Don't let this weeks warm up fool you; pot holes, frost heaves, mud and flood season is coming; light snow Wednesday night

Winter isn't over just yet

While the forecast calls for warmer weather, the region hasn't seen the last of the snow flakes just yet. It seems as though every year we get a warm up in March, and for those who are done with winter get excited that spring is here. The reality check comes when more snow arrives, and the forecast gets either ecstatic or angry responses. 

In the nearly 50 years I have lived here, this is what I know to be true. It can snow anytime and anywhere in March. We have the annual April Fools Day storm, which occurs within a day or two of that point, and can bring snow, a mixed bag, or rain, and one, two or all three of those combinations. After that, snow chances typically begin to taper off as we head into April. 

The coast typically sees the end of the season first, usually after the first full week in April. The western foothills on up into interior Washington County typically see the last flakes by the middle of April. The mountains and north could see the last flakes as late as the first of May. There are always anomalies to that. Yes, I am well aware the Portland's latest snow date is May 10-11, 1945 where 7.0" of snow fell.  I also remember vividly the April 6-7, 1982 snow storm where nearly 16" of snow impacted the region.  In the past 8 years I have been forecasting, I've had snow flurries on the chart for the north country in early May. It happens, which is why I am getting out in front of this and telling you that it's not time to put away the snow shovels and take the plow off the truck just yet, no matter how happy or tired of it you may be. 

No, I am not predicting that we are going to get clobbered with some epic dumper that is in the long range forecast that I am not telling you about. In fact, for now, none exists. What I am saying is that I am not prepared to stick a fork in winter and tell you that it is over. You'll know when the time comes, and you will be free to celebrate or cry, whichever suits your emotions around it. 

Deep snow leads to pot holes, frost heaves,
​mud and flood season

I've chirped about this on Twitter and have mentioned it here in discussions, there is significant water that lies in the snow pack in the north and mountains, roughly 7-14" of it. When we have rain and fog, that snow pack melts. It runs into brooks, streams and rivers, and there we begin to have issues. 

One of many side effect of all that water is mud season in the north country is going to be ugly this year. That is a lot of water waiting to be released. For those who live on dirt roads or have dirt driveways, I know that pain all too well. Keep the chains handy and have people available to unplug you if you need it. 

The region had warm ups in December and January where ice jams developed on some of the rivers and larger streams. This is where it gets interesting when there is rain  and above freezing temperatures for a few days in the forecast. Granted, the deep snow pack will absorb quite a bit of water, but that water has to drain somewhere, eventually. 

Folks who have flood prone basements need to make sure their sump pump is in working order and drain free of ice as we head into the weekend and time going forward.

If you live, have a business, work, or commute near a river, stream, or brook in a fresh water flood zone, you'll want to pay very close attention to the forecast in the coming days and weeks ahead. 

It all depends on how quickly the snow melts. It will get a start later this week. I suspect some areas where ice jams are already an issue may see some level of flood potential through the weekend. 

Using Fryeburg forecast data as a gauge as it is fair balance between the coast and the mountains, this better depicts the roller coaster ride we are on. The state will warm up later in the week, and then head south as we start next week. The warm up is a bit of a tease to coming attractions, but as cold air settles back into the region, that settles the flood threat temporarily. On the flip side, it brings the chance for snow back into the discussion. 

Until night time lows climb above 32° on a consistent basis, the snow threat remains. We're not there yet. 

The good news is I can say with good confidence that below 0° temps are pretty much done for the year. Sure, Estcourt Station or Big Black River will make a fool out of me at least once or twice since I said that, but the widespread below zeros are over. My "Freezer Burn" wind chill graphic has been put away until next winter.  Other than that, winter continues for now. 

This is legit now. With the melting and run off, puddles on roadways could be hiding craters for pot holes. Note that anything that melts freezes up overnight, making black ice which could cause bad accidents from careless driving.

​Since my real job is in commercial and passenger vehicle parts and repair business, I know the costs and see the pain with customers paying their bills. Sure, you can go 50-60+ mph down the road, but if you hit a pot hole or frost heave at at that speed, you can expect a $1000-$2000+ repair bill to your car, not to mention cause a potential accident which could be life threatening. 

It will take all summer to repair what was torn up this winter, just to do it all over again next winter. The vicious cycle of Maine weather continues. 

A bit of snow Wednesday night

As warm air moves northeast, an upper level trough cuts across the top of the building ridge and bring areas of light snow Wednesday night, ending in the wee hours of Thursday. The higher elevations may get an inch or so, a dusting to an inch elsewhere. This may cause some slick roads overnight into the Thursday morning commute in areas. With temperatures rising, this will melt during the day on Thursday. 

Statewide rain remains in the forecast for Friday. I will have more details on that in an update tomorrow. 

Regional outlook through Saturday

Again, watch for areas of black ice in the overnight hours into the morning commute through late week. What thaws will refreeze everywhere. 

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Always stay weather aware! 

​- Mike