Pine Tree Weather
  • DISCUSSIONS
  • DONATE
  • MAPS
  • NWS BRIEFINGS
  • SATRAD
  • MARINE
  • SNOW / ICE OUTLOOK
  • RAIN OUTLOOK
  • CPC OUTLOOK
  • Kennebunk
  • OBSERVING WEATHER
  • Who We Are
  • My Photography
  • DISCUSSIONS
  • DONATE
  • MAPS
  • NWS BRIEFINGS
  • SATRAD
  • MARINE
  • SNOW / ICE OUTLOOK
  • RAIN OUTLOOK
  • CPC OUTLOOK
  • Kennebunk
  • OBSERVING WEATHER
  • Who We Are
  • My Photography

A breezy Friday, snow for the weekend

12/17/2021

Comments

 
Before I get into the forecast, I would like to congratulate Nicholas Deamer and Aidan Toomey for graduation from Penn State. These two young men muscled through a tough four-year atmospheric science program with semester to spare, which deserves a tip of the hat in respect. Along those lines, Madelyn Skinner and Sean Melanson will return to assist over winter break, which I look forward to. All the students who have worked with me over the past couple of years have been wonderful to work with. Thanks to those who financially support Pine Tree Weather, this gives them an opportunity to sharpen their forecasting skills and communication of forecast impacts. I compensate each of these individuals for their efforts with a portion of the donations that I am blessed with, and I could not be more grateful to do so. 

A stiff breeze to end the week

Picture
If you have any holiday decorations that could go airborne, you'll want to secure them before you head out for the day. A wind advisory is in effect for the mountains and north through the afternoon where gusts could reach 50+ mph. Flying trash can status is on tap for urban areas, also.
Picture
Friday 6 AM to Saturday 6 PM - The breeze cranks up Friday morning and then slowly diminishes in the afternoon into early Saturday morning. This sets up the cold necessary for the snow event on the way Saturday afternoon into Sunday. 

The first solid snow event for southwestern areas on tap

Picture
Saturday 1 AM to Sunday 7 PM - A winter storm watch has been issued for southwestern areas of the state for the potential of 4-8" of snow starting Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning. The European model (above) and the American based guidance is more or less on board with that idea, but one model that is not is the Canadian (below) which has me a bit concerned for bust potential.  The European is a bit more robust, which is not a surprise as that is one of its faults. 
Picture
The Canadian operational idea here takes an already flat system and makes it flatter, ingesting more dry air into it with a bit less mid-level energy and thus reduces snowfall amounts. Keep this idea in mind if the forecast busts on the low end. 
Picture
There is enough of a case made here for around a 6" snowfall for southwestern areas. Most of this falls Saturday night and could fall at 1"+ per hour rates in spots during the overnight.  Snow ends from west to east Sunday morning.  

Expect a breezy day to clean up on Sunday as the storm intensifies on its way eastward. 

Model madness heading into the holiday week

Picture
Monday 1 AM to Sunday 7 PM - The idea that is relatively clear at this point is for a weak clipper to pass through Tuesday which brings snow showers to the mountains along with a reinforcing shot of cold air behind it for midweek. Operational models then present an idea of a coastal storm around Wednesday into Thursday, and a potential mess over the holiday weekend. 
Picture
The only thing that possesses any real certainty is the storm this weekend.  After that, there is a lot of noise on the operational ideas, but not a lot to back it up. Looking at teleconnection forecasts heading into late next week does give some credence to a storm around Christmas and the day after. For now, it is wait and see.

​Stay tuned. 
Picture

Picture

​Winter Forecasting: Uncertainty

The National Weather Service works hard to provide you with the most accurate forecasts possible, and their forecasts get more precise the closer to a big weather event. Learn more about how they update forecasts by watching this short video. 

Be prepared to receive alerts and stay updated!

Picture
​BE PREPARED WITH NOAA Weather Radio.
​​
​For $20-$40, it could provide vital information to you when you need it. The weather bands are standard on most public safety scanners, and newer scanner models. Weather radios can be programmed for auto alert. Click here for more information.

​► ► For the latest official forecasts, bulletins, and advisories, please check in with the National Weather Service in Gray for western and southern areas, or Caribou for northern and eastern parts of Maine.
Picture

Picture
For more information in between posts, please follow Pine Tree Weather on Facebook and Twitter. 

​Thank you for supporting this community-based weather information source which operates by reader supported financial contributions. 
​
​- Mike
Comments
    Picture

    Mike Haggett
    Kennebunk, ME

    Certified Weather
    Forecaster
    Penn State '21

    American Meteorological Society

    National Weather Association

    Weather-Ready Nation 
    Ambassador
    ​
    ​SKYWARN-CWOP

    Matthew 19:26


    Support
    Pine Tree Weather

    DONATE

    Picture

    Picture

    Picture

    Picture

    Picture

    Picture

    Picture

    Picture

    Picture

    Picture

    Archives

    January 2023
    December 2022
    November 2022
    October 2022
    September 2022
    August 2022
    July 2022
    June 2022
    May 2022
    April 2022
    March 2022
    February 2022
    January 2022
    December 2021
    November 2021
    October 2021
    September 2021
    August 2021
    July 2021
    June 2021
    May 2021
    April 2021
    March 2021
    February 2021
    January 2021
    December 2020
    November 2020
    October 2020
    September 2020
    August 2020
    July 2020
    June 2020
    May 2020
    April 2020
    March 2020
    February 2020
    January 2020
    December 2019
    November 2019
    October 2019
    September 2019
    August 2019
    July 2019
    June 2019
    May 2019
    April 2019
    March 2019
    February 2019
    January 2019
    December 2018
    November 2018
    October 2018
    September 2018
    August 2018
    July 2018
    June 2018
    May 2018
    April 2018
    March 2018
    February 2018
    January 2018
    December 2017
    November 2017
    October 2017

    RSS Feed

Proudly powered by Weebly