A cold front will pass through the region today. Timing remains on track for showers to become more numerous for the north and mountains through the morning. Outside of spot showers, the main event won't reach the coast until later in the afternoon. Showers end from northwest to southeast overnight, with the the remaining rain departing the coast by around dawn Tuesday. 

The main swath of the heaviest rain runs roughly from Fryeburg to Bethel northeast to Houlton and Calais where roughly 1-2" is expected, with lesser amounts north and south. 

Downpours are possible as the atmosphere will be rather rich with tropical moisture. This may cause ponding on roadways, poor drainage flooding, along with reduced visibility. A rumble of thunder is possible, but severe storms are not expected. 

With the slow moving front, a southwesterly breeze is likely to increase out ahead of it and appears to be gusty at times through the afternoon. With potential gusts 30+ mph, leaves, debris and trash / recycling receptacles may be blown around through early evening along the coastal plain. 

As the front moves offshore, the wind will settle overnight.  

With the tropical moisture around, it will be on the muggy side as dew points will be close to actual temperatures. Humidity levels drop as the front passes to the southeast overnight. 

With the frontal passage, temperatures to start on Tuesday will be a bit cooler with 40s and 50s.

A northwest breeze in the 15-25 mph range kicks up with high pressure moving into the region. This will clear any remaining cloud cover out and drop the dew points into the 40s by afternoon.

As high pressure settles in, the breeze drops and with a mainly clear sky for most, temperatures tumble.

NOTE: Both the Caribou and Gray National Weather Service offices have declared growing season over and will no longer issue frost or freeze related bulletins until spring. For those that are still tending gardens, you'll have to monitor the forecast closely and cover up when necessary. 

High pressure to the north keeps a brewing ocean storm with an associated upper level area of low pressure to the south of the region through the end of the week. There is still a great deal of uncertainty for any impacts to Maine. As I mentioned in Sunday morning's update, surf for the shorelines continues to be a fair bet at this point. For now, a chance for showers both Saturday and Sunday is the best estimate for now.

Stay tuned for more updates as the week unfolds.

► ► For the latest official forecasts, bulletins and advisories, please check in with the National Weather Service in Gray for western and southern areas, or Caribou for northern and eastern parts of Maine.

DONATION DRIVE UPDATE - $1020 shortfall for the year ahead! You can help keep Pine Tree Weather going with a donation of any amount now through VENMO @PineTreeWeather, a monthly donation on Patreon or messaging me on Facebook or Twitter to send a check in the mail. Thank you for your support!

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Always stay weather aware!

​- Mike

Sunday appears to be a mainly dry day for most. A few isolated showers are possible over the north and mountains in the afternoon. Showers become more numerous over the interior into Monday morning, then move southeast to the coast towards Monday afternoon and evening. The frontal boundary moves offshore early Tuesday, bringing dry conditions back to the region.

The general idea is for 1"+ of rainfall for western areas through the central highlands over to southern Aroostook County. With moisture from the Gulf of Mexico feeding into the front, any subtle slowdown of the progression of the boundary would lead to higher amounts. Since there is still a bit of uncertainty in my eyes, the idea proposed by the local National Weather Service offices above is a good basis point as to what to expect. 

After the chill of Sunday morning, temperatures will be warming up as high pressure moves offshore and the frontal boundary moves in from the west. After a day with dew points in the 30s, the humidity levels will rise as moisture ahead of the front moves in.

By Monday morning, temperatures will be noticeably warmer than Sunday by a significant margin, but with a chilly rain falling over the interior. 

As the front slowly moves through the region, humidity levels continue to build as dew points rise near projected the high temperature forecast. After the front passes Monday night, dew points fall down to the 40s for most by Tuesday morning. 

As the frontal boundary passes through the region Monday, an offshore tropical disturbance hitches a brief ride along the front and then splits off and intensifies over the Gulf stream. There is a great deal of uncertainty as to what happens after that. The general idea over the past few days is that it will retrograde westward for a time before a frontal boundary approaches later in the week and boots it out to sea. Any effects on Maine depends on the strength of the blocking high over eastern Canada and how far northwest the storm will track before departing. With it sitting over warm water, the storm could intensify. With blocking to the north and east, it could park itself and spin showers along the east coast for several days, into next weekend. 

