Guidance has tweaked a bit colder overnight, and as a result, snow amounts have increased slightly. The margin of error here is +/- 1-2° F around the lower levels. Any deviation in the forecast track could make the storm cooler or warmer. There is a fine line in all of this, therefore bust potential with more or less snow exists.   

As I have mentioned here over the past couple of updates, banding will be the key issue. Where it happens and for how long will be the difference between who gets how much and for how long. Given the compact nature of the developing low, the main concern is for the coastal plain on up into the western foothills over towards Millinocket and Danforth. Northern areas and the mountains don't get a whole lot out of this from what it appears at this point. Snowfall rates of around 1+" per hour are possible. Given the heavy, wet nature of the snow, this will stick to everything and make roads slick, and with the wind, potential for down tree limbs and power outages.

Precipitation begins around the evening commute for far western and southern areas, and will reach into northern and eastern areas between 8-11 PM. Precipitation ends in western and southern areas between 5-8 AM, then exit northern and eastern areas by noon. 

The southwest interior appears to be the jackpot region. As I mentioned yesterday here, the higher hills in the coastal plain are likely to get the higher amounts. The shorelines may fall in the 1-3" range, with rain potential for the islands. The coastal front is always an issue with these events and if it works inland, would reduce totals. With the potential surface temperatures hovering around 32-35° within 5-10 miles of the shoreline, it's a bit of a crap shoot pending on where the melting layer sets up, and if that happens, for how long. This means a potential snow / rain mix for the seaside towns. 

These spring events bring bust potential and surprises with snow amounts. Be aware of that. 

This loop here indicates wind from 2 PM Monday through noon Tuesday. ​As the storm works just inside the 40° N / 70° W point south of Nantucket, it will be intensifying as it moves eastward. This will kick up the wind, with gusts 15-30 mph possible for the coastal plain through Monday night into Tuesday morning. 

The wind is likely to pick up Tuesday afternoon as the storm intensifies and high pressure moves in from the northwest. By this point, the threat for power loss is likely to be minimized. 

Shoveling and plowing with this one is all at the discretion of the beholder. For the coastal plain, temperatures will rise into the 40s with some 50s possible for southern areas. Add a mainly sunny day for the most affected areas of the coastal plain, Mother Nature will do her job and help clean up her mess. Temperatures do fall below freezing everywhere Tuesday night, so there is potential for some black ice where the sun and ground does not absorb the melting. Wednesday sees temps rise above freezing for most areas with 30s and 40s, a bit cooler than Tuesday. 

​Feel free to use the many pages available on this website for many types of forecasts on rainfall, snowfall, marine, longer range CPC outlooks and maps. 

Thank you as always for your support! 

​► ► For the latest official forecasts, bulletins and advisories, please check in with the National Weather Service in Gray for western and southern areas, or Caribou for northern and eastern parts of Maine.

Always stay weather aware!

​- Mike

Thanks for checking in here. My hope and prayer for each of you is that you are alright and taking this time in stride, you have the essentials that you need, and staying connected to friends and family. It's incredibly odd to drive around and see how quiet everything is away from the grocery store and the drive-thru coffee and fast food restaurants. Since I work in the commercial vehicle industry, I am still commuting to work during the week. I do not expect that to change, for the simple reason: no trucks means no toilet paper, and no food. I am picking up the phone more, participating in online video meetings to see folks. School keeps me busy as well. I am getting outside as much as I can.  I find fresh air and nature to be of help. I listen to contemporary jazz music to relax the soul.  I have reduced my intake of news and social media a great deal to escape the hysteria, fear, and drama going on. I have come to the realization that I can't fix or cure what is going on, and this situation is well beyond any personal control. It is what it is. We're all in the same boat. We wash our hands frequently, listen to do what is required by the government. All I can do is take care of myself, and keep moving forward. I hope you are passing the time productively, while finding peace and gratitude along the way.

​Please let me know how you are doing, through comments or messages. 

It won't be a washout of a week, just periodically annoying for those trying to get out to and receive the fresh air and exercise. Monday night / Tuesday morning appears the messiest of the week, with subtle shots of precipitation through the remainder of the week. Temperatures still appear to be above normal by-in-large, but not quite warm enough to avoid the flakes completely.

