Pine Tree Weather
  • DISCUSSIONS
  • DONATE
  • WEATHER WALL
  • MAPS
  • RAIN OUTLOOK
  • SEVERE
  • MARINE
  • CPC OUTLOOK
  • Kennebunk
  • MY BIO
  • PTW IN MEDIA
  • OBSERVING WEATHER
  • INTERNSHIPS
  • INTERN ALUMNI
  • DISCUSSIONS
  • DONATE
  • WEATHER WALL
  • MAPS
  • RAIN OUTLOOK
  • SEVERE
  • MARINE
  • CPC OUTLOOK
  • Kennebunk
  • MY BIO
  • PTW IN MEDIA
  • OBSERVING WEATHER
  • INTERNSHIPS
  • INTERN ALUMNI

Freeze watch for Friday morning and Teddy to keep an eye on

9/16/2020

Comments

 
Picture
9-16-20 #MEwx WEDNESDAY Update - FREEZE WATCH posted for overnight Thursday into Friday; Watching #TEDDY - PLEASE READ

ProTip: Click on image to view in theater mode on PC

First and foremost... overnight Thursday into Friday could be the end of growing season for many areas of the state. Both NWS Gray and NWS Caribou have issued freeze watches for areas away from the coast.

Thursday sees some light shower activity around as a weak cold front passes through. This front will get the smoke out the the region temporarily. It could come back early next week.

Now, onto Teddy. As I mentioned yesterday, it is something to keep watch on. What you see here is an ensemble spread of ideas from the European model. It's looks like the unpleasant aftermath of a long night out. In all seriousness, this shows multiple outcomes of where the storm may go.

It's not by mistake I am studying tropical forecasting right now.

When looking at long range forecasting, ensembles are a better indication of what -could- happen as they present a range of possibilities. In this case, there are many possible outcomes... 51 of them in fact.

It is -WAY- too early to pinpoint what is going to happen here. For the record, the European model is the only model for now that even hints that the storm could reach Maine. This means it is an outlier. That said, it's presenting a case for itself, and it is not out of the realm of possibility at this point that Maine could see some effects from the storm. At the very least, high surf.

We're NOT in panic mode here. I've seen big jumps in guidance happen from run to run over the years. Truth be known, the only data the European model is going off of is satellite data for the most part. A lot can change here. There are more questions than answers, as the chart provided here indicates.

This is simply a courtesy notification that Teddy could be in the neighborhood. It's something to watch, it is something to stay updated on. There will be more clarification as to how this will play out. We're roughly a week out for now.

Stay in touch with 
NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center
 as well as 
US National Weather Service Gray ME
 and 
US National Weather Service Caribou ME
 and updates will come here when time permits.

At the very least, this would be a good time to look over storm supplies and think about what you need to do in order to prepare this weekend IF the region were to receive a storm out of this. If not for this storm, others will come soon enough.

Stay updated!

​- Mike

​
Comments
    Picture

    Mike Haggett
    Kennebunk, ME

    Weather-Ready Nation
    Ambassador

    Certified Weather
    Forecaster
    Penn State '21

    American Meteorological Society

    National Weather Association
    ​
    ​SKYWARN-CWOP

    Matthew 19:26



    DONATE

    Picture
    Picture
    Picture
    Picture
    Picture

    Picture

    Picture

    Picture

    Picture

    Picture

    Picture

    Picture

    Picture

    Picture

    Picture

    Picture

    Picture


    Archives

    May 2025
    April 2025
    March 2025
    February 2025
    January 2025
    December 2024
    November 2024
    October 2024
    September 2024
    August 2024
    July 2024
    June 2024
    May 2024
    April 2024
    March 2024
    February 2024
    January 2024
    December 2023
    November 2023
    October 2023
    September 2023
    August 2023
    July 2023
    June 2023
    May 2023
    April 2023
    March 2023
    February 2023
    January 2023
    December 2022
    November 2022
    October 2022
    September 2022
    August 2022
    July 2022
    June 2022
    May 2022
    April 2022
    March 2022
    February 2022
    January 2022
    December 2021
    November 2021
    October 2021
    September 2021
    August 2021
    July 2021
    June 2021
    May 2021
    April 2021
    March 2021
    February 2021
    January 2021
    December 2020
    November 2020
    October 2020
    September 2020
    August 2020
    July 2020
    June 2020
    May 2020
    April 2020
    March 2020
    February 2020
    January 2020
    December 2019
    November 2019
    October 2019
    September 2019
    August 2019
    July 2019
    June 2019
    May 2019
    April 2019
    March 2019
    February 2019
    January 2019
    December 2018
    November 2018
    October 2018
    September 2018
    August 2018
    July 2018
    June 2018
    May 2018
    April 2018
    March 2018
    February 2018
    January 2018
    December 2017
    November 2017
    October 2017

Proudly powered by Weebly