Forecast overdone, my take; squall potential through the evening

Time to own some humble pie

This is like the third or fourth "flat" system this winter that turned into a bust. I am not going to make any excuses, but I do believe that it is worth an explanation. 

Analysis from 10 AM Thursday shows the disorganized low. This is due to the positive nature of the upper level trough moving east. That elongated area of low pressure over the Mid-Atlantic and low off to the east of Cape Cod was thought to come in a bit tighter... 

This would have brought in more snow for coastal areas, hence why I opted for the forecast I did. Obviously, it did not, so consequently snow totals are lower and temperatures a bit higher, which is assisting keeping the roads clear along the coast. Sometimes forecasts are on tight margins of error with temperature and timing. I though the cold would hold on and the low pressure systems riding along the frontal boundary would hold together better. They did not, so my forecast for the morning part of the day was a bust. That is on me. 

A couple things in regards to this afternoon... what is left of the moisture in the area around midday moves away from the east. As the arctic front approaches from the northwest, snow showers and snow squalls are possible. Some squalls may be strong enough to trigger an alert. If you get caught driving in a snow squall, pull over to the side of the road and turn on your four way hazard lights and wait it out until better visibility occurs. Roads could become snow covered quickly, which may create some slick spots. 

For MidCoast areas, there is potential for an inverted trough to set up this evening, which may bring a bonus inch or two of snow there, so be aware of that. 

WIND CHILL ADVISORY TONIGHT... bundle up, and stay warm.

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​- Mike