Pine Tree Weather
  • DISCUSSIONS
  • DONATE
  • MAPS
  • NWS BRIEFINGS
  • SATRAD
  • MARINE
  • SNOW / ICE OUTLOOK
  • RAIN OUTLOOK
  • CPC OUTLOOK
  • Kennebunk
  • OBSERVING WEATHER
  • Who We Are
  • My Photography
  • DISCUSSIONS
  • DONATE
  • MAPS
  • NWS BRIEFINGS
  • SATRAD
  • MARINE
  • SNOW / ICE OUTLOOK
  • RAIN OUTLOOK
  • CPC OUTLOOK
  • Kennebunk
  • OBSERVING WEATHER
  • Who We Are
  • My Photography

Winter storm to affect Maine Sunday through Tuesday

11/30/2019

Comments

 

This is going to be a mess

Picture
I'll say it again as I did on Facebook Friday night, if you have to travel in or out of Maine, do it today. At the time of this post at 6 AM Saturday, winter storm warnings have gone into effect for western Massachusetts. Winter storm watches have been expanded across Southern New England and New Hampshire. While Cumberland and York County in Maine are the only two counties under watch now, there may be more areas that will be added to that list. 

Timing, wind, and snowfall through Monday

Picture
Southwestern Maine may not see much in the way of snowfall until late afternoon Sunday. By that time, it is well underway to the south and west. This is going cause big problems for southern New England, and will do so through Tuesday.
Picture
The storm isn't going to move a whole lot. It will be trapped within the region due to blocking. A cut-off upper level low won't get the kick it needs to move until Tuesday.
Picture
I mentioned on Facebook Friday that the storm is not vertically stacked. Given that fact, and that it is a slow mover, this presents all kinds of forecasting headaches. With due credit to the National Weather Service Gray office, the idea of a TROWAL comes into play. A TROWAL is the acronym for TRough Of Warm air ALoft which could bring sleet into the picture by midday on Monday. 
Picture
The next wrench is as the storm center approaches the benchmark point (40° N / 70° W) a new surface low begins to form to the northeast. It will be around this time that begins to happen. If it all stacks up right, it will get interesting.
Picture
Northeast winds will gradually increase Sunday night into Monday, and continue into Tuesday. As the storm shifts east, the direction shifts to the northwest and will continue to blow snow around Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Picture
Due to forecast uncertainty for Tuesday, and to clarify what to expect through Monday, I opted to provide the snowfall idea in stages to help you plan accordingly. 

With the TROWAL effect, along with a coastal front a likely possibility, that may cut snow totals down for a bit. This idea also contains the possibility of deformation bands developing, and if and where that happens, expect totals higher than this. 

With this type of set up, it would be wise to expect the unexpected. 

Tuesday

Picture
This loop at 3 hour stages starts Monday at 7 PM and runs through Wednesday 7 PM. This shows the new surface low forming to the northeast and then runs into an atmospheric road block, moves north into the Bay of Fundy before moving eastward. At least that is the idea for now. Northern and eastern areas may get their load from this before it is over.

Stay tuned. 

► ► For the latest official forecasts, bulletins and advisories, please check in with the National Weather Service in Gray for western and southern areas, or Caribou for northern and eastern parts of Maine.

Your support to keep this site going
would be much appreciated

Picture
​► ► $620 shortfall for the year ahead! You can help keep Pine Tree Weather going with a donation of any amount now through VENMO @PineTreeWeather, a monthly donation on Patreon or messaging me on Facebook or Twitter to send a check in the mail. Thank you for your support!

For more information from me, please check the Pine Tree Weather Facebook page as well as my Twitter feed. 

Always stay weather aware!

​- Mike
Comments
<<Previous
    Picture

    Mike Haggett
    Kennebunk, ME

    Certified Weather
    Forecaster
    Penn State '21

    American Meteorological Society

    National Weather Association

    Weather-Ready Nation 
    Ambassador
    ​
    ​SKYWARN-CWOP

    Matthew 19:26


    Support
    Pine Tree Weather

    DONATE

    Picture

    Picture

    Picture

    Picture

    Picture

    Picture

    Picture

    Picture

    Picture

    Picture

    Archives

    January 2023
    December 2022
    November 2022
    October 2022
    September 2022
    August 2022
    July 2022
    June 2022
    May 2022
    April 2022
    March 2022
    February 2022
    January 2022
    December 2021
    November 2021
    October 2021
    September 2021
    August 2021
    July 2021
    June 2021
    May 2021
    April 2021
    March 2021
    February 2021
    January 2021
    December 2020
    November 2020
    October 2020
    September 2020
    August 2020
    July 2020
    June 2020
    May 2020
    April 2020
    March 2020
    February 2020
    January 2020
    December 2019
    November 2019
    October 2019
    September 2019
    August 2019
    July 2019
    June 2019
    May 2019
    April 2019
    March 2019
    February 2019
    January 2019
    December 2018
    November 2018
    October 2018
    September 2018
    August 2018
    July 2018
    June 2018
    May 2018
    April 2018
    March 2018
    February 2018
    January 2018
    December 2017
    November 2017
    October 2017

    RSS Feed

Proudly powered by Weebly