A spicy clipper on the way to Maine Clipper systems are always an interesting weather phenomenon. While most bring simple rain or snow showers pending on atmospheric temperature, now and then, one can deliver a hard slap to the face, and it appears that will be the case here. The cold air is locked in aloft, as noted by the 5:30 AM reading of 4° on top of Mount Washington. The way modeling portrays this system, the state's northern half is in for a decent hit. A winter storm watch is posted for The County and Great North Woods for snow and strong winds. As I rarely trust guidance on how it handles cold air, I don’t trust what I see regarding how it handles energy with sharp troughs. I sense there could be overperformance here. Track and development is key to the outcome Thursday 1 AM (06z) to Friday 7 AM (12z)— A look at the individual members of the European ensembles from the Monday overnight suite indicates where I have concerns about the element of surprise with this event. The storm appears to be in the early stages of development the energy associated with the clipper runs up against strong ridging over the Atlantic. This is a gasoline-awaiting-a-match scenario with the system going through rapid intensification as it swings through the state and bottoms out over the Gulf of St. Lawrence by Friday morning. With the driver of the system located in northwestern Canada, the model discrepancies come into play as the area is poorly covered by radiosonde (weather balloon) data. Looking at all of the ideas at my disposal, there are discrepancies with each. An earlier development changes the ballgame for the western half of the state including the south coast. A later organization limits the outcome for the same area. By Tuesday evening, a better read should come to fine tune the forecast.  Wednesday 1 PM (18z) to Friday 7 AM (12z) – I mentioned in Monday’s post about the potential for a secondary coastal low that could throw a wrench into this, and I am not dismissing that idea. The energy transfer between the parent low and a new low to form above our heads on Thursday could spin off a weak sidearm knuckleballer over the Gulf of Maine, bringing additional precipitation as it feeds off the ocean's warmth. The consensus idea of a sub-980mb storm developing late Thursday into early Friday brings the wind into play. It’s these little things that could turn an annoying storm into something more substantial, especially when dynamic cooling clicks into gear.  For now, eastern areas are in the running to get the most in the way of liquid equivalent out of this, as I suspect the folks in College Park, Maryland, sense what I do with the potential for a weak coastal low to develop. It would not surprise me to see reports of 1”+ rainfall along the shorelines. My confidence at this point is medium-low as of early Tuesday morning. There is still wiggle room here.  Northern Maine gets the snow out of this. It will blow around and get battered and bruised, making it finer and smaller in texture. The coastal front and the potential for a coastal low to develop make the forecast low confidence below the green hash line. Naturally, Bangor is in the crosshairs, making the outcome tough to figure out for that area. The bottom line is the Thursday morning commute is likely to be slick away from the immediate coast. Improvement comes later as the storm quickly exits to the northeast.  The wind picks up on Thursday, bringing blowing snow into the picture. This will reduce visibility and make it a challenge for road crews. With the storm intensifying, the wind cranks harder into Friday, which could bring some power outages. Wind chills reach the bitter cold range, which is not good for those who depend solely on electric service supplied by the power company. Wind holds at the ski resorts are likely. The wind is expected to subside into Saturday as the storm moves east. Stay tuned for updates.  Please support PTW into the next year Always have MULTIPLE ways to receive weather alerts. Stay aware, stay on alert, and stay safe. - Mike PRINT MEDIA: Feel free to quote and cite my work here for your stories. Please give me the professional courtesy of knowing that you are referencing my material so I can read your final product and acknowledge it on my media and link it on the PTW IN MEDIA page here on the website. Feel free to send me a message via the Facebook page or Twitter (X) to get my phone number if necessary. Thank you! NOTE: The forecast information depicted on this platform is for general information purposes only for the public and is not designed or intended for commercial use. For those seeking pinpoint weather information for business operations, you should use a private sector source. For information about where to find commercial forecasters to assist your business, please message me and I will be happy to help you. |
Mike Haggett
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