A colder track means a snowier one for southwest coastal areas, although I do suspect a coastal front will work in at the low levels of the atmosphere could bring a bit of ice for MidCoast and DownEast areas as a parting gift as the storm heads into the Canadian Maritimes. The storm will slick roads up in areas, especially the less traveled ones. The road crews should not have a difficult time with this one as this is a manageable event overall. 

A lot of dry air around so accumulations may delay out of the gate. Some flakes may fly this afternoon over southern and western areas, but it may not pile up until early evening.  

By 1 AM Sunday, most areas could have some snow on the ground. I mentioned on Facebook Friday afternoon the chance for a "thump" or banding to occur that could increase snowfall rates to around an inch an hour. That remains a possibility, and the short term models are focusing mainly on the coast for that to occur. 

By 7 AM Sunday, southwestern areas wrapping up with the initial wave, while snow falls elsewhere.

Heading into the afternoon, the transition from warm front to coastal low begins to form. Snowfall over southern and western areas has tapered, but it's not over yet.

As the coastal low better organizes snow showers return to western and southern areas Sunday afternoon into early evening. Backside banding may bring an inch in spots.

Steady snow tapers to snow showers by around midnight Monday. Most areas see snow end by daylight Monday morning, with Washington County seeing some snow showers ending soon after sunrise. 

The further away from the coast, the fluffier the snow, not that I expect the snow that falls along the coast to be difficult to move. Rockland - Bar Harbor - Eastport may be on low end for totals pending on how the coastal front sets up and brings a chance for a glaze of ice. 

The week head appears quiet until we get to the weekend. It's too early to get into much detail on this one as far as timing, precipitation type and impacts. It's on the radar, and a week to watch it. 

► ► For the latest official forecasts, bulletins and advisories, please check in with the National Weather Service in Gray for western and southern areas, or Caribou for northern and eastern parts of Maine.

Through Saturday morning, it's just nasty cold. This cold air sets up the precipitation type for our next storm that will begin to impact the region Saturday night, which appears to start off as snow everywhere. Expect slick travel whether by vehicle or by foot into Sunday.

We've seen this movie quite a bit this winter with the Colorado/Great Lakes low spinning off a coastal low and transfering that energy into it as it heads off the the Canadian Maritimes. In past storms, it's brought the four precipitation food groups and frustration for forecasters as well as inhabitants who had to deal with it. This one is more straightforward. With the deep cold in place as Thursday's storm implodes over the northwest Atlantic, the approaching warm front runs into that wall of cold and as a result most of the precipitation will be frozen.

The storm begins to have impact over western and southern areas Saturday night, and spreads to northern and eastern areas overnight into the wee hours of Sunday. Steady precipitation yields to snow showers for interior western areas Sunday morning.  Freezing drizzle and/or rain is possible for shoreline areas through Sunday afternoon. The bulk of the remaining precipitation ends late afternoon for northern and eastern areas, but snow showers are expected to continue into Monday.

Factoring in the potential for a coastal front due to the close proximity of the developing ocean storm, shoreline regions are on the lighter end for accumulations. The ski hills continue to build their bases with another solid snow event. 

Overnight lows could be flirting with 0° for a couple of mornings to start the workweek, so keep the stoves going and the wood ready to burn. Outside of some light precipitation possible later in the week as slightly warmer air moves in, there is no major storms in sight, for now. 

​► ► For the latest official forecasts, bulletins and advisories, please check in with the National Weather Service in Gray for western and southern areas, or Caribou for northern and eastern parts of Maine.

​► ► $65 shortfall for the year ahead! You can help keep Pine Tree Weather going with a donation of ANY amount now through VENMO @PineTreeWeather, a monthly donation on Patreon or messaging me on Facebook or Twitter to send a check in the mail. Thank you for your support!

For more information from me, please check the Pine Tree Weather Facebook page as well as my Twitter feed. 

Always stay weather aware!

​- Mike

As I have said for the past couple days, prepare. If you are in a warning or advisory area, you should have your storm supplies stocked up and generators ready to go, For most, it won't be so much about amounts, as it will be about impacts. Expect surprises. This storm will have them. With tropical moisture and cold air, there will be thunder, there will periods of heavy precipitation, and there will be problems created from it. Respect of conditions is what this storm commands.  

Northern areas deal with scattered showers through the day as the frontal boundary stalls out over the Gaspe peninsula. It starts to move south late afternoon, and will begin to interact with the charge of moisture coming in from the Gulf of Mexico.

By midnight, freezing rain and sleet begins to creep in for the central highlands. 

By 7 AM, heavy snow to the north, and the ice storm is well underway.  NOTE: the model depiction here may be a tad on the warm end. Central & DownEast Maine should be expecting ice

By Sunday noon, precipitation begins to taper off for southern areas. A surge of warm air ahead of an approaching cold front from the west may flip ice to rain over the western foothills. Most of the icing will have taken place by this point.

By 3 PM, the last of the precipitation exits DownEast areas. Snow begins to taper off for northern areas. 

By early Sunday evening, snow showers and flurries will be all that remains, and those should end by around midnight. 

National Weather Service outlooks for snow and ice here. DownEast areas likely to see the most impact from ice. Northern areas get the most snow. Jackman-Greenville-Millinocket-Houlton-Danforth are in the crosshairs of the storm with not only freezing rain, but ice pellets (sleet) also. 

As I mentioned on Facebook Friday afternoon, frontogenesis is going to be a key player in this. Banding will set up. Where it does is going to dump. Some areas are going to get more than they bargained for out this. Conversely, some areas may underperform as well. 

Southern areas may see isolated thunderstorms with a shots of heavy rain. Western and eastern area may see isolated thundersleet or thunderice, and perhaps northern areas may see isolated thundersnow.

