Already double digit snow amounts reported in New Hampshire from banding that set up overnight, and as much as 7" reported in Ogunquit as of 5 AM Monday morning. There will be a lull for a few hours today, and then as the storm organizes tonight, that is when it will get interesting for most of the state going into Tuesday.  

Each level of the atmosphere has its own areas of highs and lows as the surface does. When those lows arrange on top of each other, the storm becomes vertically stacked, and in the case of a winter NorEaster, can become powerful. These images above show a storm that is about as disorganized as it can be, yet was able to bring a foot of snow in areas to the south and west of the state, which had much to do with frontogenesis at the 700 mb level (9,882 ft) above the surface. As scattered as the lows are, it makes for a tough call. Every model is different with their ideas, which creates more headaches. I don't want to make excuses for those of us who forecast, but I wanted to share this with you in hopes you'll better understand why ideas have been scattered and that the forecast goes far beyond surface and snowfall charts.  Mother Nature is quite a machine.  

5 AM - 7 PM: For all but southern areas, it will be a waiting game on Monday. There will be a lull of activity for road crews to catch a breath, before precipitation picks up toward the evening commute.

7PM - 7AM:  Overnight, the storm begins to stack up vertically over the Gulf of Maine. As it gets its act together, precipitation begins to spread north and east. 

Concerns for sleet and freezing rain causing a messy situation for MidCoast areas DownEast as warm air aloft and near the surface intrude. 

7 AM Tuesday to early Wednesday: Concern remains that once the low organizes that it may sneak back to the west before moving eastward. As the storm intensifies, areas of heavy snow and wind will cause travel problems as road crews will have difficulty keeping up.

As I mentioned late Sunday afternoon on Facebook, these deformation bands (areas of heavy snow) are very tricky to forecast. Guidance hints at their possibility, but where they set up and for how long is a nowcasting situation between radar and surface reports. As I have said over the past couple of days, expect the unexpected, prepare for surprises, and expect very tricky travel or possibly impassable roads for a time as a result of this. 

Just a minor adjustment to snow totals to bump accumulations up in northern areas. I suspect with the deformation bands some areas will bust very high, perhaps as much as 18". Southwestern areas may get a touch of sleet, but the main concern for that will be MidCoast up through DownEast areas. 

​► ► For the latest official forecasts, bulletins and advisories, please check in with the National Weather Service in Gray for western and southern areas, or Caribou for northern and eastern parts of Maine.

For southern areas, this appears to be roughly a 48 hour event. For most of the rest of the region it appears to be 24-30 hour event. Bust potential still looms large in many facets of the forecast, especially the Tuesday part. I'll give it my best shot here, but confidence is low. 

The storm will be slower in arrival, so for those folks hanging on for an extra day of family time before you head home, you lucked out. Conditions will go downhill over western New England this afternoon. The first wave of flakes should arrive in southern Maine by around early evening.

The storm stalls and spins east of the benchmark 40°/ 70° through the day on Monday. Dry air to the north shuts out ski country and the north. High pressure associated with that dry air keeps precipitation confined to southern areas from roughly Fryeburg to Rockland south through early Monday evening.

The heavier amounts of snow are to be in York County. Due to the stalling of the storm, I remain concerned that warm air will sneak in aloft and form a TROWAL (TRough Of Warm air ALoft) and bring the threat for sleet. There is always the chance for a coastal front to develop, but the strong northeast wind may limit that chance to the islands and immediate shorelines. Add the wind that could gust 20-30+ mph, all the ingredients will make for tough travel in the most populated region of the state. 

So this is where the forecast gets real complicated. I've mentioned previously issues with the lack of stacking between the surface low, mid-level lows and the upper low which is causing the conundrum of mixed forecast ideas as a result of various model solutions. Where the atmosphere may pull together appears early Tuesday. As the upper low moves into capture the surface low, an new surface low forms and then potentially heads north in the Gulf of Maine towards DownEast areas before moving east. 

With that idea, this is where the rest of the state gets in on the precipitation, and will potentially cause issues with the morning and evening commutes for Bangor and points north and west. 

The storm departs and precipitation shuts down Tuesday night. Strong wind may cause blowing an drifting of snow, and potentially some power outages. 

