Breezy, dry conditions Tuesday; ocean storm likely to bring breeze, rain and surf through the weekend

Synopsis outlook: Coastal areas need to pay attention

As the cold front that passed through the region Monday night heads out to sea, an ocean storm develops and becomes trapped due to high pressure to the west, north, and east. The storm will be flirting with the 40°N / 70°W benchmark area, and will be close enough to bring impacts to parts of the state beginning Wednesday, and could linger through Sunday.

A dry, breezy day Tuesday

As the cold front moves offshore, any showers early end and the sky will begin to break up. A northwesterly flow brings drier air into the region. For southern areas, this may be the last dry day for several days.

Wind gusts could range in the 15-25 mph range in areas through the day, settling down this evening.

Clouds increase and rain develops
​over southern areas Wednesday

Folks in the north and mountains run the risk of patchy frost Wednesday morning as a clear sky will help temperatures fall. Clouds along the coast will help insulate the temperatures and hold the lows to around 40°.

High temperatures appear to be flirting with the 60° mark for most of the state, with the higher elevations reaching the mid-50s for a high point. A northeast breeze from the ocean storm to the south will increase and bring gusty wind to the shorelines.

Along with the breeze, the outer rain shield from the storm pushes north against dry high pressure. Best chance for showers with any sort of rain accumulation appears to be for southern Maine. Spot shower activity to bring a sprinkle or trace amounts of rain is possible for DownEast areas over to the western foothills. 

With a clear sky in the north, temperatures fall into the 30s with a risk of frost Thursday morning. Clouds from the ocean storm keep the rest of the state around 40°.

Surf and rain thoughts heading into the weekend

We usually get one good corker of an ocean storm in October, and while it is early in the month, this may be the one. Southern New England appears to get hammered with the worst of it. With coastal Maine being on the outskirts, the battle between high pressure and the storm will ultimately decide how much rain the coastal plain receives, and how much wind. The idea of strong surf remains consistent. Our shorelines are likely to see a multi-day battering to some degree, with beach erosion and splash-over a strong possibility. Tides are slowly moving higher as we head towards a full moon early next week.

For now, southerns areas have the best chance to get the most rain from this storm. Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island are likely to deal with flooding from heavy rain that will go on for days, 

There is still a certain level of forecast uncertainty, but confidence is increasing that the coastal plain and shorelines are likely to have a rough few days ahead starting Wednesday.

More updates to come. 

► ► For the latest official forecasts, bulletins and advisories, please check in with the National Weather Service in Gray for western and southern areas, or Caribou for northern and eastern parts of Maine.

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​- Mike