​Expect surprises.  

As the storm exits, high pressure takes over for Monday into Tuesday. A warm front approaches the region Tuesday, which may bring some light snow / mix Tuesday night. Precipitation from that ends early Wednesday.

With the warm front comes warmer temperatures, which will help get the ice off everything in areas where the mercury climbs above freezing, and help clean this storm up. 

We may get a snowier system Thursday into Friday. Stay tuned for more on that,

► ► For the latest official forecasts, bulletins and advisories, please check in with the National Weather Service in Gray for western and southern areas, or Caribou for northern and eastern parts of Maine.

NOTE: I will be leaving for Boston for the American Meteorological Society convention Saturday afternoon, and will be there through Wednesday. I will do my best to keep you folks updated while I am away. Facebook and Twitter are the places to find me.

​► ► $65 shortfall for the year ahead! You can help keep Pine Tree Weather going with a donation of ANY amount now through VENMO @PineTreeWeather, a monthly donation on Patreon or messaging me on Facebook or Twitter to send a check in the mail. Thank you for your support!

For more information from me, please check the Pine Tree Weather Facebook page as well as my Twitter feed. 

Always stay weather aware!

​- Mike

I see this loop and all I can think of is summer. Bermuda high in place, a big surge of Gulf of Mexico moisture, and a cold front moving in from the west. It's a perfect recipe for severe weather. Coming back to reality, I see that it is January. This isn't good. This storm will bring all four precipitation food groups to the region, and copious amounts of it for most areas. 

Precipitation amounts appear light between now and Saturday. Heads up to my followers in the western mountains and foothills... you may get some light mixing for a period on Friday, but it does not appear to have any big concerns. 

Saturday night into Sunday is the main event. It starts north, and then drops south, and it could get real bad.

Everything we are dealing with here is temperature dependent. not only at the surface, but in the upper levels of the atmosphere. Where the warm nose sticks in aloft and the timing of the cold air bleeding down from the north will dictate who gets what and for how long as the system moves through. 

Here are two competing ideas in that regard:

The European idea is for a freezing rain event, and enough of it to be concerned for potential power outages. The wind appears to pick up Sunday afternoon as the frontal boundary passes through, which could bring down tree limbs and power lines. 

Then their is this scenario...

This is colder idea. The GFS is thinking enough cold will bleed down and will be entrenched enough at the lower level to make this a sleet / ice pellet storm. The idea of power outages is greatly diminished, but roads will be a big mess. 

Anytime I see temperatures in the single digits / low teens in the north with a northeast wind flow, I get worried. It's that type of cold that does not mix out, and it is like moving a brick wall given its dense nature. Could models be overdoing the idea of cold as a result? Absolutely. We've witnessed that time and time again. It's much easier for cold to move in aloft than at the surface. It's all a timing game on the cold, and guidance hasn't quite figured it out yet.

And since we have Gulf moisture around, along with a sharp temperature gradient, there's this:

We've had some thundersnow already this winter. We could have thundersleet, and possibly thunder freezing rain. Any time there is thunder, there is usually a downpour that comes along with it. 

I posted this idea on Facebook yesterday, and I am sticking to it. Northern areas may need a yardstick to measure snow with this one. The big concern is for sleet and freezing rain for western and eastern areas, with rain the dominant precipitation type over the far south. 

It's not about amounts of who gets what at this point, it's about impacts. Make sure you are ready for it. Check your storm supplies, fuel for your heat sources, and expect disruption in travel and potentially power supply.

NOTE: I am heading out of town Saturday afternoon to Boston for the American Meteorological Society Conference and will be there through Wednesday. I will do my best to update either here or on Facebook. I have a full plate of items to deal with between now and the time I get to Boston, but I will do my best to keep you posted. 

​Stay tuned. 

​► ► For the latest official forecasts, bulletins and advisories, please check in with the National Weather Service in Gray for western and southern areas, or Caribou for northern and eastern parts of Maine.

​► ► $65 shortfall for the year ahead! You can help keep Pine Tree Weather going with a donation of ANY amount now through VENMO @PineTreeWeather, a monthly donation on Patreon or messaging me on Facebook or Twitter to send a check in the mail. Thank you for your support!

For more information from me, please check the Pine Tree Weather Facebook page as well as my Twitter feed. 

Always stay weather aware!

​- Mike

I look at this model loop and see a couple key things to watch for. First, the storm passing to the southeast blowing up as it tracks along Georges Bank into Nova Scotia. Second, the flaring of a inversion band tail that may add a couple of bonus inches over central parts of the state. As we have seen this winter, these inverted troughs have a mind of their own. Some places get little to nothing. A couple miles up the street, a whole different story.

It could be a bit slick in spots for the Wednesday morning commute for all areas but the far north, so plan accordingly. 

The western border region with Quebec and DownEast areas have the best chance for 2"+ of snow from this event. Depending on if and where any banding sets up over central areas may bump the totals up into that range, also. For most of southern areas, it appears to be flakes to an 1". If the storm jogs a bit northwest, it could be 1-2" for Portland. 

As the storm intensifies over Atlantic Canada and dumps copious snow there, it hauls cold air down from the northwest Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Wind gusts 20-30 mph will drop wind chill values below zero for most locations, and blow snow around in areas which may cause whiteout conditions through midday.

One thing is for sure is there will be a storm, and it will likely bring some impacts to the region. Models are again aggressive with warm air overtaking the cold air at the surface, which I have a difficulty believing. With that in mind, it sets up potential for a period of freezing rain over interior areas. I don't want to sound alarmist, but it could be something to be concerned about.

​Stay tuned. 

​► ► For the latest official forecasts, bulletins and advisories, please check in with the National Weather Service in Gray for western and southern areas, or Caribou for northern and eastern parts of Maine.