The one consistent idea associated with this projected storm idea is surf potential. Battering waves are a real possibility for the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England coastlines. Swells from the storm work in the Gulf of Maine Thursday and continue through the weekend. With a full moon on the way in a week, folks with shoreline interest should monitor this closely.

Stay tuned for updates on this through the week!

​► ► For the latest official forecasts, bulletins and advisories, please check in with the National Weather Service in Gray for western and southern areas, or Caribou for northern and eastern parts of Maine.

DONATION DRIVE UPDATE - $1200 shortfall for the year ahead! You can help keep Pine Tree Weather going with a donation of any amount now through VENMO @PineTreeWeather, a monthly donation on Patreon or messaging me on Facebook or Twitter to send a check in the mail. Thank you for your support!

For more information from me, please check the Pine Tree Weather Facebook page as well as my Twitter feed. 

Always stay weather aware!

​- Mike

Steady rain and/or snow showers end quickly for most areas Friday morning. Some isolated spot showers associated with the passing upper level trough may pop over the western mountains, north and east this afternoon. As the trough continues east, any remaining showers appear to end by early evening.

With the departing trough to the east and surface high moving in from the west, the breeze increases through the day. It's not quite a Flying Trash Can Alert but it may tip over a few barrels through the afternoon. The wind slowly settles down overnight.

The temperatures for the day appear to run roughly 10° to 15° below the seasonal average. With the north breeze moving dry air in, it will feel cooler as wind chills could range in the 30s and 40s in areas through Friday evening. 

Frost advisories and/or freeze warnings have been issued by both the Gray and Caribou weather offices. This is a tricky forecast as it all depends on the wind. If the wind slacks off at some point in the wee hours of Saturday toward daylight, temps could dip into the 20s frost will develop quick. Cover up any plants as a precaution.

Abundant sun will be the rule of the day for Saturday, but it will be a bit on the cool side as temperatures appear to run roughly 5° below normal. Most areas will reach the 50s with 40s the high point on the higher hills.

With clear sky, frost concerns arise again for Sunday morning. High pressure at this point may have shifted east enough to allow a southwest flow to develop which may keep the shorelines above freezing. As a precaution, it would be wise to cover up any plants of importance once again.

High temperatures for Sunday appear to be where they should be for this point of the season. Clouds will be on the increase during the day, and spot showers are possible ahead of the approaching frontal boundary on the way.

Guidance is indicating a more progressive nature with the forecast front on the way, which could cut down on rain totals. Steady showers develop over the mountains and north Sunday night into Monday morning and then move east in the afternoon and reach the coast Monday night. Steady showers taper off over the mountains, north, and south early Tuesday, and eastern areas Tuesday afternoon. A trailing area of low pressure may bring scattered showers to the north Tuesday afternoon and end in the evening. 

Western and eastern areas appear to get roughly an inch of rain from this as it appears for now. It's still a bit early in the game to nail down amounts. Since this front will tap into moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, a slow down in progression of the boundary could add additional rain totals. I think this is good estimate for now based on the latest trends, but confidence overall is low on suggested amounts for now. 

Stay tuned...

​► ► For the latest official forecasts, bulletins and advisories, please check in with the National Weather Service in Gray for western and southern areas, or Caribou for northern and eastern parts of Maine.

Financial support of Pine Tree Weather is needed to keep operations going for 2020. Your help would be sincerely appreciated! 

For more information from me, please check the Pine Tree Weather Facebook page as well as my Twitter feed. 

Always stay weather aware!

​- Mike

From the "You Can Teach An Old Dog New Tricks" file, I've figured out website coding. As a result, I am making some improvements to the website that I have wanted to do for a very long time. There are a few new tabs to check out various items of weather interest. I will be adding and tweaking items as I go along here. Consider this all a work in progress.

So long as financial donations roll in, I will continue to do this. You determine whether this grows or goes away. For those that have made the commitment, I sincerely thank you. For those that have not yet done so, I would appreciate your strong consideration to financially support what I do. 

It will be mainly sunny to start off as high pressure pays a brief visit. As the high quickly slides east, clouds will be on the increase this afternoon as low pressure moves in from the west.

Steady precipitation holds off until Thursday evening. It will be a wet night with a chilly rain and wet snow for the higher elevations. 

Temperatures start off mainly in the 30s and 40s with upper 20s possible in the higher terrain and far north.