Day two of the storm brings additional accumulations to southern areas, and brings most of the rest of the state a decent amount of snow through Tuesday evening.

Add Monday and Tuesday totals together and this is the end result. It's crazy, but it's not out of the realm of possibility. 

Stay tuned.

​► ► For the latest official forecasts, bulletins and advisories, please check in with the National Weather Service in Gray for western and southern areas, or Caribou for northern and eastern parts of Maine.

​► ► $620 shortfall for the year ahead! You can help keep Pine Tree Weather going with a donation of any amount now through VENMO @PineTreeWeather, a monthly donation on Patreon or messaging me on Facebook or Twitter to send a check in the mail. Thank you for your support!

For more information from me, please check the Pine Tree Weather Facebook page as well as my Twitter feed. 

Always stay weather aware!

​- Mike

I'll say it again as I did on Facebook Friday night, if you have to travel in or out of Maine, do it today. At the time of this post at 6 AM Saturday, winter storm warnings have gone into effect for western Massachusetts. Winter storm watches have been expanded across Southern New England and New Hampshire. While Cumberland and York County in Maine are the only two counties under watch now, there may be more areas that will be added to that list. 

Southwestern Maine may not see much in the way of snowfall until late afternoon Sunday. By that time, it is well underway to the south and west. This is going cause big problems for southern New England, and will do so through Tuesday.

The storm isn't going to move a whole lot. It will be trapped within the region due to blocking. A cut-off upper level low won't get the kick it needs to move until Tuesday.

I mentioned on Facebook Friday that the storm is not vertically stacked. Given that fact, and that it is a slow mover, this presents all kinds of forecasting headaches. With due credit to the National Weather Service Gray office, the idea of a TROWAL comes into play. A TROWAL is the acronym for TRough Of Warm air ALoft which could bring sleet into the picture by midday on Monday. 

The next wrench is as the storm center approaches the benchmark point (40° N / 70° W) a new surface low begins to form to the northeast. It will be around this time that begins to happen. If it all stacks up right, it will get interesting.

Northeast winds will gradually increase Sunday night into Monday, and continue into Tuesday. As the storm shifts east, the direction shifts to the northwest and will continue to blow snow around Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Due to forecast uncertainty for Tuesday, and to clarify what to expect through Monday, I opted to provide the snowfall idea in stages to help you plan accordingly. 

With the TROWAL effect, along with a coastal front a likely possibility, that may cut snow totals down for a bit. This idea also contains the possibility of deformation bands developing, and if and where that happens, expect totals higher than this. 

With this type of set up, it would be wise to expect the unexpected. 

This loop at 3 hour stages starts Monday at 7 PM and runs through Wednesday 7 PM. This shows the new surface low forming to the northeast and then runs into an atmospheric road block, moves north into the Bay of Fundy before moving eastward. At least that is the idea for now. Northern and eastern areas may get their load from this before it is over.

Stay tuned. 

► ► For the latest official forecasts, bulletins and advisories, please check in with the National Weather Service in Gray for western and southern areas, or Caribou for northern and eastern parts of Maine.

​► ► $620 shortfall for the year ahead! You can help keep Pine Tree Weather going with a donation of any amount now through VENMO @PineTreeWeather, a monthly donation on Patreon or messaging me on Facebook or Twitter to send a check in the mail. Thank you for your support!

For more information from me, please check the Pine Tree Weather Facebook page as well as my Twitter feed. 

Always stay weather aware!

​- Mike

The forecast radar loop here from 5 AM until midnight shows the state on the backside of the storm. As the storm moves east, it will take the precipitation along with it. Other than snow upslope snow showers continuing over the mountains, the last of the rain drops and/or snowflakes end over the Eastport / Machias region by mid-afternoon.

Folks travelling today need to stay mindful of the colder air moving into the region. Watch the vehicle thermometer closely, and take 5° off the reading to adjust to potential surface temperature. 

As the storm heads east, it will intensify and bring gusty wind along with it. It will be both hands on the wheel for any highway driving through the evening. Areas where there is powder snow will deal with blowing and drifting, which will cause slick spots and potential brief whiteout conditions. 