This chart loop shows the upper level air pattern at around 20,000 feet through the week. The real warm air stays south, the real cold air stays north. In between, short waves of troughs and ridges will bring variety to the weather pattern through Friday. Saturday sees a ridge surge in which could bring precipitation then, followed by a strong trough for Sunday. Like it has been since December, it's quick shots of warm, cold and precipitation. There is nothing major that is storm related of any concern.

WIth the zonal pattern, precipitation will come and go rather quickly. This event fits that criteria. With the upper low tapping into to moisture from the south, it will bring a slug of precipitation along with it. Snow accumulations will come quickly once the air column saturates Monday afternoon into the evening. Western and southern areas may deal with some greasy spots around the time of the evening commute, or just after. For most areas, this event is over by daylight Tuesday, or soon thereafter. 

Snowfall idea presented here has been adjusted from Saturday's update. I am concerned with some heavier bands popping up which may bring a bit more snow in areas, and less in others. The closer to the coast, the slushier the snow gets, hence the reduction there. The higher elevations of the coastal plain and foothills are likely to get the higher end amounts.

​For most, unless you want to shovel to get outside and help with boredom, you won't need to move it. Temperatures for the Tuesday will rise above freezing everywhere with upper 30s north, 40s west and east, and 50s south. Mother Nature has her way of cleaning up her own messes this time of year. It will be breezy as the storm intensifies over the Canadian Maritimes. 

Wednesday will feature temperatures above freezing as well in the 30s & 40s, with less breeze. 

Warm air from the south wants to work northeastward, but with the zonal flow and cold to the north, it won't get very far through the remainder of the work week. A weak trough spins up a surface low that brings another chance for light snow for parts of the region Wednesday night into Thursday.  An inverted trough set up on it's heels -may- bring some light snow or rain activity to the area on Friday, but it is a low chance for now. 

​​Feel free to use the many pages available on this website for many types of forecasts on rainfall, snowfall, marine, longer range CPC outlooks and maps. 

Thank you as always for your support! 

​► ► For the latest official forecasts, bulletins and advisories, please check in with the National Weather Service in Gray for western and southern areas, or Caribou for northern and eastern parts of Maine.

Always stay weather aware!

​- Mike

Astronomical winter is now over, and spring is officially here. With early spring comes the chance for snow and that is what we appear to deal with to start the week. Whether you are a snow lover or snow hater, time is running out for the flakes to fly. With above normal temperatures continuing, what comes won't stay for long. 

While on the breezy and cool side, it will be virtually cloud free. Our departing storm slowly moves into the Canadian Maritimes and high pressure moves in behind it. Saturday will be the breezier of the two days. Downsloping winds keeps the mountains cool and the shorelines warmer. The wind settles into Sunday, albeit briefly. High pressure moves eastward, and changes the flow from the north/northwest to the southwest as we head into Monday. 

One thing that has been missing for much of the the winter are NorEasters. We have one here. An upper level low negatively tilts and sets up low pressure off the New Jersey shoreline. With the cold air in place from the weekend, this appears to be mainly snow event. The track of the storm for now appears just inside the 40°N / 70°W benchmark point. 

Monday sees increasing clouds with snow developing over western and southern areas by the evening commute. It will overspread the state Monday night. Precipitation ends in western and southern areas around daylight Tuesday, and most of the rest of the region by around noon. Folks in far eastern areas see the last of snow or rain shower activity end by mid-afternoon.

Coastal interior areas have the best chance for 6" of snow from this event, with lesser amounts elsewhere. With above freezing temperatures and higher sun angle, Mother Nature will do her job and clean up the mess she left behind as the rest of the week unfolds. 

​Get out and make a snowman! 

The wind picks back up Monday as the storm works through the region. With the snow being a sticky affair, I can't rule out potential for some isolated power outages, but at this point I don't see more than that. With the melting of the day Tuesday, the threat reduces quickly.

After a cool start to the week, temperatures rise Tuesday. Daily highs run above freezing through the remainder of the forecast period. 

​Feel free to use the many pages available on this website for many types of forecasts on rainfall, snowfall, marine, longer range CPC outlooks and maps. 

Thank you as always for your support! 

​► ► For the latest official forecasts, bulletins and advisories, please check in with the National Weather Service in Gray for western and southern areas, or Caribou for northern and eastern parts of Maine.

Always stay weather aware!

​- Mike

While it will be damp at times, it won't be a total washout either day for western and southern areas, or Friday for northern and eastern areas. The mornings over the weekend will remind us it's early spring, with some chilly starts. Please do your best to get outside during this unprecedented time and enjoy the fresh air and nature around us.

