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A coastal brush for Saturday PM; midweek snow thoughts

1/4/2019

Comments

 

Down East areas may pick up a bit of snow

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An ocean storm passing to the southeast appears to graze the coastal plain with some precipitation. The timing of the precipitation appears to be mid to late afternoon for the southwest coast and early to mid-evening for DownEast areas. Temperatures are likely to be falling when the precipitation arrives. For southwestern areas, this is a mainly rain event with a chance for some snow showers after dark, with little accumulation. The Penobscot Bay area may see rain switch to snow showers, and perhaps a touch of sleet and/or freezing rain. DownEast areas from Bar Harbor to Eastport could see a coating to a couple inches of snow by the time precipitation ends in the wee hours of Sunday. 

Tuesday / Wednesday likely snowy, but not a big event

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I am backing off the idea of a full on NorEaster, but snow is definitely in the offing for Tuesday and Wednesday next week.  Models have backed off the idea of the intensification of a secondary low forming in the Gulf of Maine. The other issue is moisture. NorEasters depend on a strong moisture stream from the southwest in order to produce copious snow amounts. What moisture (the hose) that gets picked up by the frontal boundary crossing eastward gets cut off thanks to two areas of high pressure to the southeast and southwest. 

For now, I am thinking this is a general 3-6" snowstorm. That said, another tricky inversion may set up and enhance snow totals in Wednesday. 

This is NOT the final answer. Stay tuned. 

Outlook through Wednesday

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​For the latest official forecasts, bulletins and advisories, please check in with the National Weather Service in Gray for western and southern areas, or Caribou for northern and eastern parts of Maine.

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​- Mike
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    Mike Haggett
    Kennebunk, ME

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