When I first began discussing this storm on Wednesday, I stressed that these cut off upper level lows are tricky to forecast, and that models were going to have hard time handling it. Both have proven correct with this storm.  As we approach the beginning of the event, it may not quite be done yet.

This is a busy chart sequence looking at upper level energy.  First thing to focus on the energy over the Great Lakes spinning eastward, which is part of a trough. The ridge to the north begins to weaken, and allows the upper level low to nudge in the same direction. If you look to the west over Montana and North Dakota at the beginning of the loop there is another piece of energy. This is the kicker. If the kicker came earlier, this may have been a snowier affair. This will make it snowier for eastern Quebec and Labrador, but for Maine it's a sloppy mess. 

As far as timing goes, the storm is moving a bit quicker. It will be all but over for western and southern areas by daybreak, and by around noon for northern and eastern areas. The only other slight change has been the window of very heavy precipitation has narrowed down to a three hour window.  Chances are good you will know when it begins, and know when it ends in your area.

If you are travelling overnight in the interior areas, watch the vehicle thermometer, and take 5° off to consider actual surface temperatures. For coastal areas, expect heavy downpours to cause standing water with potential hydroplaning, reduced visibility from the rain, and any fog that may form. 

This could be bust on snow all together, so I will be right upfront about that. I am concerned for northern areas that ice from freezing rain may be more than light.  Since the upper low  appears to flatten out, I see snow showers for the mountains, but I can't see anything more than a fluffy inch out of it as the backside rolls through on Monday.

For coastal areas, expect snowmelt to cause some urban street flooding. The heavy rain could agitate ice covered tributaries, which may cause ice jams and flood roads. If you come across a flooded roadway TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN. 

We're about a week away from our next storm. Will it be a snowy one or will it turn into something like this? Stay tuned. 

► ► For the latest official forecasts, bulletins and advisories, please check in with the National Weather Service in Gray for western and southern areas, or Caribou for northern and eastern parts of Maine.

​► ► Due to a revised budget there is a $125 shortfall for the year ahead! You can help keep Pine Tree Weather going with a donation of ANY amount now through VENMO @PineTreeWeather, a monthly donation on Patreon or messaging me on Facebook or Twitter to send a check in the mail. Thank you for your support!

For more information from me, please check the Pine Tree Weather Facebook page as well as my Twitter feed. 

Always stay weather aware!

​- Mike

High pressure has slid offshore, and and onshore flow has developed. This could bring pockets of freezing drizzle to the region Friday night into Saturday. Watch your thermometers. Remember, if you using your car thermometer as a gauge, deduct 5° to better gauge surface temperatures. Watch out for icy spots! 

No real changes in timing of the event. Steadier precipitation arrives Saturday night and briskly moves north. Be aware of some gusty winds that accompany it. For southern and western areas, this appears to be over, or ending soon after daylight Sunday. For northern and eastern areas, it will be Sunday afternoon. Snow showers kick up for the mountains, Moosehead and Allagash by Sunday evening, and are likely to continue until the upper low exits the area Monday evening.

Given the tropical moisture associated with this storm, this will likely be a heavy, wet slop for interior areas. Backside snow showers will be fluffier as drier air works in behind the surface low.  Pockets of freezing drizzle and rain are possible away from the coast and in protected valleys. At this point, I do not expect any accretion for concern. 

NOTE: Given the nature of the cut-off upper low, models are still all over the place on precipitation types and amounts.  There is bust potential here for snow, so be aware of that. As I said this morning, 2-4" is a fair bet for the ski hills on the back side of this, and that idea remains on track. 

I get asked, "Where is the cold?" It's been in Alaska for much of January. After a record temperature setting summer there, the region has been the coldest location this winter in the northern hemisphere. I've been waiting for the bitter cold balloon that has meandered around there all month to pop, and it appears that is going to happen. A strong ridge over Siberia in conjunction with another over the eastern Pacific appears to jar it loose. With a trough working across the southwest this week, it may tap into that some of the Alaskan cold, and set up the east coast for a potential snow event next weekend. 

Stay tuned. 

​► ► For the latest official forecasts, bulletins and advisories, please check in with the National Weather Service in Gray for western and southern areas, or Caribou for northern and eastern parts of Maine.

​► ► $125 shortfall for the year ahead! You can help keep Pine Tree Weather going with a donation of ANY amount now through VENMO @PineTreeWeather, a monthly donation on Patreon or messaging me on Facebook or Twitter to send a check in the mail. Thank you for your support!

For more information from me, please check the Pine Tree Weather Facebook page as well as my Twitter feed. 

Always stay weather aware!

​- Mike

A quick update here Friday morning with fine tuning starting Friday afternoon. If you are following on Facebook PLEASE make sure you have page notifications turned ON to get the most recent updates.

The trend continues to get warmer. Confidence is high that the coastal plain will be mainly rain, and interior areas will get all four precipitation food groups (snow, sleet, freezing rain, rain) as the upper low drags a warm front with tropical moisture along with it.