Rain ends for most areas by mid morning. Western and southern areas appear to get the higher totals, with lesser amounts to the north. 

No real changes in snow ideas as guidance has been pretty consistent over the past couple of days. Accumulations will be light, accumulating on grassy surfaces primarily. Road crews may have to drop some sand in spots, but it won't be a big deal. 

What snow falls will likely melt during the course of the day. It will be a breezy one, with wind chills in the 30s for western and northern areas as gusty north / northwest winds draw cool dry air in from Quebec.

Coastal areas that may have escaped frost recently may not be so fortunate this time. The wind will settle down Friday night. With a clear sky, temperatures head south. Cover up the mums before you go to bed. 

Saturday will be a mostly sunny day with a bluebird sky. Highs for the day range from the low 50s north to upper 50s south.

​Sunday starts off frosty again with 20s and 30s. High pressure slowly moves to the east and brings temperatures up a bit, with 50s north and 60s south.

Timing is still to be worked out, but the idea remains consistent for a long wave frontal boundary working through the region Monday into Tuesday. For the parched areas of southwestern parts of the state, this is welcome news. Pending on how this comes together, there may be some flooding issues if the projected 1-3" of rain some guidance is indicating comes true. Details on this will get figured out over the weekend.  

Stay tuned...

​► ► For the latest official forecasts, bulletins and advisories, please check in with the National Weather Service in Gray for western and southern areas, or Caribou for northern and eastern parts of Maine.

Donations are needed for the future of Pine Tree Weather. Thank you for your support!   

For more information from me, please check the Pine Tree Weather Facebook page as well as my Twitter feed. 

Always stay weather aware!

​- Mike

A cold front drifts to the south during the day on Wednesday. Moisture riding along the boundary brings some shower activity to the southern half of the state. Showers clear out of most areas Wednesday afternoon. York County may not see the showers end until Wednesday evening.

Not a whole lot of rainfall expected for the day. The further south, the better chance for measurable amounts.  

It will be a cool day for the Crown with highs in the 40s. Western and eastern areas are likely to top out in the 50s, with 60s the high point for southern areas.

As the front passes south, skies clear out and temperatures plummet overnight. Folks may want to cover the mums and any other vegetation of importance Wednesday night. 

Highs for the day will mainly be in the 50s everywhere in the state, with a few 40s for the roof top.

Southern areas may see some spotty shower activity Thursday afternoon, but the main slug of moisture arrives Thursday night. Rain and higher elevation snow showers taper off Friday morning.

Shovels will not be needed for this event, with the exception of Mount Washington. Snow appears wet in nature, and will stick to the trees and leaves that are near peak over interior areas. It may make for some beautiful photography Friday morning. 

Southern and western areas likely see the most rain by Friday morning. After the rain on Tuesday and Wednesday, along with this on the way, some southern areas may exceed the total rain recorded in September within the first four days of October. 

The weekend appears dry and cool overall. Clouds begin to increase Sunday as a long wave frontal boundary moves east. The front appears on track to tap into the moisture in the Gulf of Mexico and could bring a soaking rain to much of the state Monday into Tuesday. A rough estimate of 1-2" of rain is possible, but it is a early to get too specific. Updates to come on this as we approach the weekend. 

​A special thank you to those that have signed up to be monthly contributors on my Patreon page and to those who have mailed checks to me.  This a labor of love here. I don't mind the 4 AM wake up calls (2 AM for snow days) to formulate a forecast, create graphics then write it all out for your consumption, so long as I have the financial support from you to continue to do so.  There is no media or marketing influence here. No model forecast bias. No political or scientific agenda. It's just Maine weather, plain and simple. I would appreciate your support to continue this for 2020. Contributors are donation on average of $5 per month / $60 per year either through Patreon or by check. No amount is too small. This is Maine, most of us are on tight budgets, and having been there myself, I understand the struggle. All I ask is to do what you can. If you can't do anything financially right now, that is totally understandable. Please pass along what I do to others and help this site to grow!

Thank you for your support! 

► ► For the latest official forecasts, bulletins and advisories, please check in with the National Weather Service in Gray for western and southern areas, or Caribou for northern and eastern parts of Maine.

For more information from me, please check the Pine Tree Weather Facebook page as well as my Twitter feed. 

Always stay weather aware!

​- Mike