Friday and Saturday will be breezy and chilly as the storm stalls south of Newfoundland. Sunday will be on the cold side, but less windy, with clouds on the increase ahead of the next storm to start next week.

Still too early to get into a whole lot of detail on this one, other than the fact guidance has indicated for a couple of days that this is likely to happen. To no surprise, the solutions vary as to how this will play out. With the cold air being dragged down from the north thanks to the Thanksgiving storm stalling out to the east, that ingredient indicates the potential for more frozen precipitation type. Track and intensity will dictate whether the storm is all snow, or a potential mix for coastal areas. The storm could be slow in moving out, with blocking to the north and east, and could play a factor in how long it hangs around. 

I will update on this on Friday.

​► ► For the latest official forecasts, bulletins and advisories, please check in with the National Weather Service in Gray for western and southern areas, or Caribou for northern and eastern parts of Maine.

The holidays can be filled with mixed emotions for people. I am one of those. I think about the family and friends that have passed, and also the blessings I have been given. I've had holidays that were very rough due to circumstances, and others that were very enjoyable. One thing I have realized over the years is it all passes. It ebbs and flows, just like the weather. Life and weather are very similar. There are bad storms and quiet, sunny periods. Then there is those share of days that are partly cloudy with a chance of showers. My hope and prayer for each of you who follow is for guidance to get through a rough time that may be occuring, and that you find joy in the midst of it. I pray for peace over you. May each of you be blessed immeasurably. We walk together in this journey together, and you are never alone. 

I can't thank you enough for your support to me over the years. I am truly humbled by it. It's all systems go for me to start the weather forecast certification program through Penn State World Campus beginning in January. It is all because of your support that I get to do this. I sincerely appreciate it! 

​► ► $620 shortfall for the year ahead! You can help keep Pine Tree Weather going with a donation of any amount now through VENMO @PineTreeWeather, a monthly donation on Patreon or messaging me on Facebook or Twitter to send a check in the mail. Thank you for your support!

For more information from me, please check the Pine Tree Weather Facebook page as well as my Twitter feed. 

Always stay weather aware!

​- Mike

Thanksgiving travel is challenge enough as it is. Whether it is getting across town to run the last minute errands, or driving a fair distance to be with family and/or friends,  the roads are plugged with everyone else doing the same thing. I saw a very bad accident near the Biddeford exit southbound on my way home last night. I just began to pray for those involved. Slow down. It's not worth driving like you're going to be late for your funeral, or to make someone early for thiers. 

Around the evening commute is when conditions will begin to deteriorate over southern and western areas. For most it will be rain, but the further north, the better chance for slick conditions. Precipitation continues to move north and east into the evening. 

By midnight, western and eastern areas will have something going on. Southern areas may get a bit of a break as the coastal low begins to form just offshore. 

By the time the bird goes into the oven, most of the freezing rain and sleet will have turned to snow over the interior. The coastal low has formed by this point and will intensify, which will increase wind. Areas of whiteout conditions are possible for interior areas.

By the noon hour, cooler air appears to have overspread most of the region. Areas where there was rain may freeze and cause slick spots as temperatures drop. The last remaining snow showers exit DownEast areas by 2-3 PM. Snow showers persist in the mountains in Thanksgiving night. 

The higher the elevation, the higher the snowfall amounts. Pockets of freezing rain and sleet may put a dent in this idea, but maybe not by much. For southern areas, what snow falls will come on Thanksgiving. The main concern won't be so much shoveling, as the ice that may develop on roadways as cooler air drops down behind the coastal low during the morning.

Thanksgiving will be the height of the wind, but it will remain breezy as the storm stalls south of Newfoundland on Friday. The bitter wind chill holds off until Friday morning as even colder air works into the area, thanks to the stalled storm. 

While widespread power outages are unlikely, spotty outages are possible. Folks who live along the coast and higher elevations inland may experience loss. If you have a lot of cooking to do, try to get as much done as you can ahead of time before with wind gears up Thanksgiving afternoon.

Please watch on my Facebook page and Twitter for more information.

► ► For the latest official forecasts, bulletins and advisories, please check in with the National Weather Service in Gray for western and southern areas, or Caribou for northern and eastern parts of Maine.