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A breezy Thursday before a stormy weekend

12/14/2022

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A blustery Wednesday

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It was a chilly and windy start in Wells Beach this morning as a result of the storm system to the east. Wind advisories have been dropped by both the Gray and Caribou weather offices as winds have dropped below threshold. With the Maritime low exiting, expect breezy conditions to continue through Thursday

The latest on the storm

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The one thing I haven't discussed much about is the amount of liquid involved with this system. It's a lot. With the high water content involved here, there is a lot of heavy snow involved, especially south of the mountains. This is heart-attack level concerns for shoveling here. Along with that, comes power outage concerns, which is another drum I have beat on all week. Between the heavy wet snow along with wind gusts 20-30 mph (coast 30-40+), there is potential for numerous power outages south and east of the mountains. 
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Thursday 7 PM to Sunday 7 PM - The track situation is now down to fine tuning. The general idea is for the low to track into the Gulf of Maine. There is potential for a stall out and for the surface low to run a counterclockwise loop. In this case, that would keep precipitation going longer. How much longer is not clear yet. My idea of timing is listed out in the forecast at the bottom of the post, and the end time for now is subject to change. 
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Winter storm watches have been issued for western and southern Maine with the exception of the shoreline areas. The word from the Caribou office is they are monitoring the situation and will decide when it is appropriate to issue watches or advisories overnight. 

The snowfall map is a moving target at this point for the coastal plain given the track of the low. A jog 30 miles east / southeast could be the difference of a couple inches and 4-8". For the snow removal crews along the shoreline counties, you should be ready in case your services are required. Further north into the mountains, confidence is high that snow and plenty of it will fall, and the closer to the Quebec border, the drier the flakes get. I went 8-14" for the peaks and could see 16-18" for the taller ski hills. 

The bottom line here for areas south and east of the mountains is BUST POTENTIAL is HIGH. The further southeast the low, snow totals go up. The closer to the shoreline, snow totals go down. 

Given the amount of water involved with this to the south, a sharp gradient cut-off is a fair bet if the forecast track stays close to current ideas or moves closer to the coast.

Current deficit for 2023 = $1,100 ... please support!

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Five day forecast through Monday

THURSDAY
BREEZY CONDITIONS STATEWIDE

Statewide: Sun & clouds to start, increasing clouds during the day
Mountains: Snow showers possible
Wind: N/NE 5-15 G20-30
Lows in the 20s for most
Highs 30s North & Mountains, around 40 south and east
Windchill 20s/30s

FRIDAY
WINTER STORM WATCH
HEAVY WET SNOW POTENTIAL
WIND INCREASING DURING THE DAY INTO OVERNIGHT SATURDAY
TRAVEL IMPACT CONCERNS
POWER OUTAGE POTENTIAL

South, Mountains, MidCoast: Precipitation begins early Friday, expands northeast by midday
North & East: Mainly cloudy with precipitation beginning Friday afternoon into the overnight Saturday
Wind: E/NE 5-15 G20-30 for the interior, 30-40+ coast / mountains
Lows 20s for most, 30s along the coast
Highs 30s North, near 40 shorelines
Windchill 10s/20s

SATURDAY
WINTER STORM WATCH
HEAVY WET SNOW POTENTIAL

WIND CONTINUES
TRAVEL IMPACT CONCERNS
POWER OUTAGE POTENTIAL

Precipitation continues through the day, ending Saturday night over the south.
Snow showers continues for the north, mountains and east into Sunday.

Wind: NE 5-15 G20-30 shifting NW 5-15 G20s over the west & south in the afternoon. 
Lows in the 20s North & Mountains, 30s elsewhere
Highs in the 30s over the interior, 40s along the coast
Windchill 20s/30s

SUNDAY
BREEZY CONDITIONS STATEWIDE
SNOW CONTINUES NORTH, MOUNTAINS, EAST

North, Mountains, East: Occasional snow, ending overnight Monday
South: Mostly Cloudy with a chance of a snow shower, sunny breaks possible late day
Wind: NW 5-15 G20-30 Mountains & South, NE 5-15 G20 North & East
Lows in the 20s for most, around 30 east
Highs in the 30s for most, around 40 along the shorelines of the southwest coast
Windchill mainly in the 20s


MONDAY
BREEZY CONDITIONS STATEWIDE

Mountains & North: Mainly cloudy with a chance for snow showers
East: Morning snow showers possible with gradual clearing
South: Sun & clouds
Wind: NW 10-20 G25-35 (mountains 40+)
Lows in the 20s for most
Highs in the low 30s north and mountains, mid-30s to around 40 coastal plain
Windchill 10s/20s

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Stay updated, stay on alert, and stay safe!

- Mike

​NOTE: The forecast information depicted on this platform is for general information purposes only for the public and is not designed or intended for commercial use. For those seeking pinpoint weather information for business operations, you should use a private sector source. For information about where to find commercial forecasters to assist your business, please message me and I will be happy to help you.

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    Mike Haggett
    Kennebunk, ME

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