Pine Tree Weather
  • DISCUSSIONS
  • DONATE
  • WEATHER WALL
  • MAPS
  • RAIN OUTLOOK
  • SEVERE
  • MARINE
  • CPC OUTLOOK
  • Kennebunk
  • MY BIO
  • PTW IN MEDIA
  • OBSERVING WEATHER
  • INTERNSHIPS
  • INTERN ALUMNI
  • DISCUSSIONS
  • DONATE
  • WEATHER WALL
  • MAPS
  • RAIN OUTLOOK
  • SEVERE
  • MARINE
  • CPC OUTLOOK
  • Kennebunk
  • MY BIO
  • PTW IN MEDIA
  • OBSERVING WEATHER
  • INTERNSHIPS
  • INTERN ALUMNI

A bit of ice to end the week; potential snow to start next week

12/26/2019

Comments

 

A few slick spots possible Friday

Picture
A winter weather advisory has been posted for parts of the state for some light icing, mainly for interior areas away from the shorelines. Warm air is expected to move in aloft while cold air holds on at the surface. In that situation, cold air damming becomes the concern. 

The good news is the amount of precipitation associated with this event is light. However, a light amount of ice is all it takes to cause problems on the roads, parking lots, and walkways. 
Picture
The main concern for ice accretion is for interior areas around and north of Route 2 in western areas, along with Greenville / Millinocket / Houlton areas and the central highlands. It will be greasy in spots Friday morning as precipitation overspreads the area. Conditions improve over western and southern areas Friday afternoon, and in the early evening over eastern and northern areas. 

If you are traveling, allow for extra time, and take it easy. 
Picture

Snow potential to start off next week

Picture
There is potential for a two day snow event for western and southern areas of the state Monday into Tuesday. Eastern areas may get in on the action Tuesday. Northern areas are a bit of a toss up of whether or not they get any snow accumulation out of this. 

A Colorado low moves into the Great Lakes and drags up moisture from the southwest and tries to bring a warm front into northern New England. It appears to run into a strong area of cold high pressure, and then stall. Where the warm front stalls will dictate who gets snow and/or a wintry mix and who won't on Monday. Energy from the Great Lakes low transfers into a coastal low, which intensifies as it moves eastward. 

With plenty of cold air and blocking to the north, the ingredients are on the table for a decent snow event. 

With the event four days out, it's early to anticipate snowfall amounts, and I caution the use 10:1 snow to water ratio deterministic / operational charts as a reference as there are potential changes. 
Picture
The European ensemble mean shows a healthy snow event, with 50%+ potential for 6"+ over western & southern areas, into the central highlands. This is the coldest solution. While it makes sense given the potential set up of the cold and blocking high pressure areas to the north, it depends on the strength of the high being strong to bring snow this far to south, and by that amount.
Picture
The Canadian GEM ensemble is not as strong with the high pressure, nor is it as bullish on precipitation amount. This has the warm front moving further north, and increases the chance for higher end snow over northern areas.
Picture
The GEFS ensemble shows a potential heavy snow event further to the north, with potential for 6" or more in the 90-100% range, which then the idea comes of potential of a foot or more in areas.  This is also the warmest solution, with the warm front moving well into the state.

This is three different ideas, with significant differences in outcomes. The sum total of this means there is potential for a decent snow event for the entire state. What will dictate the final outcome, will be the cold air,the strength and position of high pressure to the north and east, and where the coastal low organizes, intensifies, and tracks.  

Rule of thumb: never underestimate the influence of cold air. 

​► ► For the latest official forecasts, bulletins and advisories, please check in with the National Weather Service in Gray for western and southern areas, or Caribou for northern and eastern parts of Maine.

Your support is greatly appreciated
​to keep this site going!

Picture
► ► $300 shortfall for the year ahead! You can help keep Pine Tree Weather going with a donation of any amount now through VENMO @PineTreeWeather, a monthly donation on Patreon or messaging me on Facebook or Twitter to send a check in the mail. Thank you for your support!

For more information from me, please check the Pine Tree Weather Facebook page as well as my Twitter feed. 

Always stay weather aware!

​- Mike
Comments
    Picture

    Mike Haggett
    Kennebunk, ME

    Weather-Ready Nation
    Ambassador

    Certified Weather
    Forecaster
    Penn State '21

    American Meteorological Society

    National Weather Association
    ​
    ​SKYWARN-CWOP

    Matthew 19:26



    DONATE

    Picture
    Picture
    Picture
    Picture
    Picture

    Picture

    Picture

    Picture

    Picture

    Picture

    Picture

    Picture

    Picture

    Picture

    Picture

    Picture

    Picture


    Archives

    April 2025
    March 2025
    February 2025
    January 2025
    December 2024
    November 2024
    October 2024
    September 2024
    August 2024
    July 2024
    June 2024
    May 2024
    April 2024
    March 2024
    February 2024
    January 2024
    December 2023
    November 2023
    October 2023
    September 2023
    August 2023
    July 2023
    June 2023
    May 2023
    April 2023
    March 2023
    February 2023
    January 2023
    December 2022
    November 2022
    October 2022
    September 2022
    August 2022
    July 2022
    June 2022
    May 2022
    April 2022
    March 2022
    February 2022
    January 2022
    December 2021
    November 2021
    October 2021
    September 2021
    August 2021
    July 2021
    June 2021
    May 2021
    April 2021
    March 2021
    February 2021
    January 2021
    December 2020
    November 2020
    October 2020
    September 2020
    August 2020
    July 2020
    June 2020
    May 2020
    April 2020
    March 2020
    February 2020
    January 2020
    December 2019
    November 2019
    October 2019
    September 2019
    August 2019
    July 2019
    June 2019
    May 2019
    April 2019
    March 2019
    February 2019
    January 2019
    December 2018
    November 2018
    October 2018
    September 2018
    August 2018
    July 2018
    June 2018
    May 2018
    April 2018
    March 2018
    February 2018
    January 2018
    December 2017
    November 2017
    October 2017

Proudly powered by Weebly