Pine Tree Weather
  • DISCUSSIONS
  • DONATE
  • MAPS
  • NWS BRIEFINGS
  • SATRAD
  • MARINE
  • SNOW / ICE OUTLOOK
  • RAIN OUTLOOK
  • CPC OUTLOOK
  • Kennebunk
  • OBSERVING WEATHER
  • Who We Are
  • My Photography
  • DISCUSSIONS
  • DONATE
  • MAPS
  • NWS BRIEFINGS
  • SATRAD
  • MARINE
  • SNOW / ICE OUTLOOK
  • RAIN OUTLOOK
  • CPC OUTLOOK
  • Kennebunk
  • OBSERVING WEATHER
  • Who We Are
  • My Photography

A calm Thanksgiving ahead of storm for Black Friday

11/25/2021

Comments

 
Before I get into the forecast, I wish you a Happy Thanksgiving. Holidays can come with joy, and also with mixed emotions. It has been an emotional roller-coaster ride for me this November, thinking of family members lost, and my recent 30-year anniversary in recovery from alcoholism and addiction. Sadness and joy. One thing I have learned over the years is that gratitude is love in action. What I do here helps me through the grieving process of my father, whom I lost in March of 2006, and to give back to a world that has been good to me. I am grateful that you are a part of this journey with me over the past 10 years, and in some cases much longer than that. It makes it worth it to get out of bed at 3 AM on a holiday to formulate a forecast, build graphics and write it out. 

I pray that each of you have a good holiday and enjoy the blessings of the day. 

A terrific turkey day

Picture
Outside of a breeze for DownEast areas associated with a slowly departing storm that has hammered Atlantic Canada for two days, it appears to be a generally quiet day. Clouds begin to filter the sun over western as southern areas in the afternoon, a precursor to the storm on the way for Black Friday. 

A tricky storm for Friday

Picture
Friday 1 AM to Saturday 7 PM - This loop here looks at a model idea for 1-hour snowfall rates. It's important to note a couple of things here, rain is also a factor, as is snow to water ratios. Along with that, I don't think models have completely figured this out yet as they are flip-flopping worse than a politician. The issue is timing on development of a secondary low over the Gulf of Maine. This plays a huge role on the injection of cold and how much snow falls. The models are hinting that cold air could play more of an outcome in the final result, which makes sense given the dynamics. 
Picture
NWS Gray has issued a winter storm watch for Coos County New Hampshire. NWS Caribou has a winter storm watch for northeast and northwest Aroostook, northern Somerset and northern Piscataquis counties. This is shaping up to be a two-day event for the mountains, as upslope snow showers continue well into Saturday as a northwesterly wind cranks on the backside of this. I can see the idea 6-10" of snow for the Rangeley-Carrabassett-Eustis-Jackman region if this comes together in time. 

Snow to water ratios make forecasting snowfall amounts more difficult south and east of the mountains. The closer to the coast, the wetter the snow gets. Once the storm moves east, drier air cuts off the moisture, which would allow flakes to accumulate better. For more on snow to water ratios, I have a graphic further down in this post that helps explain it. 

As mentioned here in the previous update, my hunch for added snowfall over eastern areas appears to have a chance to happen, and thus I increased my idea there.

Picture

Tracking a potential coastal storm Monday

Picture
Saturday 7 PM to Monday 7 PM - This loop shows two things. High pressure works in for Sunday and shuts the wind down after a breezy Saturday. Another trough works southeast and tucks itself under the trough that impacts the region over the weekend and spins up low pressure over the MidAtlantic and moves northeastward. This could bring snow to coastal areas of Maine to start Monday. Ensemble ideas are relatively flat on intensity at this point, but there is time for that to change. Stay tuned for updates on that over the weekend.
Picture

More about snow ratios

Picture

​Be prepared to receive alerts and stay updated!

Picture
​BE PREPARED WITH A NOAA Weather Radio.
​
​For $20-$40, it could provide vital information to you when you need it. The weather bands are standard on most public safety scanners, and newer scanner models. Weather radios can be programmed for auto alert. Click here for more information.

​​​​► ► For the latest official forecasts, bulletins, and advisories, please check in with the National Weather Service in Gray for western and southern areas, or Caribou for northern and eastern parts of Maine.
Picture

Picture
For more information in between posts, please follow Pine Tree Weather on Facebook and Twitter. 

​Thank you for supporting this community-based weather information source which operates by reader supported financial contributions. 
​
​- Mike
Comments
    Picture

    Mike Haggett
    Kennebunk, ME

    Certified Weather
    Forecaster
    Penn State '21

    American Meteorological Society

    National Weather Association

    Weather-Ready Nation 
    Ambassador
    ​
    ​SKYWARN-CWOP

    Matthew 19:26


    Support
    Pine Tree Weather

    DONATE

    Picture

    Picture

    Picture

    Picture

    Picture

    Picture

    Picture

    Picture

    Picture

    Picture

    Archives

    January 2023
    December 2022
    November 2022
    October 2022
    September 2022
    August 2022
    July 2022
    June 2022
    May 2022
    April 2022
    March 2022
    February 2022
    January 2022
    December 2021
    November 2021
    October 2021
    September 2021
    August 2021
    July 2021
    June 2021
    May 2021
    April 2021
    March 2021
    February 2021
    January 2021
    December 2020
    November 2020
    October 2020
    September 2020
    August 2020
    July 2020
    June 2020
    May 2020
    April 2020
    March 2020
    February 2020
    January 2020
    December 2019
    November 2019
    October 2019
    September 2019
    August 2019
    July 2019
    June 2019
    May 2019
    April 2019
    March 2019
    February 2019
    January 2019
    December 2018
    November 2018
    October 2018
    September 2018
    August 2018
    July 2018
    June 2018
    May 2018
    April 2018
    March 2018
    February 2018
    January 2018
    December 2017
    November 2017
    October 2017

    RSS Feed

Proudly powered by Weebly