In regards to IMPACTS, as I mentioned here Thursday afternoon, coastal plain areas need to be concerned about melting. Folks with sensitive basements need to be aware of potential flooding there. Street flooding is possible in areas where storm drains are blocked. Localized flooding of brooks and streams are possible. Where there is ice jams, especially the Kennebec River in Augusta / Hallowell, I am concerned for potential flooding there. Most areas in the green shaded area can expect around 1" of rain out of this.

For interior areas, slick travel is possible Saturday night until early Sunday for western areas. For northern areas, conditions go downhill early Sunday and continue until Sunday afternoon. 

For most areas, this is a quick hitter. For ski country, I don't expect a major impact on the snow pack. What little is lost is likely to be gained back in snow showers on the backside of the upper low that fire up Sunday night and last through Monday. The mountains and north may pick up 2-4" out of that before it ends Monday night. 

The plan is to have another update on this Friday afternoon.

​► ► For the latest official forecasts, bulletins and advisories, please check in with the National Weather Service in Gray for western and southern areas, or Caribou for northern and eastern parts of Maine.

I've been banging my head against the wall all afternoon to try to come up with a graphic to best explain this one without causing confusion. The scenario is this: A cut off upper level low is expected to cross through the area. As I said in a previous post, these cut off upper level lows have a mind of their own, and are tricky to forecast. Like cold air, these upper lows will do what they want, so be aware of that, especially in interior areas.

This system is expected to bring precipitation to the area, beginning late Saturday afternoon over southern and western areas and will overspread the state Saturday night into Sunday morning.

Attached to the upper low is a surge of tropical moisture. While coastal areas can keep the shovels idle, there is a good chance for ~1" of rain from this. With areas that have snow, this will cause melting, and with rock solid ground, it may dampen some sensitive basements. Most of the heavy rain (and precipitation) is expected to work through the area late Saturday through around 9 AM Sunday. 

With the surge of tropical moisture comes warmer temperatures. This sets up potential mixing for interior areas. Thankfully there is no deep cold around, but cold air will do what it decides and could hover in the upper 20s to around 32° over the western foothills on up through the central highlands. There could be pockets of freezing rain and sleet, with rain in areas closer to the coast and snow for areas closer to the mountains and north. 

Putting all these ingredients on the surface map, it shows a track that splits the snow and mix from the rain. I can say at this point that this is NOT the final answer. I suspect there will be adjustments made. 

My confidence is low on this because I am not sure if the warming trend has completed as of yet. 

Stay tuned. 

► ► For the latest official forecasts, bulletins and advisories, please check in with the National Weather Service in Gray for western and southern areas, or Caribou for northern and eastern parts of Maine.

For those who did not catch my Facebook post on Tuesday, I made it known that I have started my online forecast certification course through the Penn State World Campus program. I am only one lesson into it, and I absolutely love it. I am glad it has been quiet this week to allow me to get set up and going with that. The course is rather rigorous, which is exactly what I am looking for. Outside of some tutelage of a few broadcast meteorologists and private sector folks, I have self taught myself over the past 8 years. Knowing that I needed to "connect-the-dots" on certain things, I decided in the fall that now is the right time to for me to do it. This will take four semesters for me to complete, which I plan on working on it straight through May of 2021.

This may cut into some of what I do here pending on how life evolves, but it may not be noticable. The fun part for me is I can continue to take my new found knowledge and pass it along in my forecasting and discussions immediately. This here is my working lab project.

This is not a cheap investment I am making here. While my bills are almost paid for 2020, I could still use some financial assistance above and beyond my $3000 operating budget. Any help from you would be sincerely appreciated. 

This is the temperature outlook for Bangor as we head into the late part of January. This is typically our coldest point of the year. While we've had a couple shots of bitter cold weather, this month has been mild for much of the region, and that trend will continue. 

Looking under the hood of climatological data, our days have run a bit above normal, but nothing too crazy. Most parts of Maine are running within a handful of degrees above normal for high temperatures. At the time of this post, Caribou's daily high is 24° versus the average of 19.9°. 

Where it is most noticeable is our nights. Caribou is warmer than average by almost 6°. Bangor and Augusta are a shade over 5°. Portland is running just over 9° above average.

The month-to-date mean average temperatures look this way:

Caribou 15.8° 9th warmest (10.5° normal) 
Bangor  22.2° 15th warmest (18.1° normal)
Augusta 24.1° 10th warmest (19.9° normal)
Portland 28.7° 5th warmest (22° normal)

If you aren't burning as much wood or oil this year, this is likely why. 

I've been keeping tabs on this since the first of the week, and the most recent trend is a coastal hugger scenario. The track at this point appears north of benchmark 40° N / 70° W (X), which sets up the chance for a mix for the coastline. This system appears to have a tropical hose attached to it, so it could have plenty of moisture to work with. What could throw a wrench into the outcome is this does not appear to be a vertically stacked storm, meaning the surface low and areas of low pressure in the atmosphere do not line up. If that remains the case, it could be a tricky one to figure out precipitation type and amounts. 

Stay tuned for more on this.