saturday. 

I am keeping tabs on a ocean storm that for now stays offshore on Monday. Time will tell if it stays that way.

​► ► For the latest official forecasts, bulletins and advisories, please check in with the National Weather Service in Gray for western and southern areas, or Caribou for northern and eastern parts of Maine.