A beneficial soaker for many areas expected For those of you who follow on Twitter may see posts like this one that indicate excessive rainfall potential when issued by the Weather Prediction Center. What does this mean? Flash flood potential. With the tropical nature of the system on the way into the region, precipitable water values are expected to skyrocket into 1½-2½" range, which pushes dew points to the upper 60s to low 70s. That kind of moisture with areas of thunderstorms brings torrential rainfall with high rainfall rates. The cynical adage in the weather world is that droughts don't end well. While I don't consider this event to be a drought buster, it should make a dent in the deficit in many areas. As dry as it has been, heavy rain on top of dry, parched soil sets up runoff because the ground cannot absorb the rainwater fast enough. This is where the flash flood concern comes in. For folks camping out, please respect the potential here. For those sites near brooks and streams, what may look beautiful and tranquil Monday morning could become violent and dangerous by Tuesday morning. An idea on rainfall 1-2" is the general outlook for the area, with localized higher amounts 3-5"+ where thunderstorms occur. The air gets soupier as it goes along While the humidity may not feel that bad to start off, that changes by Monday night. A tropical warm front moves into the area which increases clouds. Given the saturation and the warm air over the cooler ocean with an onshore flow, that sets up fog potential, with a better chance of it for the MidCoast and DownEast regions through Tuesday. Given the expected rainfall with high humidity, interior areas may be dealing with areas of fog Tuesday morning  Monday 11 AM to 11 PM - Clouds increase through the day as the warm front approaches the region. Areas of rain and thunderstorms are expected to break out in the afternoon. Far northern areas stay dry through the day until showers arrive later at night. Expect heavy rain to cause ponding on roadways, which could set up potential hydroplane issues on the highways. Localized damaging wind is possible in thunderstorm activity where storms could reach severe levels. Storms are expected through the night. There is also the risk of tornadic activity given the tropical nature of the system. While that risk is very low, it cannot be dismissed. Areas of heavy rain and storms continue into Tuesday Monday 11 PM to Tuesday 11 AM - Showers and storms are expected to continue into the wee hours of the night then taper off from southwest to northeast into Tuesday morning. Very humid conditions are expected as dew points remain high as the region enters into the warm sector. Expect areas of fog around to start the day given the amount of rain from the hours previous. Scattered showers with strong to severe storms |
Mike Haggett
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