A weak area of low pressure cuts along building upper ridge and brings generally light precipitation to western and southern regions Thursday. I can't rule out some isolated snow flurry activity over parts of northern and eastern areas, but those areas should stay dry through daylight hours, but see clouds on the increase. Interior western areas may see a mix of light snow or light freezing rain for a time Thursday morning, and again perhaps Thursday night. Any snow accumulations appear less than an inch, any icing would be a trace at the worst. 

​Temperatures for the day range in the 30s for the mountains and north and 40s elsewhere. The thermometer may only drop a few degrees Thursday night into early Friday as warm air surges in from the south, with lows in the 30s.

A breeze from the south/southeast at 10-20 mph with gusts to 25 mph for the shorelines is possible Thursday into early Friday.

The warm front surges in from the southwest Thursday night and brings off and on shower activity to the region through Friday. The sun may poke out in areas. Where it does could see temperatures climb into the 60s. Where the sun does not break through, temperatures will range in the upper 40s to the 50s. It will be another breezy one as southwest winds build ahead of the approaching cold front, with gusts again in the 15-25 mph range. After the cold front passes through, the wind shifts to the west/northwest and gusts remain in the 15-25 mph range Friday night. The mountains can expect some snow shower activity Friday night, with accumulations of an inch or less possible. 

Clouds clear out Friday night. As they do, temperatures drop. Low temperatures Saturday morning fall to the teens north and mountains, 20s for coastal interior areas / foothills and low 30s for the shorelines. With a gusty west/northwest breeze, the air will be crisp everywhere to start off. Temperatures will be cooler Sunday morning with single digits north with teens and 20s elsewhere, but will little wind. Daily highs for both days range in the 20s for the north and mountains, 30s for the foothills coastal interior and DownEast, with 40s for southern areas.

Feel free to use the many pages available on this website for many types of forecasts on rainfall, snowfall, marine, longer range CPC outlooks and maps. 

Thank you as always for your support! 

​► ► For the latest official forecasts, bulletins and advisories, please check in with the National Weather Service in Gray for western and southern areas, or Caribou for northern and eastern parts of Maine.

Always stay weather aware!

​- Mike

Not a whole lot of changes to the forecast that was posted here on Sunday. Western and southern areas may see a few flakes for the morning drive. The steadier precipitation works through the mush region Tuesday morning, reaching northern areas by midday, and Washington County by early afternoon. Southern and western areas may catch a sunset as the storm accelerates into Atlantic Canada by Tuesday evening. The last of the precipitation over eastern and northern areas ends by around 10 PM Tuesday night.

Just a subtle tweak to the snowfall map bringing snow a bit closer to the Bangor region. For much of the coastal plain, this is primarily a rain event, with some minor snow accumulation on grassy surfaces over the coastal interior. 

It's definitely a day for rain gear as the wind will increase as the warm front approaches. A brisk southerly wind gusting in the 20-30 mph range is possible ahead of the front. The wind shifts to the west / northwest on the backside Tuesday afternoon into the evening. 

Temperatures for the day start off in the single digits / teens north and mountains with 20s for the coastal plain. With the warm front, temperatures rise into the 30s for most areas, with low 40s possible for the south. Behind the front, the mercury falls into the teens for the far north, 20s elsewhere over interior areas to right around 30° for the shorelines to start Wednesday. 

Wednesday appears to be a mainly sunny day with clouds on the increase over western and southern areas in the afternoon. Highs for the day range in the 30s for the mountains and north, 40s for the coastal plain. 

Thursday sees a chance for snow and rain showers, with little snow accumulation expected for interior areas. Friday appears to be a rainy affair statewide, and the warmest day of the week. Saturday sees snow showers in the mountains early, ending in the morning. It appears to be a sunny, but windy and cooler. 

Keep the faith! We'll get through this unprecedented period in time. 

Thanks as always for your support! 

Feel free to use the many pages available on this website for many types of forecasts on rainfall, snowfall, marine, longer range CPC outlooks and maps. 

​► ► For the latest official forecasts, bulletins and advisories, please check in with the National Weather Service in Gray for western and southern areas, or Caribou for northern and eastern parts of Maine.

You can help keep Pine Tree Weather going into the future with a donation of ANY amount now through VENMO @PineTreeWeather, a monthly donation on Patreon or messaging me on Facebook or Twitter to send a check in the mail. Thank you for your support!

Always stay weather aware!

​- Mike