A quick status update before I get into the outlook to say that my hands are doing better. I backed off social media since Thursday morning and did the bare minimum keyboard work as I could the rest of the week and stayed off everything on Saturday to give the digits a rest.
So about that backloaded winter I have talked about since Christmas...
Clipper to bring snow Sunday
A clipper system passes through the region on Sunday and has enough juice to bring some high fluff potential snow across the region. The National Weather Service Caribou office has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for Coastal Hancock and Coastal Washington Counties from noon Sunday to 4 AM Monday.
Sunday 10 AM to Monday 7 AM - Snow breaks out across the region by midday and streams from northwest to southeast during the afternoon and into the night. . This big fluff event, with 20:1 snow to water ratios possible here, which would essentially double the output you see in the hourly forecast idea shown above. The icy nature of the snow is likely to create some slick spots, especially for the less travelled roads. for most of the area.
There is the potential for enhancement of snowfall for MidCoast and DownEast coastal areas given the warm ocean temperatures and low pressure forming over the Gulf of Maine. Areas east of Penobscot Bay have the better chance for higher totals as the forecast snowfall map indicates. That said, Folks in the Knox County and Coastal Waldo County areas should take note of the potential for additional accumulations.
The region to be caught in split flow pickle for Tuesday
Red flags all over the place on this storm as it could go either way on higher or lower snowfall accumulations given the set up. There will be plenty of cold air around, so there is little chance of any junk (sleet, freezing rain) with the possible exception of the offshore islands. The southern stream holds the card on how this one plays out.
Monday 7 PM to Wednesday 7 PM - Three features here to watch in this European ensemble mean loop. The first is the weakening low travelling from Manitoba into Hudson Bay. The second is low pressure that is siphoning off energy from that near the Great Lakes. The third is the developing ocean storm off the MidAtlantic coast that will steal the energy from the Great Lakes system. A cold front forms along all three areas of low pressure and moves east toward Maine Monday night and Tuesday, and slowly passes through Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Tuesday 1 AM to Wednesday 1 PM - The sum of the ingredients creates an elongated and slow-moving inverted trough set up which is what will bring snow to the region. This is where the forecast gets a bit dicey. If the southern stream and developing coastal low comes in a bit further north towards the benchmark 40° N / 70° W point, that would bring more snow to southwestern areas. On the flip side, if it tracks further south, it would bring less snow.
Expect the morning commute to be slick over the south and west to start off. Most areas with the possible exception of northeast Aroostook are likely to have impacts for the evening commute. Eastern areas including Bangor may see a slick start to Wednesday but should see improvement as the front exits to the east by mid-morning.
The jury is out right now on whether mixing along the coast may occur. There will be a northeast wind associated with this that may draw in warmer air from the ocean. I've included that potential in the forecast map for now. I do expect a breezy day across the region in the 20-30+ mph range (higher gusts for the coast, potentially mountains as well) which will blow the snow around and may cause some brief whiteout conditions and some minor drifting.
Another storm Thursday;