Not bad for late July The blast furnace over much of the country has been turned down. A strong ridge moving in off the Pacific brings heat to the northwest, while temperatures elsewhere are expected to run within a few degrees of normal. For those of us in the northeast, a pleasant day ahead with comfortable humidity levels and slightly above average high temperatures is expected. A warm front moves into the area Thursday afternoon and brings the risk of showers and storms into Thursday night.  For the early birds, there could be areas of patchy fog around in spots that should dissipate as the atmosphere warms up. It will be a great day to play hooky and go for a hike, bike ride, visit a state park, or do whichever outdoor activity you prefer. An interesting set up to round out the week I've been watching the set up for Thursday and Friday rather intently over the past couple of days. Any time a warm front is involved in summer in Maine, experience over the years has taught me to pay close attention. Storm Prediction Center has most of the region in marginal risk for isolated severe storms as of their Day 2 outlook posted early Wednesday morning. The timing of the arrival of showers and storms towards the latter part of the day over western and southern areas may bring a surprise to the unsuspecting.  Thursday Noon to Friday 2 AM - Folks along the coastal plain are likely to feel a surge of sticky air as precipitable water values push upwards of 2" driving dew points into the upper 60s to low 70s Thursday afternoon. Wind shear speeds could reach 40-55 knots as a rather stiff low-level jet moves in ahead of the front. Looking at other parameters, there is some decent low-level spin, but poor mid-level temperature lapse rates diffuse the threat for widespread storms. The idea of tall, skinny CAPE (convective available potential energy) presents the idea of isolated storms that could cause a tornado or two., if not, a damaging wind threat, and perhaps some hail. With the surge of moisture. areas of torrential downpours are possible. The late day timing works against activity to get out of hand for too long, but rumbles of thunder are possible in the overnight hours. Those in the western and southern areas have a better chance of seeing strong to severe storms through mid-evening. The other wrench in this is some guidance have been flirting with the idea of low pressure forming along the coast Thursday evening. This would be a godsend as it would bring a soaking rain to drought parched coastal regions. I don't want to raise hopes of it, but the idea is out there. Lord knows we need the rain. Cold front brings showers and storms Friday, |
Mike Haggett
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