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A taste of mid-summer before a trip backwards to mid-April

6/1/2023

Comments

 

Record highs possible for northern areas

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June 1st is the start of meteorological summer, and it will feel that way across interior Maine. While it will be hot, the humidity appears to be nominal. Where the dew points rise into the 60s appear primarily along the coastal plain, thanks to a southwest wind direction that brings in moisture off the ocean. For those fortunate to have the day off, the tides are running perfect for plenty of room at the seaside beaches in the afternoon to escape the heat.

A new record high was established in Caribou on Wednesday. There is a good chance new record highs could be established or tied in several of the long-term observation sites. With overnight lows being warm at the high end, some new records for minimum maximums are possible as well.

With the warmth comes the threat of isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon into the overnight...
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Thursday 3 PM to Friday 6 AM - Any showers or storms that pop are expected to be widely scattered in nature with the better chance over the north and east. The severe risk is minimal given the lack of wind shear. The atmosphere is also lacking moisture with the lower dew point values, which minimizes the downpour and flash flooding threat. Some areas could hear some overnight rumbles of thunder as the backdoor cold front approaches on Friday. 

More showers and storms on the way Friday

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Friday 6 AM to Saturday 2 AM - Early morning showers and rumbles taper off and the sky begins to clear out over the southern two-thirds of the region. Heat will build up again with dew points rising up into the 60s over the south and west. With the front approaching, showers and storms are expected to be more widespread. The dynamics are favored for isolated severe storms, which may contain damaging wind, hail, and localized flash flooding from downpours. Guidance has been hinting at a slowdown of the frontal boundary as it heads towards the Gulf of Maine later in the day on Friday. That sets up potential for heavy rain showers to persist over southwestern areas Travel Friday evening could be a bit rough with the rain reducing visibility and the outside threat for strong to severe storms. 
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As the front descends into the region, temperatures are expected to crash. Expect a prolonged period of well below normal temperatures to begin starting on Saturday.

Blocking pattern to keep the region cool
​and unsettled into next week

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A blocking ridge to the northeast and the northwest parks an upper-level low over the region and stays in the area for much of, if not all of, next week. This keeps temperatures down. Saturday and Sunday are likely to feel like mid-April with highs only in the 50s. This will also keep showers in the forecast as well as waves spin around the upper-low, along with a reinforcing charge to come from the northwest heading into midweek.

​The position of the upper low is critical here. Guidance is varied in both operational and ensemble ideas as to what happens with it.  The 12z European operational model from Wednesday tossed the idea out of a potential NorEaster to develop that potentially could drop a month's worth of rainfall over parts of the region. That idea was short lived, but ensembles still hint that the idea is still alive. I don't see how the upper-low doesn't spin a strong storm up out of it. It's a matter of where it goes, when it happens, and IF it brings impact to Maine.

Stay tuned!

Temperature outlook through Tuesday

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​NOTE: The forecast information depicted on this platform is for general information purposes only for the public and is not designed or intended for commercial use. For those seeking pinpoint weather information for business operations, you should use a private sector source. For information about where to find commercial forecasters to assist your business, please message me and I will be happy to help you.

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    Mike Haggett
    Kennebunk, ME

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    Jenna Gurtz
    Buffalo Grove, IL

    B.A. Atmospheric Science
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    Campus Weather Service
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    ​Penn State '25


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    Trey Austin
    Raleigh, NC

    Atmospheric Science 
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    Harry Fuess
    East Lansing, MI

    Atmospheric
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    Michigan State '26


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    Daniel Weaver
    North Wales, PA

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